Stats Prediction
Result probability
38%
27%
35%
Cagliari 38%
Draw 27%
Lecce 35%
1.3 – 1.2
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-1
13% chance
Most Likely Score
45%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
Cagliari · at home
Lecce · away
1.27
Goals scored per game
0.82
1.64
Goals conceded per game
1.45
0.87x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
0.75x
1.50x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
1.00x
Average: 1.46 home goals and 1.09 away goals per game in Serie A 2023-2024
Based on 23 + 23 Serie A 2023-2024 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
3-5-2
vs AS Roma (A) 4-0 · 5 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Fiorentina (H) 3-2 · 2 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 3 meetings
100%
Cagliari wins 0
Draws 3
Lecce wins 0
Goals 3 (1.00 per game)
Goals 3 (1.00 per game)
67%
2
of 3
Over 1.5 Goals
33%
1
of 3
Over 2.5 Goals
33%
1
of 3
Over 3.5 Goals
67%
2
of 3
Both Teams Scored
33%
1
of 3
Cagliari Clean Sheets
33%
1
of 3
Lecce Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 3 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
L
L
L
W
D
L
L
L
W
D
D
L
L
W
L
0.78
4-6-13
PPG Overall
1.36
4-3-4
PPG at Home
0.25
0-3-9
PPG Away
W
L
L
L
D
W
L
L
L
D
L
L
W
D
D
1.04
5-9-9
PPG Overall
1.58
5-4-3
PPG at Home
0.45
0-5-6
PPG Away
Venue form: Cagliari at home +202% on points per game vs Lecce away (1.36 vs 0.45)
Rest & Schedule
90
days rest
AS Roma 4-0 Cagliari
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
93
days rest
Lecce 3-2 Fiorentina
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
23
11
12
Win %
17%
36%
0%
Goals per game
2.74
2.91
2.58
Scored
0.91
1.27
0.58
Conceded
1.83
1.64
2.00
Both teams scored
61%
73%
50%
Clean sheets
13%
18%
8%
Failed to score
39%
27%
50%
Overall
Home
Away
Played
23
12
11
Win %
22%
42%
0%
Goals per game
2.48
2.67
2.27
Scored
1.04
1.25
0.82
Conceded
1.43
1.42
1.45
Both teams scored
61%
58%
64%
Clean sheets
9%
17%
0%
Failed to score
30%
25%
36%
Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Cagliari
CAG
Lecce
LEC
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
87% 20/23
100% 23/23
93%
–
Over 1.5
83% 19/23
78% 18/23
80%
74%
Over 2.5
61% 14/23
43% 10/23
52%
50%
Over 3.5
26% 6/23
22% 5/23
24%
24%
Over 4.5
9% 2/23
4% 1/23
7%
–
Under 2.5
39% 9/23
57% 13/23
48%
50%
Both teams score
BTTS
61% 14/23
61% 14/23
61%
51%
BTTS & win
17% 4/23
13% 3/23
15%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
52% 12/23
35% 8/23
43%
–
Cagliari
CAG
Lecce
LEC
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
65% 15/23
61% 14/23
63%
–
Over 1.5
35% 8/23
22% 5/23
28%
–
Over 2.5
4% 1/23
0% 0/23
2%
–
BTTS
9% 2/23
13% 3/23
11%
–
% of each club's games · League = Serie A 2023-2024 (226 games, 2.55 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.27 at home
0.82 away
Cagliari scored 14 in 11 home games
Lecce scored 9 in 11 away games
Cagliari
CAG
Lecce
LEC
Scored over 0.5
61% 14/23
70% 16/23
Scored over 1.5
22% 5/23
30% 7/23
Scored over 2.5
4% 1/23
4% 1/23
Failed to score
39% 9/23
30% 7/23
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.64 at home
1.45 away
Cagliari conceded 18 in 11 home games
Lecce conceded 16 in 11 away games
Cagliari
CAG
Lecce
LEC
Conceded over 0.5
87% 20/23
91% 21/23
Conceded over 1.5
61% 14/23
39% 9/23
Conceded over 2.5
26% 6/23
9% 2/23
Clean sheets
13% 3/23
9% 2/23
Streaks
Match Totals
Cagliari
CAG
Lecce
LEC
League
Corners
Corners won
4.83
4.09
–
Corners conceded
6.22
4.77
–
Match total
11.04
8.86
9.77
Over 8.5
65% 15/23
55% 12/22
–
Over 9.5
65% 15/23
41% 9/22
–
Over 10.5
61% 14/23
32% 7/22
–
Cards
Cards
2.13
2.78
–
Opponent cards
2.30
2.65
–
Match total
4.43
5.43
4.69
Over 3.5
57% 13/23
83% 19/23
–
Over 4.5
43% 10/23
65% 15/23
–
Shots
Shots
12.57
13.26
–
Opponent shots
13.22
13.78
–
Match total
25.78
27.04
25.17
Shots on target
On target
3.64
4.23
–
Opponent on target
4.05
4.77
–
Match total
7.68
9.00
–
Fouls
Fouls
12.57
13.57
–
Opponent fouls
10.96
14.09
–
Match total
23.52
27.65
–
Possession
All games
44%
45%
–
Home games
45%
46%
–
Away games
43%
44%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Serie A 2023-2024 (226 games) · Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Cagliari
Scored · 21
5%
14%
5%
5%
28%
43%
Conceded · 42
10%
21%
14%
24%
14%
17%
Lecce
Scored · 24
13%
8%
8%
8%
21%
42%
Conceded · 33
3%
18%
15%
21%
18%
25%
30%
Scored first
43%
43%
Goals after 75'
42%
Scored first: Cagliari 6 of 20, Lecce 10 of 23 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
13%39%48%
Leading 3
Level 9
Trailing 11
0.78
points per game
At half-time
0%
0 of 3
Led at HT, won
27%
3 of 11
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 52nd 16
At half-time
17%52%30%
Leading 4
Level 12
Trailing 7
1.04
points per game
At half-time
50%
2 of 4
Led at HT, won
57%
4 of 7
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 72nd 17
10
Points won from losing positions in 17 · 16 games
11
13
Points dropped from winning positions in 9 · 11 games
14
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Standings
#
Club
M
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pt
···
11
▼
7
8
8
21
28
-7
29
12
▲
7
8
8
24
26
-2
29
13
5
9
9
24
33
-9
24
14
▼
6
5
12
31
44
-13
23
15
5
4
13
28
41
-13
19
16
▲
2
13
8
23
37
-14
19
17
▲
4
6
13
21
32
-11
18
18
▼
4
6
13
21
42
-21
18
19
▼
4
6
13
15
36
-21
18
20
2
7
14
19
44
-25
13
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