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13 May 2026-7:00 pm
Stats Prediction
Result probability
42%
27%
31%
Lens 42%
Draw 27%
Paris Saint Germain 31%
1.4 – 1.1
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-1
13% chance
Most Likely Score
45%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
LEN · at home
Paris Saint Germain · away
2.19
Goals scored per game
2.00
0.69
Goals conceded per game
1.00
1.35x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.64x
0.56x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.62x
Average: 1.62 home goals and 1.22 away goals per game in Ligue 1 2025-2026
Based on 32 + 31 Ligue 1 2025-2026 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
3-4-2-1
vs Nantes (H) 1-0 · 8 May 2026
Substitutes
27
41
Last game lineup
4-3-3
vs Lorient (H) 2-2 · 2 May 2026
Substitutes
80
53
55
Head to Head
Last 5 meetings
20%
80%
Lens wins 1
Draws 0
Paris Saint Germain wins 4
Goals 5 (1.00 per game)
Goals 11 (2.20 per game)
100%
5
of 5
Over 1.5 Goals
60%
3
of 5
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
3
of 5
Over 3.5 Goals
60%
3
of 5
Both Teams Scored
0%
0
of 5
Lens Clean Sheets
40%
2
of 5
Paris Saint Germain Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 5 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Opponent
Lens
LEN
Paris Saint Germain
PAR
Points on these 5
23 of 30 · 2.30 per game
23 of 27 · 2.56 per game
Form & Points per Game
W
D
D
W
L
W
D
D
W
L
W
L
W
D
L
2.09
21-4-7
PPG Overall
2.63
14-0-2
PPG at Home
1.56
7-4-5
PPG Away
D
W
W
L
W
D
W
W
L
W
W
L
W
W
L
2.26
22-4-5
PPG Overall
2.38
12-2-2
PPG at Home
2.13
10-2-3
PPG Away
Venue form: Lens at home +23% on points per game vs Paris Saint Germain away (2.63 vs 2.13)
Rest & Schedule
5
days rest
Lens 1-0 Nantes
2 games in 14 days · 4 in 30 days
11
days rest
Paris Saint Germain 2-2 Lorient
1 game in 14 days · 4 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
32
16
16
Win %
66%
88%
44%
Goals per game
2.97
2.88
3.06
Scored
1.94
2.19
1.69
Conceded
1.03
0.69
1.38
Both teams scored
53%
44%
63%
Clean sheets
34%
50%
19%
Failed to score
16%
6%
25%
xG
1.89
2.13
1.64
xGA
1.21
1.02
1.40
Overall
Home
Away
Played
31
16
15
Win %
71%
75%
67%
Goals per game
3.13
3.25
3.00
Scored
2.26
2.50
2.00
Conceded
0.87
0.75
1.00
Both teams scored
42%
38%
47%
Clean sheets
52%
63%
40%
Failed to score
6%
0%
13%
xG
2.05
2.08
2.03
xGA
0.82
0.76
0.89
Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Lens
LEN
Paris Saint Germain
PAR
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
97% 31/32
100% 31/31
98%
–
Over 1.5
81% 26/32
77% 24/31
79%
72%
Over 2.5
66% 21/32
65% 20/31
65%
53%
Over 3.5
28% 9/32
35% 11/31
32%
33%
Over 4.5
19% 6/32
19% 6/31
19%
–
Under 2.5
34% 11/32
35% 11/31
35%
47%
Both teams score
BTTS
53% 17/32
42% 13/31
48%
51%
BTTS & win
34% 11/32
19% 6/31
27%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
47% 15/32
35% 11/31
41%
–
Lens
LEN
Paris Saint Germain
PAR
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
78% 25/32
77% 24/31
78%
–
Over 1.5
38% 12/32
45% 14/31
41%
–
Over 2.5
13% 4/32
16% 5/31
14%
–
BTTS
19% 6/32
23% 7/31
21%
–
% of each club's games · League = Ligue 1 2025-2026 (287 games, 2.84 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
2.19 at home
2.00 away
Lens scored 35 in 16 home games
Paris Saint Germain scored 30 in 15 away games
Lens
LEN
Paris Saint Germain
PAR
Scored over 0.5
84% 27/32
94% 29/31
Scored over 1.5
59% 19/32
61% 19/31
Scored over 2.5
34% 11/32
45% 14/31
Failed to score
16% 5/32
6% 2/31
Goals conceded per game at this venue
0.69 at home
1.00 away
Lens conceded 11 in 16 home games
Paris Saint Germain conceded 15 in 15 away games
Lens
LEN
Paris Saint Germain
PAR
Conceded over 0.5
66% 21/32
48% 15/31
Conceded over 1.5
25% 8/32
26% 8/31
Conceded over 2.5
13% 4/32
13% 4/31
Clean sheets
34% 11/32
52% 16/31
Streaks
4
Unbeaten last loss 5 games ago
4
Scored in a row
8
Longest win run this season
3
Unbeaten last loss 4 games ago
17
Scored in a row
7
Over 2.5 goals in a row
7
Longest win run this season
Match Totals
Lens
LEN
Paris Saint Germain
PAR
League
Corners
Corners won
6.33
5.90
–
Corners conceded
3.63
3.31
–
Match total
9.97
9.21
9.49
Over 8.5
63% 19/30
52% 15/29
–
Over 9.5
57% 17/30
38% 11/29
–
Over 10.5
40% 12/30
24% 7/29
–
Cards
Cards
2.00
1.13
–
Opponent cards
2.25
1.58
–
Match total
4.25
2.71
3.97
Over 3.5
66% 21/32
23% 7/31
–
Over 4.5
44% 14/32
10% 3/31
–
Shots
Shots
16.06
17.68
–
Opponent shots
10.63
8.16
–
Match total
26.69
25.84
24.23
Shots on target
On target
5.30
6.93
–
Opponent on target
3.63
3.26
–
Match total
8.93
10.19
–
Fouls
Fouls
12.81
9.68
–
Opponent fouls
12.19
9.16
–
Match total
25.00
18.84
–
Possession
All games
52%
69%
–
Home games
53%
70%
–
Away games
50%
69%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Ligue 1 2025-2026 (287 games) · Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Lens
Scored · 62
10%
10%
18%
24%
14%
24%
Conceded · 33
22%
18%
18%
9%
21%
12%
Paris Saint Germain
Scored · 70
16%
9%
21%
14%
17%
23%
Conceded · 27
11%
22%
15%
19%
11%
22%
61%
Scored first
84%
24%
Goals after 75'
23%
Scored first: Lens 19 of 31, Paris Saint Germain 26 of 31 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
38%34%28%
Leading 12
Level 11
Trailing 9
1.47
points per game
At half-time
92%
11 of 12
Led at HT, won
44%
4 of 9
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 232nd 39
At half-time
55%29%16%
Leading 17
Level 9
Trailing 5
1.94
points per game
At half-time
100%
17 of 17
Led at HT, won
20%
1 of 5
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 322nd 38
14
Points won from losing positions in 13 · 6 games
1
5
Points dropped from winning positions in 23 · 26 games
8
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
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