Stats Prediction
Result probability
50%
24%
26%
Nantes 50%
Draw 24%
Metz 26%
1.7 – 1.1
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-1
11% chance
Most Likely Score
54%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
56%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
NAN · at home
MET · away
1.27
Goals scored per game
0.90
1.36
Goals conceded per game
1.90
0.89x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
0.84x
1.27x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
1.33x
Average: 1.43 home goals and 1.07 away goals per game in Ligue 1 2023-2024
Based on 20 + 20 Ligue 1 2023-2024 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-4-1-1
vs Lens (H) 0-1 · 3 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-1-4-1
vs Lorient (H) 1-2 · 4 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Head to Head
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
L
D
L
L
L
L
D
L
L
L
L
W
D
L
L
0.95
5-4-11
PPG Overall
1.09
3-3-5
PPG at Home
0.78
2-1-6
PPG Away
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
W
W
D
0.80
4-4-12
PPG Overall
0.60
1-3-6
PPG at Home
1.00
3-1-6
PPG Away
Venue form: Nantes at home +9% on points per game vs Metz away (1.09 vs 1.00)
Rest & Schedule
29
days rest
Nantes 0-1 Lens
0 games in 14 days · 1 in 30 days
28
days rest
Metz 1-2 Lorient
0 games in 14 days · 1 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
20
11
9
Win %
25%
27%
22%
Goals per game
2.55
2.64
2.44
Scored
1.00
1.27
0.67
Conceded
1.55
1.36
1.78
Both teams scored
45%
45%
44%
Clean sheets
25%
27%
22%
Failed to score
40%
36%
44%
Overall
Home
Away
Played
20
10
10
Win %
20%
10%
30%
Goals per game
2.40
2.00
2.80
Scored
0.85
0.80
0.90
Conceded
1.55
1.20
1.90
Both teams scored
45%
40%
50%
Clean sheets
15%
10%
20%
Failed to score
45%
60%
30%
Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Nantes
NAN
Metz
MET
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
90% 18/20
95% 19/20
93%
–
Over 1.5
65% 13/20
55% 11/20
60%
72%
Over 2.5
45% 9/20
45% 9/20
45%
48%
Over 3.5
25% 5/20
30% 6/20
28%
26%
Over 4.5
10% 2/20
10% 2/20
10%
–
Under 2.5
55% 11/20
55% 11/20
55%
52%
Both teams score
BTTS
45% 9/20
45% 9/20
45%
49%
BTTS & win
10% 2/20
10% 2/20
10%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
40% 8/20
40% 8/20
40%
–
Nantes
NAN
Metz
MET
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
55% 11/20
65% 13/20
60%
–
Over 1.5
25% 5/20
40% 8/20
33%
–
Over 2.5
10% 2/20
10% 2/20
10%
–
BTTS
25% 5/20
30% 6/20
28%
–
% of each club's games · League = Ligue 1 2023-2024 (180 games, 2.51 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.27 at home
0.90 away
Nantes scored 14 in 11 home games
Metz scored 9 in 10 away games
Nantes
NAN
Metz
MET
Scored over 0.5
60% 12/20
55% 11/20
Scored over 1.5
20% 4/20
20% 4/20
Scored over 2.5
10% 2/20
10% 2/20
Failed to score
40% 8/20
45% 9/20
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.36 at home
1.90 away
Nantes conceded 15 in 11 home games
Metz conceded 19 in 10 away games
Nantes
NAN
Metz
MET
Conceded over 0.5
75% 15/20
85% 17/20
Conceded over 1.5
50% 10/20
45% 9/20
Conceded over 2.5
25% 5/20
15% 3/20
Clean sheets
25% 5/20
15% 3/20
Streaks
Match Totals
Nantes
NAN
Metz
MET
League
Corners
Corners won
5.05
3.95
–
Corners conceded
5.05
5.05
–
Match total
10.10
9.00
9.45
Over 8.5
60% 12/20
55% 11/20
–
Over 9.5
50% 10/20
50% 10/20
–
Over 10.5
45% 9/20
35% 7/20
–
Cards
Cards
2.00
1.60
–
Opponent cards
1.85
1.30
–
Match total
3.85
2.90
3.98
Over 3.5
60% 12/20
40% 8/20
–
Over 4.5
15% 3/20
15% 3/20
–
Shots
Shots
12.15
9.30
–
Opponent shots
13.25
14.35
–
Match total
25.40
23.65
25.14
Shots on target
On target
4.39
3.25
–
Opponent on target
5.67
5.45
–
Match total
10.06
8.70
–
Fouls
Fouls
12.60
12.25
–
Opponent fouls
11.40
11.75
–
Match total
24.00
24.00
–
Possession
All games
48%
35%
–
Home games
46%
40%
–
Away games
49%
30%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Ligue 1 2023-2024 (180 games) · Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Nantes
Scored · 20
20%
5%
20%
40%
5%
10%
Conceded · 31
13%
13%
3%
20%
19%
32%
Metz
Scored · 17
23%
18%
6%
0%
35%
18%
Conceded · 31
19%
13%
16%
19%
7%
26%
33%
Scored first
37%
10%
Goals after 75'
18%
Scored first: Nantes 6 of 18, Metz 7 of 19 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
20%60%20%
Leading 4
Level 12
Trailing 4
1.20
points per game
At half-time
50%
2 of 4
Led at HT, won
0%
0 of 4
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 92nd 11
At half-time
10%55%35%
Leading 2
Level 11
Trailing 7
0.85
points per game
At half-time
100%
2 of 2
Led at HT, won
29%
2 of 7
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 82nd 9
4
Points won from losing positions in 13 · 15 games
5
5
Points dropped from winning positions in 7 · 8 games
9
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Standings
#
Club
M
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pt
···
13
4
8
8
19
27
-8
20
14
5
4
11
20
33
-13
19
15
5
4
11
20
31
-11
19
16
3
7
10
26
42
-16
16
17
4
4
12
17
31
-14
16
18
3
6
11
14
32
-18
15
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