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10 May 2026-7:00 pm
Stats Prediction
Result probability
49%
27%
24%
Rennes 49%
Draw 27%
Paris FC 24%
1.4 – 0.9
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-0
14% chance
Most Likely Score
42%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
46%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
REN · at home
PAR · away
1.75
Goals scored per game
1.13
1.00
Goals conceded per game
1.31
1.08x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
0.92x
0.82x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.81x
Average: 1.62 home goals and 1.22 away goals per game in Ligue 1 2025-2026
Based on 32 + 32 Ligue 1 2025-2026 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-4-2
vs Lyon (A) 4-2 · 3 May 2026
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Stade Brestois 29 (H) 4-0 · 3 May 2026
Substitutes
6
Head to Head
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Common Opponents
Opponent
Rennes
REN
Paris FC
PAR
Points on these 5
22 of 30 · 2.20 per game
12 of 30 · 1.20 per game
Form & Points per Game
L
W
W
W
W
L
W
W
W
W
D
L
W
W
W
1.75
16-8-8
PPG Overall
1.94
9-4-3
PPG at Home
1.56
7-4-5
PPG Away
W
L
W
W
D
W
L
W
W
D
W
D
D
W
D
1.28
10-11-11
PPG Overall
1.38
6-4-6
PPG at Home
1.19
4-7-5
PPG Away
Venue form: Rennes at home +63% on points per game vs Paris FC away (1.94 vs 1.19)
Rest & Schedule
7
days rest
Lyon 4-2 Rennes
1 game in 14 days · 4 in 30 days
7
days rest
Paris FC 4-0 Stade Brestois 29
1 game in 14 days · 3 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
32
16
16
Win %
50%
56%
44%
Goals per game
3.19
2.75
3.63
Scored
1.75
1.75
1.75
Conceded
1.44
1.00
1.88
Both teams scored
56%
69%
44%
Clean sheets
31%
25%
38%
Failed to score
19%
19%
19%
xG
1.52
1.71
1.32
xGA
1.49
1.32
1.67
Overall
Home
Away
Played
32
16
16
Win %
31%
38%
25%
Goals per game
2.84
3.25
2.44
Scored
1.38
1.63
1.13
Conceded
1.47
1.63
1.31
Both teams scored
59%
50%
69%
Clean sheets
25%
25%
25%
Failed to score
28%
31%
25%
xG
1.25
1.45
1.06
xGA
1.60
1.62
1.59
Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Rennes
REN
Paris FC
PAR
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
94% 30/32
88% 28/32
91%
–
Over 1.5
81% 26/32
72% 23/32
77%
72%
Over 2.5
69% 22/32
53% 17/32
61%
53%
Over 3.5
50% 16/32
34% 11/32
42%
33%
Over 4.5
16% 5/32
25% 8/32
20%
–
Under 2.5
31% 10/32
47% 15/32
39%
47%
Both teams score
BTTS
56% 18/32
59% 19/32
58%
51%
BTTS & win
25% 8/32
19% 6/32
22%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
50% 16/32
44% 14/32
47%
–
Rennes
REN
Paris FC
PAR
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
78% 25/32
75% 24/32
77%
–
Over 1.5
44% 14/32
44% 14/32
44%
–
Over 2.5
16% 5/32
9% 3/32
13%
–
BTTS
22% 7/32
25% 8/32
23%
–
% of each club's games · League = Ligue 1 2025-2026 (287 games, 2.84 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.75 at home
1.13 away
Rennes scored 28 in 16 home games
Paris FC scored 18 in 16 away games
Rennes
REN
Paris FC
PAR
Scored over 0.5
81% 26/32
72% 23/32
Scored over 1.5
53% 17/32
41% 13/32
Scored over 2.5
28% 9/32
19% 6/32
Failed to score
19% 6/32
28% 9/32
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.00 at home
1.31 away
Rennes conceded 16 in 16 home games
Paris FC conceded 21 in 16 away games
Rennes
REN
Paris FC
PAR
Conceded over 0.5
69% 22/32
75% 24/32
Conceded over 1.5
41% 13/32
38% 12/32
Conceded over 2.5
19% 6/32
19% 6/32
Clean sheets
31% 10/32
25% 8/32
Streaks
Match Totals
Rennes
REN
Paris FC
PAR
League
Corners
Corners won
5.69
4.44
–
Corners conceded
4.53
5.44
–
Match total
10.22
9.88
9.49
Over 8.5
69% 22/32
63% 20/32
–
Over 9.5
56% 18/32
56% 18/32
–
Over 10.5
44% 14/32
41% 13/32
–
Cards
Cards
1.84
2.13
–
Opponent cards
2.19
1.69
–
Match total
4.03
3.81
3.97
Over 3.5
59% 19/32
47% 15/32
–
Over 4.5
44% 14/32
31% 10/32
–
Shots
Shots
13.50
11.31
–
Opponent shots
12.81
12.16
–
Match total
26.31
23.47
24.23
Shots on target
On target
4.94
3.81
–
Opponent on target
4.03
3.91
–
Match total
8.97
7.72
–
Fouls
Fouls
12.16
10.50
–
Opponent fouls
11.88
10.56
–
Match total
24.03
21.06
–
Possession
All games
54%
51%
–
Home games
55%
53%
–
Away games
52%
49%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Ligue 1 2025-2026 (287 games) · Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Rennes
Scored · 56
12%
27%
9%
21%
11%
20%
Conceded · 46
13%
2%
22%
19%
22%
22%
Paris FC
Scored · 44
16%
21%
11%
9%
16%
27%
Conceded · 47
6%
19%
19%
19%
9%
28%
63%
Scored first
46%
20%
Goals after 75'
27%
Scored first: Rennes 19 of 30, Paris FC 13 of 28 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
44%31%25%
Leading 14
Level 10
Trailing 8
1.63
points per game
At half-time
79%
11 of 14
Led at HT, won
13%
1 of 8
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 272nd 29
At half-time
25%41%34%
Leading 8
Level 13
Trailing 11
1.16
points per game
At half-time
88%
7 of 8
Led at HT, won
27%
3 of 11
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 212nd 23
11
Points won from losing positions in 13 · 16 games
7
16
Points dropped from winning positions in 23 · 14 games
9
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Latest Games
