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10 May 2026-7:00 pm
Stats Prediction
Result probability
26%
25%
49%
Toulouse 26%
Draw 25%
Lyon 49%
1.1 – 1.6
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-1
12% chance
Most Likely Score
51%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
54%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
TOU · at home
Lyon · away
1.44
Goals scored per game
1.38
1.44
Goals conceded per game
1.25
0.89x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.13x
1.18x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.77x
Average: 1.62 home goals and 1.22 away goals per game in Ligue 1 2025-2026
Based on 32 + 32 Ligue 1 2025-2026 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
3-4-2-1
vs Strasbourg (A) 1-2 · 3 May 2026
45
11
Substitutes
20
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Rennes (H) 4-2 · 3 May 2026
44
Substitutes
10
99
Head to Head
Last 4 meetings
25%
25%
50%
Toulouse wins 1
Draws 1
Lyon wins 2
Goals 4 (1.00 per game)
Goals 7 (1.75 per game)
100%
4
of 4
Over 1.5 Goals
75%
3
of 4
Over 2.5 Goals
0%
0
of 4
Over 3.5 Goals
75%
3
of 4
Both Teams Scored
0%
0
of 4
Toulouse Clean Sheets
25%
1
of 4
Lyon Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 4 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Opponent
Toulouse
TOU
Lyon
LYO
Points on these 5
9 of 30 · 0.90 per game
16 of 30 · 1.60 per game
Form & Points per Game
W
D
L
L
L
W
D
L
L
L
W
W
L
L
D
1.28
11-8-13
PPG Overall
1.31
5-6-5
PPG at Home
1.25
6-2-8
PPG Away
W
W
W
W
D
W
W
W
W
D
L
D
D
L
L
1.88
18-6-8
PPG Overall
2.31
12-1-3
PPG at Home
1.44
6-5-5
PPG Away
Venue form: Lyon away +10% on points per game vs Toulouse at home (1.44 vs 1.31)
Rest & Schedule
7
days rest
Strasbourg 1-2 Toulouse
1 game in 14 days · 4 in 30 days
7
days rest
Lyon 4-2 Rennes
1 game in 14 days · 4 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
32
16
16
Win %
34%
31%
38%
Goals per game
2.81
2.88
2.75
Scored
1.41
1.44
1.38
Conceded
1.41
1.44
1.38
Both teams scored
47%
38%
56%
Clean sheets
28%
38%
19%
Failed to score
31%
38%
25%
xG
1.28
1.52
1.04
xGA
1.27
1.12
1.41
Overall
Home
Away
Played
32
16
16
Win %
56%
75%
38%
Goals per game
2.69
2.75
2.63
Scored
1.63
1.88
1.38
Conceded
1.06
0.88
1.25
Both teams scored
50%
50%
50%
Clean sheets
47%
50%
44%
Failed to score
16%
0%
31%
xG
1.44
1.70
1.19
xGA
1.26
1.08
1.45
Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Toulouse
TOU
Lyon
LYO
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
94% 30/32
88% 28/32
91%
–
Over 1.5
66% 21/32
63% 20/32
64%
72%
Over 2.5
53% 17/32
53% 17/32
53%
53%
Over 3.5
34% 11/32
31% 10/32
33%
33%
Over 4.5
13% 4/32
22% 7/32
17%
–
Under 2.5
47% 15/32
47% 15/32
47%
47%
Both teams score
BTTS
47% 15/32
50% 16/32
48%
51%
BTTS & win
13% 4/32
22% 7/32
17%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
41% 13/32
47% 15/32
44%
–
Toulouse
TOU
Lyon
LYO
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
72% 23/32
69% 22/32
70%
–
Over 1.5
34% 11/32
31% 10/32
33%
–
Over 2.5
9% 3/32
13% 4/32
11%
–
BTTS
16% 5/32
22% 7/32
19%
–
% of each club's games · League = Ligue 1 2025-2026 (287 games, 2.84 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.44 at home
1.38 away
Toulouse scored 23 in 16 home games
Lyon scored 22 in 16 away games
Toulouse
TOU
Lyon
LYO
Scored over 0.5
69% 22/32
84% 27/32
Scored over 1.5
44% 14/32
47% 15/32
Scored over 2.5
16% 5/32
22% 7/32
Failed to score
31% 10/32
16% 5/32
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.44 at home
1.25 away
Toulouse conceded 23 in 16 home games
Lyon conceded 20 in 16 away games
Toulouse
TOU
Lyon
LYO
Conceded over 0.5
72% 23/32
53% 17/32
Conceded over 1.5
38% 12/32
34% 11/32
Conceded over 2.5
19% 6/32
19% 6/32
Clean sheets
28% 9/32
47% 15/32
Streaks
Match Totals
Toulouse
TOU
Lyon
LYO
League
Corners
Corners won
4.34
5.10
–
Corners conceded
5.00
5.07
–
Match total
9.34
10.17
9.49
Over 8.5
56% 18/32
73% 22/30
–
Over 9.5
50% 16/32
47% 14/30
–
Over 10.5
44% 14/32
30% 9/30
–
Cards
Cards
2.38
1.97
–
Opponent cards
2.00
2.50
–
Match total
4.38
4.47
3.97
Over 3.5
72% 23/32
69% 22/32
–
Over 4.5
47% 15/32
44% 14/32
–
Shots
Shots
12.66
11.66
–
Opponent shots
11.91
11.56
–
Match total
24.56
23.22
24.23
Shots on target
On target
4.29
4.56
–
Opponent on target
4.13
3.78
–
Match total
8.42
8.34
–
Fouls
Fouls
14.03
13.06
–
Opponent fouls
11.06
13.19
–
Match total
25.09
26.25
–
Possession
All games
42%
54%
–
Home games
43%
56%
–
Away games
41%
53%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Ligue 1 2025-2026 (287 games) · Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Toulouse
Scored · 45
18%
9%
16%
11%
13%
33%
Conceded · 45
11%
20%
18%
18%
11%
22%
Lyon
Scored · 52
12%
17%
23%
19%
12%
17%
Conceded · 34
6%
6%
20%
12%
15%
41%
40%
Scored first
75%
33%
Goals after 75'
17%
Scored first: Toulouse 12 of 30, Lyon 21 of 28 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
25%34%41%
Leading 8
Level 11
Trailing 13
1.09
points per game
At half-time
75%
6 of 8
Led at HT, won
38%
5 of 13
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 192nd 26
At half-time
47%41%13%
Leading 15
Level 13
Trailing 4
1.81
points per game
At half-time
67%
10 of 15
Led at HT, won
0%
0 of 4
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 272nd 25
12
Points won from losing positions in 21 · 11 games
7
8
Points dropped from winning positions in 14 · 23 games
14
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Latest Games
