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17 May 2026-7:00 pm
Stats Prediction
Result probability
60%
17%
23%
Marseille 60%
Draw 17%
Rennes 23%
2.8 – 1.7
goals per side
Expected Goals
2-1
7% chance
Most Likely Score
82%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
77%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
MAR · at home
REN · away
2.38
Goals scored per game
1.75
1.19
Goals conceded per game
1.88
1.47x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.44x
0.97x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
1.16x
Average: 1.62 home goals and 1.22 away goals per game in Ligue 1 2025-2026
Based on 32 + 32 Ligue 1 2025-2026 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Nantes (A) 3-0 · 2 May 2026
6
Substitutes
92
72
78
35
71
14
Last game lineup
4-4-2
vs Lyon (A) 4-2 · 3 May 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 4 meetings
50%
25%
25%
Marseille wins 2
Draws 1
Rennes wins 1
Goals 4 (1.00 per game)
Goals 2 (0.50 per game)
50%
2
of 4
Over 1.5 Goals
0%
0
of 4
Over 2.5 Goals
0%
0
of 4
Over 3.5 Goals
25%
1
of 4
Both Teams Scored
50%
2
of 4
Marseille Clean Sheets
25%
1
of 4
Rennes Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 4 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
L
D
L
W
L
L
D
L
W
L
L
W
W
W
L
1.66
16-5-11
PPG Overall
2.13
10-4-2
PPG at Home
1.19
6-1-9
PPG Away
L
W
W
W
W
L
W
W
W
W
D
L
W
W
W
1.75
16-8-8
PPG Overall
1.94
9-4-3
PPG at Home
1.56
7-4-5
PPG Away
Venue form: Marseille at home +37% on points per game vs Rennes away (2.13 vs 1.56)
Rest & Schedule
15
days rest
Nantes 3-0 Marseille
0 games in 14 days · 3 in 30 days
14
days rest
Lyon 4-2 Rennes
0 games in 14 days · 3 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
32
16
16
Win %
50%
63%
38%
Goals per game
3.22
3.56
2.88
Scored
1.84
2.38
1.31
Conceded
1.38
1.19
1.56
Both teams scored
50%
63%
38%
Clean sheets
25%
31%
19%
Failed to score
25%
6%
44%
xG
1.79
1.97
1.62
xGA
1.28
1.07
1.50
Overall
Home
Away
Played
32
16
16
Win %
50%
56%
44%
Goals per game
3.19
2.75
3.63
Scored
1.75
1.75
1.75
Conceded
1.44
1.00
1.88
Both teams scored
56%
69%
44%
Clean sheets
31%
25%
38%
Failed to score
19%
19%
19%
xG
1.52
1.71
1.32
xGA
1.49
1.32
1.67
Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Marseille
MAR
Rennes
REN
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
100% 32/32
94% 30/32
97%
–
Over 1.5
75% 24/32
81% 26/32
78%
72%
Over 2.5
63% 20/32
69% 22/32
66%
53%
Over 3.5
41% 13/32
50% 16/32
45%
33%
Over 4.5
19% 6/32
16% 5/32
17%
–
Under 2.5
38% 12/32
31% 10/32
34%
47%
Both teams score
BTTS
50% 16/32
56% 18/32
53%
51%
BTTS & win
25% 8/32
25% 8/32
25%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
47% 15/32
50% 16/32
48%
–
Marseille
MAR
Rennes
REN
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
72% 23/32
78% 25/32
75%
–
Over 1.5
31% 10/32
44% 14/32
38%
–
Over 2.5
9% 3/32
16% 5/32
13%
–
BTTS
13% 4/32
22% 7/32
17%
–
% of each club's games · League = Ligue 1 2025-2026 (287 games, 2.84 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
2.38 at home
1.75 away
Marseille scored 38 in 16 home games
Rennes scored 28 in 16 away games
Marseille
MAR
Rennes
REN
Scored over 0.5
75% 24/32
81% 26/32
Scored over 1.5
47% 15/32
53% 17/32
Scored over 2.5
31% 10/32
28% 9/32
Failed to score
25% 8/32
19% 6/32
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.19 at home
1.88 away
Marseille conceded 19 in 16 home games
Rennes conceded 30 in 16 away games
Marseille
MAR
Rennes
REN
Conceded over 0.5
75% 24/32
69% 22/32
Conceded over 1.5
50% 16/32
41% 13/32
Conceded over 2.5
6% 2/32
19% 6/32
Clean sheets
25% 8/32
31% 10/32
Streaks
Match Totals
Marseille
MAR
Rennes
REN
League
Corners
Corners won
5.13
5.69
–
Corners conceded
3.60
4.53
–
Match total
8.73
10.22
9.49
Over 8.5
43% 13/30
69% 22/32
–
Over 9.5
37% 11/30
56% 18/32
–
Over 10.5
23% 7/30
44% 14/32
–
Cards
Cards
2.47
1.84
–
Opponent cards
1.59
2.19
–
Match total
4.06
4.03
3.97
Over 3.5
69% 22/32
59% 19/32
–
Over 4.5
44% 14/32
44% 14/32
–
Shots
Shots
14.75
13.50
–
Opponent shots
10.03
12.81
–
Match total
24.78
26.31
24.23
Shots on target
On target
5.56
4.94
–
Opponent on target
3.97
4.03
–
Match total
9.53
8.97
–
Fouls
Fouls
12.38
12.16
–
Opponent fouls
10.53
11.88
–
Match total
22.91
24.03
–
Possession
All games
57%
54%
–
Home games
59%
55%
–
Away games
56%
52%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Ligue 1 2025-2026 (287 games) · Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Marseille
Scored · 59
12%
17%
12%
13%
17%
29%
Conceded · 44
11%
14%
7%
23%
13%
32%
Rennes
Scored · 56
12%
27%
9%
21%
11%
20%
Conceded · 46
13%
2%
22%
19%
22%
22%
56%
Scored first
63%
29%
Goals after 75'
20%
Scored first: Marseille 18 of 32, Rennes 19 of 30 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
41%34%25%
Leading 13
Level 11
Trailing 8
1.56
points per game
At half-time
77%
10 of 13
Led at HT, won
38%
3 of 8
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 242nd 35
At half-time
44%31%25%
Leading 14
Level 10
Trailing 8
1.63
points per game
At half-time
79%
11 of 14
Led at HT, won
13%
1 of 8
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 272nd 29
11
Points won from losing positions in 16 · 13 games
11
16
Points dropped from winning positions in 23 · 23 games
16
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Latest Games
