Stats Prediction
Result probability
19%
74%
Montpellier 7%
Draw 19%
Paris Saint Germain 74%
0.4 – 2.0
goals per side
Expected Goals
0-1
18% chance
Most Likely Score
43%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
31%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
MON · at home
Paris Saint Germain · away
0.90
Goals scored per game
2.10
1.00
Goals conceded per game
0.70
0.63x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.96x
0.93x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.49x
Average: 1.43 home goals and 1.07 away goals per game in Ligue 1 2023-2024
Based on 20 + 20 Ligue 1 2023-2024 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
5-4-1
vs Rennes (A) 2-1 · 3 Feb 2024
Substitutes
41
Last game lineup
4-3-3
vs Strasbourg (A) 1-2 · 2 Feb 2024
Substitutes
42
Head to Head
Last 3 meetings
100%
Montpellier wins 0
Draws 0
Paris Saint Germain wins 3
Goals 3 (1.00 per game)
Goals 11 (3.67 per game)
100%
3
of 3
Over 1.5 Goals
100%
3
of 3
Over 2.5 Goals
67%
2
of 3
Over 3.5 Goals
67%
2
of 3
Both Teams Scored
0%
0
of 3
Montpellier Clean Sheets
33%
1
of 3
Paris Saint Germain Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 3 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
L
D
L
D
W
L
D
L
D
W
D
L
D
L
D
1.00
4-8-8
PPG Overall
1.00
1-7-2
PPG at Home
1.00
3-1-6
PPG Away
W
D
W
W
D
W
D
W
W
D
W
W
W
W
W
2.35
14-5-1
PPG Overall
2.30
7-2-1
PPG at Home
2.40
7-3-0
PPG Away
Venue form: Paris Saint Germain away +140% on points per game vs Montpellier at home (2.40 vs 1.00)
Rest & Schedule
43
days rest
Rennes 2-1 Montpellier
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
44
days rest
Strasbourg 1-2 Paris Saint Germain
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
20
10
10
Win %
20%
10%
30%
Goals per game
2.25
1.90
2.60
Scored
1.00
0.90
1.10
Conceded
1.25
1.00
1.50
Both teams scored
40%
50%
30%
Clean sheets
35%
50%
20%
Failed to score
45%
40%
50%
Overall
Home
Away
Played
20
10
10
Win %
70%
70%
70%
Goals per game
3.25
3.70
2.80
Scored
2.40
2.70
2.10
Conceded
0.85
1.00
0.70
Both teams scored
60%
60%
60%
Clean sheets
40%
40%
40%
Failed to score
10%
10%
10%
Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Montpellier
MON
Paris Saint Germain
PAR
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
80% 16/20
90% 18/20
85%
–
Over 1.5
70% 14/20
90% 18/20
80%
72%
Over 2.5
45% 9/20
70% 14/20
58%
48%
Over 3.5
25% 5/20
45% 9/20
35%
26%
Over 4.5
5% 1/20
20% 4/20
13%
–
Under 2.5
55% 11/20
30% 6/20
43%
52%
Both teams score
BTTS
40% 8/20
60% 12/20
50%
49%
BTTS & win
5% 1/20
40% 8/20
23%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
30% 6/20
50% 10/20
40%
–
Montpellier
MON
Paris Saint Germain
PAR
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
75% 15/20
75% 15/20
75%
–
Over 1.5
15% 3/20
40% 8/20
28%
–
Over 2.5
5% 1/20
15% 3/20
10%
–
BTTS
5% 1/20
15% 3/20
10%
–
% of each club's games · League = Ligue 1 2023-2024 (180 games, 2.51 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
0.90 at home
2.10 away
Montpellier scored 9 in 10 home games
Paris Saint Germain scored 21 in 10 away games
Montpellier
MON
Paris Saint Germain
PAR
Scored over 0.5
55% 11/20
90% 18/20
Scored over 1.5
25% 5/20
80% 16/20
Scored over 2.5
15% 3/20
50% 10/20
Failed to score
45% 9/20
10% 2/20
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.00 at home
0.70 away
Montpellier conceded 10 in 10 home games
Paris Saint Germain conceded 7 in 10 away games
Montpellier
MON
Paris Saint Germain
PAR
Conceded over 0.5
65% 13/20
60% 12/20
Conceded over 1.5
45% 9/20
20% 4/20
Conceded over 2.5
15% 3/20
5% 1/20
Clean sheets
35% 7/20
40% 8/20
Streaks
4
Without a win last win 5 games ago
15
Unbeaten last loss 16 games ago
13
Scored in a row
2
Conceded in a row
2
Both teams scored in a row
8
Longest win run this season
Match Totals
Montpellier
MON
Paris Saint Germain
PAR
League
Corners
Corners won
3.84
5.21
–
Corners conceded
5.21
5.16
–
Match total
9.05
10.37
9.45
Over 8.5
42% 8/19
68% 13/19
–
Over 9.5
42% 8/19
68% 13/19
–
Over 10.5
21% 4/19
53% 10/19
–
Cards
Cards
2.15
1.40
–
Opponent cards
2.60
1.85
–
Match total
4.75
3.25
3.98
Over 3.5
55% 11/20
45% 9/20
–
Over 4.5
40% 8/20
25% 5/20
–
Shots
Shots
13.60
14.90
–
Opponent shots
15.20
12.65
–
Match total
28.80
27.55
25.14
Shots on target
On target
5.11
6.28
–
Opponent on target
5.21
4.67
–
Match total
10.32
10.94
–
Fouls
Fouls
12.65
10.20
–
Opponent fouls
14.60
11.80
–
Match total
27.25
22.00
–
Possession
All games
44%
65%
–
Home games
45%
69%
–
Away games
42%
62%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Ligue 1 2023-2024 (180 games) · Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Montpellier
Scored · 20
15%
10%
20%
15%
25%
15%
Conceded · 25
28%
4%
8%
20%
24%
16%
Paris Saint Germain
Scored · 48
10%
15%
25%
17%
10%
23%
Conceded · 17
0%
12%
6%
29%
29%
24%
38%
Scored first
94%
15%
Goals after 75'
23%
Scored first: Montpellier 6 of 16, Paris Saint Germain 17 of 18 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
30%25%45%
Leading 6
Level 5
Trailing 9
1.15
points per game
At half-time
67%
4 of 6
Led at HT, won
22%
2 of 9
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 92nd 11
At half-time
70%30%
Leading 14
Level 6
Trailing 0
2.40
points per game
At half-time
93%
13 of 14
Led at HT, won
–
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 242nd 24
2
Points won from losing positions in 10 · 1 games
0
6
Points dropped from winning positions in 7 · 17 games
6
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Standings
#
Club
M
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pt
1
14
5
1
48
17
31
47
2
11
6
3
20
11
9
39
3
10
6
4
29
17
12
36
···
10
6
7
7
21
26
-5
25
11
5
9
6
23
24
-1
24
12
4
8
8
20
25
-5
20
13
4
8
8
19
27
-8
20
14
5
4
11
20
33
-13
19
···
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