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10 May 2026-7:00 pm
Stats Prediction
Result probability
29%
30%
41%
Metz 29%
Draw 30%
Lorient 41%
0.9 – 1.2
goals per side
Expected Goals
0-1
14% chance
Most Likely Score
35%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
MET · at home
LOR · away
0.94
Goals scored per game
0.81
1.75
Goals conceded per game
1.63
0.58x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
0.67x
1.44x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
1.01x
Average: 1.62 home goals and 1.22 away goals per game in Ligue 1 2025-2026
Based on 32 + 32 Ligue 1 2025-2026 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Monaco (H) 1-2 · 2 May 2026
15
34
Substitutes
35
3
Last game lineup
3-4-2-1
vs Paris Saint Germain (A) 2-2 · 2 May 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 3 meetings
33%
33%
33%
Metz wins 1
Draws 1
Lorient wins 1
Goals 5 (1.67 per game)
Goals 5 (1.67 per game)
100%
3
of 3
Over 1.5 Goals
67%
2
of 3
Over 2.5 Goals
33%
1
of 3
Over 3.5 Goals
100%
3
of 3
Both Teams Scored
0%
0
of 3
Metz Clean Sheets
0%
0
of 3
Lorient Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Common Opponents
Opponent
Metz
MET
Lorient
LOR
Points on these 5
2 of 30 · 0.20 per game
11 of 27 · 1.22 per game
Form & Points per Game
L
D
L
L
D
L
D
L
L
D
D
L
L
L
L
0.50
3-7-22
PPG Overall
0.63
2-4-10
PPG at Home
0.38
1-3-12
PPG Away
D
L
W
L
D
D
L
W
L
D
L
W
D
D
D
1.31
10-12-10
PPG Overall
1.88
8-6-2
PPG at Home
0.75
2-6-8
PPG Away
Venue form: Lorient away +19% on points per game vs Metz at home (0.75 vs 0.63)
Rest & Schedule
8
days rest
Metz 1-2 Monaco
1 game in 14 days · 4 in 30 days
8
days rest
Paris Saint Germain 2-2 Lorient
1 game in 14 days · 4 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
32
16
16
Win %
9%
13%
6%
Goals per game
3.25
2.69
3.81
Scored
1.00
0.94
1.06
Conceded
2.25
1.75
2.75
Both teams scored
53%
50%
56%
Clean sheets
19%
25%
13%
Failed to score
41%
44%
38%
xG
1.01
1.19
0.84
xGA
1.74
1.29
2.20
Overall
Home
Away
Played
32
16
16
Win %
31%
50%
13%
Goals per game
2.91
3.38
2.44
Scored
1.38
1.94
0.81
Conceded
1.53
1.44
1.63
Both teams scored
56%
75%
38%
Clean sheets
19%
25%
13%
Failed to score
28%
0%
56%
xG
1.33
1.59
1.06
xGA
1.30
1.08
1.51
Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Metz
MET
Lorient
LOR
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
88% 28/32
97% 31/32
92%
–
Over 1.5
75% 24/32
88% 28/32
81%
72%
Over 2.5
63% 20/32
44% 14/32
53%
53%
Over 3.5
41% 13/32
34% 11/32
38%
33%
Over 4.5
25% 8/32
13% 4/32
19%
–
Under 2.5
38% 12/32
56% 18/32
47%
47%
Both teams score
BTTS
53% 17/32
56% 18/32
55%
51%
BTTS & win
3% 1/32
16% 5/32
9%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
47% 15/32
34% 11/32
41%
–
Metz
MET
Lorient
LOR
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
69% 22/32
69% 22/32
69%
–
Over 1.5
44% 14/32
22% 7/32
33%
–
Over 2.5
19% 6/32
16% 5/32
17%
–
BTTS
31% 10/32
16% 5/32
23%
–
% of each club's games · League = Ligue 1 2025-2026 (287 games, 2.84 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
0.94 at home
0.81 away
Metz scored 15 in 16 home games
Lorient scored 13 in 16 away games
Metz
MET
Lorient
LOR
Scored over 0.5
59% 19/32
72% 23/32
Scored over 1.5
31% 10/32
44% 14/32
Scored over 2.5
6% 2/32
19% 6/32
Failed to score
41% 13/32
28% 9/32
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.75 at home
1.63 away
Metz conceded 28 in 16 home games
Lorient conceded 26 in 16 away games
Metz
MET
Lorient
LOR
Conceded over 0.5
81% 26/32
81% 26/32
Conceded over 1.5
59% 19/32
38% 12/32
Conceded over 2.5
53% 17/32
19% 6/32
Clean sheets
19% 6/32
19% 6/32
Streaks
Match Totals
Metz
MET
Lorient
LOR
League
Corners
Corners won
4.16
3.53
–
Corners conceded
5.16
5.23
–
Match total
9.32
8.77
9.49
Over 8.5
48% 15/31
47% 14/30
–
Over 9.5
35% 11/31
43% 13/30
–
Over 10.5
23% 7/31
30% 9/30
–
Cards
Cards
1.69
1.59
–
Opponent cards
1.53
2.22
–
Match total
3.22
3.81
3.97
Over 3.5
47% 15/32
53% 17/32
–
Over 4.5
22% 7/32
38% 12/32
–
Shots
Shots
9.72
10.88
–
Opponent shots
14.84
11.25
–
Match total
24.56
22.13
24.23
Shots on target
On target
3.70
3.78
–
Opponent on target
5.63
4.00
–
Match total
9.33
7.78
–
Fouls
Fouls
11.16
9.53
–
Opponent fouls
11.16
13.28
–
Match total
22.31
22.81
–
Possession
All games
49%
45%
–
Home games
50%
45%
–
Away games
48%
45%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Ligue 1 2025-2026 (287 games) · Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Metz
Scored · 32
13%
12%
19%
16%
6%
34%
Conceded · 72
17%
11%
18%
13%
12%
29%
Lorient
Scored · 44
9%
14%
20%
18%
16%
23%
Conceded · 49
12%
12%
8%
23%
12%
33%
25%
Scored first
48%
34%
Goals after 75'
23%
Scored first: Metz 7 of 28, Lorient 15 of 31 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
6%47%47%
Leading 2
Level 15
Trailing 15
0.66
points per game
At half-time
0%
0 of 2
Led at HT, won
7%
1 of 15
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 142nd 18
At half-time
41%38%22%
Leading 13
Level 12
Trailing 7
1.59
points per game
At half-time
69%
9 of 13
Led at HT, won
43%
3 of 7
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 192nd 25
4
Points won from losing positions in 24 · 18 games
10
13
Points dropped from winning positions in 8 · 16 games
13
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Latest Games
