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10 May 2026-7:00 pm
Stats Prediction
Result probability
85%
10%
Paris Saint Germain 85%
Draw 10%
Stade Brestois 29 5%
3.0 – 0.6
goals per side
Expected Goals
2-0
13% chance
Most Likely Score
69%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
Paris Saint Germain · at home
BRE · away
2.50
Goals scored per game
0.94
0.75
Goals conceded per game
1.94
1.55x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
0.77x
0.62x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
1.20x
Average: 1.62 home goals and 1.22 away goals per game in Ligue 1 2025-2026
Based on 31 + 31 Ligue 1 2025-2026 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-3-3
vs Lorient (H) 2-2 · 2 May 2026
Substitutes
80
53
55
Last game lineup
4-1-4-1
vs Paris FC (A) 4-0 · 3 May 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 5 meetings
80%
20%
Paris Saint Germain wins 4
Draws 1
Stade Brestois 29 wins 0
Goals 11 (2.20 per game)
Goals 5 (1.00 per game)
80%
4
of 5
Over 1.5 Goals
80%
4
of 5
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
2
of 5
Over 3.5 Goals
60%
3
of 5
Both Teams Scored
40%
2
of 5
Paris Saint Germain Clean Sheets
0%
0
of 5
Stade Brestois 29 Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 5 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
D
W
W
L
W
D
W
W
L
W
W
L
W
W
L
2.26
22-4-5
PPG Overall
2.38
12-2-2
PPG at Home
2.13
10-2-3
PPG Away
L
D
D
L
L
L
D
D
L
L
L
W
W
W
D
1.23
10-8-13
PPG Overall
1.67
7-4-4
PPG at Home
0.81
3-4-9
PPG Away
Venue form: Paris Saint Germain at home +194% on points per game vs Stade Brestois 29 away (2.38 vs 0.81)
Rest & Schedule
8
days rest
Paris Saint Germain 2-2 Lorient
1 game in 14 days · 4 in 30 days
7
days rest
Paris FC 4-0 Stade Brestois 29
1 game in 14 days · 3 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
31
16
15
Win %
71%
75%
67%
Goals per game
3.13
3.25
3.00
Scored
2.26
2.50
2.00
Conceded
0.87
0.75
1.00
Both teams scored
42%
38%
47%
Clean sheets
52%
63%
40%
Failed to score
6%
0%
13%
xG
2.05
2.08
2.03
xGA
0.82
0.76
0.89
Overall
Home
Away
Played
31
15
16
Win %
32%
47%
19%
Goals per game
2.97
3.07
2.88
Scored
1.32
1.73
0.94
Conceded
1.65
1.33
1.94
Both teams scored
45%
40%
50%
Clean sheets
29%
47%
13%
Failed to score
32%
27%
38%
xG
1.22
1.52
0.95
xGA
1.43
1.24
1.60
Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Paris Saint Germain
PAR
Stade Brestois 29
BRE
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
100% 31/31
94% 29/31
97%
–
Over 1.5
77% 24/31
84% 26/31
81%
72%
Over 2.5
65% 20/31
52% 16/31
58%
53%
Over 3.5
35% 11/31
32% 10/31
34%
33%
Over 4.5
19% 6/31
19% 6/31
19%
–
Under 2.5
35% 11/31
48% 15/31
42%
47%
Both teams score
BTTS
42% 13/31
45% 14/31
44%
51%
BTTS & win
19% 6/31
10% 3/31
15%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
35% 11/31
39% 12/31
37%
–
Paris Saint Germain
PAR
Stade Brestois 29
BRE
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
77% 24/31
77% 24/31
77%
–
Over 1.5
45% 14/31
52% 16/31
48%
–
Over 2.5
16% 5/31
19% 6/31
18%
–
BTTS
23% 7/31
19% 6/31
21%
–
% of each club's games · League = Ligue 1 2025-2026 (287 games, 2.84 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
2.50 at home
0.94 away
Paris Saint Germain scored 40 in 16 home games
Stade Brestois 29 scored 15 in 16 away games
Paris Saint Germain
PAR
Stade Brestois 29
BRE
Scored over 0.5
94% 29/31
68% 21/31
Scored over 1.5
61% 19/31
42% 13/31
Scored over 2.5
45% 14/31
19% 6/31
Failed to score
6% 2/31
32% 10/31
Goals conceded per game at this venue
0.75 at home
1.94 away
Paris Saint Germain conceded 12 in 16 home games
Stade Brestois 29 conceded 31 in 16 away games
Paris Saint Germain
PAR
Stade Brestois 29
BRE
Conceded over 0.5
48% 15/31
71% 22/31
Conceded over 1.5
26% 8/31
55% 17/31
Conceded over 2.5
13% 4/31
32% 10/31
Clean sheets
52% 16/31
29% 9/31
Streaks
3
Unbeaten last loss 4 games ago
17
Scored in a row
7
Over 2.5 goals in a row
7
Longest win run this season
6
Without a win last win 7 games ago
6
Conceded in a row
2
Over 2.5 goals in a row
3
Longest win run this season
Match Totals
Paris Saint Germain
PAR
Stade Brestois 29
BRE
League
Corners
Corners won
5.90
4.19
–
Corners conceded
3.31
5.48
–
Match total
9.21
9.67
9.49
Over 8.5
52% 15/29
56% 15/27
–
Over 9.5
38% 11/29
52% 14/27
–
Over 10.5
24% 7/29
44% 12/27
–
Cards
Cards
1.13
2.00
–
Opponent cards
1.58
1.87
–
Match total
2.71
3.87
3.97
Over 3.5
23% 7/31
55% 17/31
–
Over 4.5
10% 3/31
42% 13/31
–
Shots
Shots
17.68
10.74
–
Opponent shots
8.16
13.71
–
Match total
25.84
24.45
24.23
Shots on target
On target
6.93
3.34
–
Opponent on target
3.26
4.93
–
Match total
10.19
8.28
–
Fouls
Fouls
9.68
12.81
–
Opponent fouls
9.16
11.68
–
Match total
18.84
24.48
–
Possession
All games
69%
43%
–
Home games
70%
43%
–
Away games
69%
43%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Ligue 1 2025-2026 (287 games) · Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Paris Saint Germain
Scored · 70
16%
9%
21%
14%
17%
23%
Conceded · 27
11%
22%
15%
19%
11%
22%
Stade Brestois 29
Scored · 41
20%
15%
17%
17%
12%
19%
Conceded · 51
14%
21%
14%
10%
21%
20%
84%
Scored first
52%
23%
Goals after 75'
20%
Scored first: Paris Saint Germain 26 of 31, Stade Brestois 29 15 of 29 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
55%29%16%
Leading 17
Level 9
Trailing 5
1.94
points per game
At half-time
100%
17 of 17
Led at HT, won
20%
1 of 5
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 322nd 38
At half-time
32%26%42%
Leading 10
Level 8
Trailing 13
1.23
points per game
At half-time
60%
6 of 10
Led at HT, won
23%
3 of 13
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 212nd 20
1
Points won from losing positions in 6 · 17 games
6
8
Points dropped from winning positions in 26 · 17 games
17
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
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