Stats Prediction
Result probability
30%
27%
43%
Fiorentina 30%
Draw 27%
Napoli 43%
1.1 – 1.3
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-1
13% chance
Most Likely Score
43%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
48%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
Fiorentina · at home
Napoli · away
1.55
Goals scored per game
1.45
1.00
Goals conceded per game
1.00
1.06x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.33x
0.91x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.68x
Average: 1.46 home goals and 1.09 away goals per game in Serie A 2023-2024
Based on 22 + 22 Serie A 2023-2024 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Lecce (A) 3-2 · 2 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-3-3
vs Verona (H) 2-1 · 4 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings
30%
20%
50%
Fiorentina wins 3
Draws 2
Napoli wins 5
Goals 12 (1.20 per game)
Goals 18 (1.80 per game)
70%
7
of 10
Over 1.5 Goals
50%
5
of 10
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
4
of 10
Over 3.5 Goals
40%
4
of 10
Both Teams Scored
30%
3
of 10
Fiorentina Clean Sheets
50%
5
of 10
Napoli Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 10 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
L
L
D
L
W
L
L
D
L
W
W
W
D
W
L
1.55
10-4-8
PPG Overall
1.82
6-2-3
PPG at Home
1.27
4-2-5
PPG Away
W
D
W
L
D
W
D
W
L
D
L
W
L
L
W
1.59
10-5-7
PPG Overall
1.55
5-2-4
PPG at Home
1.64
5-3-3
PPG Away
Venue form: Fiorentina at home +11% on points per game vs Napoli away (1.82 vs 1.64)
Rest & Schedule
107
days rest
Lecce 3-2 Fiorentina
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
105
days rest
Napoli 2-1 Verona
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
22
11
11
Win %
45%
55%
36%
Goals per game
2.55
2.55
2.55
Scored
1.41
1.55
1.27
Conceded
1.14
1.00
1.27
Both teams scored
41%
36%
45%
Clean sheets
27%
36%
18%
Failed to score
32%
27%
36%
Overall
Home
Away
Played
22
11
11
Win %
45%
45%
45%
Goals per game
2.64
2.82
2.45
Scored
1.45
1.45
1.45
Conceded
1.18
1.36
1.00
Both teams scored
50%
64%
36%
Clean sheets
27%
18%
36%
Failed to score
36%
27%
45%
Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Fiorentina
FIO
Napoli
NAP
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
100% 22/22
86% 19/22
93%
–
Over 1.5
64% 14/22
77% 17/22
70%
74%
Over 2.5
45% 10/22
64% 14/22
55%
50%
Over 3.5
32% 7/22
32% 7/22
32%
24%
Over 4.5
14% 3/22
5% 1/22
9%
–
Under 2.5
55% 12/22
36% 8/22
45%
50%
Both teams score
BTTS
41% 9/22
50% 11/22
45%
51%
BTTS & win
18% 4/22
32% 7/22
25%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
32% 7/22
50% 11/22
41%
–
Fiorentina
FIO
Napoli
NAP
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
86% 19/22
64% 14/22
75%
–
Over 1.5
32% 7/22
32% 7/22
32%
–
Over 2.5
9% 2/22
5% 1/22
7%
–
BTTS
14% 3/22
18% 4/22
16%
–
% of each club's games · League = Serie A 2023-2024 (226 games, 2.55 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.55 at home
1.45 away
Fiorentina scored 17 in 11 home games
Napoli scored 16 in 11 away games
Fiorentina
FIO
Napoli
NAP
Scored over 0.5
68% 15/22
64% 14/22
Scored over 1.5
45% 10/22
55% 12/22
Scored over 2.5
23% 5/22
18% 4/22
Failed to score
32% 7/22
36% 8/22
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.00 at home
1.00 away
Fiorentina conceded 11 in 11 home games
Napoli conceded 11 in 11 away games
Fiorentina
FIO
Napoli
NAP
Conceded over 0.5
73% 16/22
73% 16/22
Conceded over 1.5
27% 6/22
32% 7/22
Conceded over 2.5
9% 2/22
14% 3/22
Clean sheets
27% 6/22
27% 6/22
Streaks
4
Without a win last win 5 games ago
4
Conceded in a row
3
Longest win run this season
3
Unbeaten last loss 4 games ago
2
Longest win run this season
Match Totals
Fiorentina
FIO
Napoli
NAP
League
Corners
Corners won
5.25
6.62
–
Corners conceded
3.45
3.62
–
Match total
8.70
10.24
9.77
Over 8.5
40% 8/20
81% 17/21
–
Over 9.5
35% 7/20
67% 14/21
–
Over 10.5
30% 6/20
38% 8/21
–
Cards
Cards
2.18
2.55
–
Opponent cards
2.18
2.64
–
Match total
4.36
5.18
4.69
Over 3.5
68% 15/22
73% 16/22
–
Over 4.5
45% 10/22
64% 14/22
–
Shots
Shots
13.05
16.68
–
Opponent shots
10.32
10.23
–
Match total
23.36
26.91
25.17
Shots on target
On target
4.41
5.52
–
Opponent on target
4.14
3.38
–
Match total
8.55
8.90
–
Fouls
Fouls
12.73
10.23
–
Opponent fouls
12.59
12.68
–
Match total
25.32
22.91
–
Possession
All games
58%
60%
–
Home games
60%
62%
–
Away games
56%
58%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Serie A 2023-2024 (226 games) · Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Fiorentina
Scored · 31
23%
16%
13%
16%
10%
22%
Conceded · 25
20%
16%
12%
20%
12%
20%
Napoli
Scored · 32
3%
16%
22%
9%
16%
34%
Conceded · 26
8%
12%
15%
23%
19%
23%
50%
Scored first
37%
23%
Goals after 75'
34%
Scored first: Fiorentina 11 of 22, Napoli 7 of 19 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
36%23%41%
Leading 8
Level 5
Trailing 9
1.32
points per game
At half-time
75%
6 of 8
Led at HT, won
22%
2 of 9
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 162nd 15
At half-time
32%50%18%
Leading 7
Level 11
Trailing 4
1.45
points per game
At half-time
100%
7 of 7
Led at HT, won
50%
2 of 4
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 132nd 19
5
Points won from losing positions in 11 · 12 games
11
7
Points dropped from winning positions in 13 · 10 games
0
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Standings
#
Club
M
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pt
···
5
▼
11
5
7
40
26
14
38
6
▼
9
9
4
29
22
7
36
7
10
5
7
32
26
6
35
8
▲
10
4
8
25
23
2
34
9
▼
10
4
8
31
25
6
34
10
▲
8
8
6
20
19
1
32
11
▼
7
8
8
21
28
-7
29
···
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