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17 May 2026-7:00 pm
Stats Prediction
Result probability
12%
15%
73%
Paris FC 12%
Draw 15%
Paris Saint Germain 73%
1.0 – 2.7
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-2
9% chance
Most Likely Score
71%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
59%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
PAR · at home
Paris Saint Germain · away
1.63
Goals scored per game
2.00
1.63
Goals conceded per game
1.00
1.01x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.64x
1.33x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.62x
Average: 1.62 home goals and 1.22 away goals per game in Ligue 1 2025-2026
Based on 32 + 31 Ligue 1 2025-2026 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Stade Brestois 29 (H) 4-0 · 3 May 2026
Substitutes
6
Last game lineup
4-3-3
vs Lorient (H) 2-2 · 2 May 2026
Substitutes
80
53
55
Head to Head
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Common Opponents
Opponent
Paris FC
PAR
Paris Saint Germain
PAR
Points on these 5
14 of 30 · 1.40 per game
21 of 27 · 2.33 per game
Form & Points per Game
W
L
W
W
D
W
L
W
W
D
W
D
D
W
D
1.28
10-11-11
PPG Overall
1.38
6-4-6
PPG at Home
1.19
4-7-5
PPG Away
D
W
W
L
W
D
W
W
L
W
W
L
W
W
L
2.26
22-4-5
PPG Overall
2.38
12-2-2
PPG at Home
2.13
10-2-3
PPG Away
Venue form: Paris Saint Germain away +54% on points per game vs Paris FC at home (2.13 vs 1.38)
Rest & Schedule
14
days rest
Paris FC 4-0 Stade Brestois 29
0 games in 14 days · 3 in 30 days
15
days rest
Paris Saint Germain 2-2 Lorient
0 games in 14 days · 4 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
32
16
16
Win %
31%
38%
25%
Goals per game
2.84
3.25
2.44
Scored
1.38
1.63
1.13
Conceded
1.47
1.63
1.31
Both teams scored
59%
50%
69%
Clean sheets
25%
25%
25%
Failed to score
28%
31%
25%
xG
1.25
1.45
1.06
xGA
1.60
1.62
1.59
Overall
Home
Away
Played
31
16
15
Win %
71%
75%
67%
Goals per game
3.13
3.25
3.00
Scored
2.26
2.50
2.00
Conceded
0.87
0.75
1.00
Both teams scored
42%
38%
47%
Clean sheets
52%
63%
40%
Failed to score
6%
0%
13%
xG
2.05
2.08
2.03
xGA
0.82
0.76
0.89
Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Paris FC
PAR
Paris Saint Germain
PAR
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
88% 28/32
100% 31/31
94%
–
Over 1.5
72% 23/32
77% 24/31
75%
72%
Over 2.5
53% 17/32
65% 20/31
59%
53%
Over 3.5
34% 11/32
35% 11/31
35%
33%
Over 4.5
25% 8/32
19% 6/31
22%
–
Under 2.5
47% 15/32
35% 11/31
41%
47%
Both teams score
BTTS
59% 19/32
42% 13/31
51%
51%
BTTS & win
19% 6/32
19% 6/31
19%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
44% 14/32
35% 11/31
40%
–
Paris FC
PAR
Paris Saint Germain
PAR
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
75% 24/32
77% 24/31
76%
–
Over 1.5
44% 14/32
45% 14/31
44%
–
Over 2.5
9% 3/32
16% 5/31
13%
–
BTTS
25% 8/32
23% 7/31
24%
–
% of each club's games · League = Ligue 1 2025-2026 (287 games, 2.84 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.63 at home
2.00 away
Paris FC scored 26 in 16 home games
Paris Saint Germain scored 30 in 15 away games
Paris FC
PAR
Paris Saint Germain
PAR
Scored over 0.5
72% 23/32
94% 29/31
Scored over 1.5
41% 13/32
61% 19/31
Scored over 2.5
19% 6/32
45% 14/31
Failed to score
28% 9/32
6% 2/31
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.63 at home
1.00 away
Paris FC conceded 26 in 16 home games
Paris Saint Germain conceded 15 in 15 away games
Paris FC
PAR
Paris Saint Germain
PAR
Conceded over 0.5
75% 24/32
48% 15/31
Conceded over 1.5
38% 12/32
26% 8/31
Conceded over 2.5
19% 6/32
13% 4/31
Clean sheets
25% 8/32
52% 16/31
Streaks
1
Won last game
2
Longest win run this season
3
Unbeaten last loss 4 games ago
17
Scored in a row
7
Over 2.5 goals in a row
7
Longest win run this season
Match Totals
Paris FC
PAR
Paris Saint Germain
PAR
League
Corners
Corners won
4.44
5.90
–
Corners conceded
5.44
3.31
–
Match total
9.88
9.21
9.49
Over 8.5
63% 20/32
52% 15/29
–
Over 9.5
56% 18/32
38% 11/29
–
Over 10.5
41% 13/32
24% 7/29
–
Cards
Cards
2.13
1.13
–
Opponent cards
1.69
1.58
–
Match total
3.81
2.71
3.97
Over 3.5
47% 15/32
23% 7/31
–
Over 4.5
31% 10/32
10% 3/31
–
Shots
Shots
11.31
17.68
–
Opponent shots
12.16
8.16
–
Match total
23.47
25.84
24.23
Shots on target
On target
3.81
6.93
–
Opponent on target
3.91
3.26
–
Match total
7.72
10.19
–
Fouls
Fouls
10.50
9.68
–
Opponent fouls
10.56
9.16
–
Match total
21.06
18.84
–
Possession
All games
51%
69%
–
Home games
53%
70%
–
Away games
49%
69%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Ligue 1 2025-2026 (287 games) · Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Paris FC
Scored · 44
16%
21%
11%
9%
16%
27%
Conceded · 47
6%
19%
19%
19%
9%
28%
Paris Saint Germain
Scored · 70
16%
9%
21%
14%
17%
23%
Conceded · 27
11%
22%
15%
19%
11%
22%
46%
Scored first
84%
27%
Goals after 75'
23%
Scored first: Paris FC 13 of 28, Paris Saint Germain 26 of 31 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
25%41%34%
Leading 8
Level 13
Trailing 11
1.16
points per game
At half-time
88%
7 of 8
Led at HT, won
27%
3 of 11
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 212nd 23
At half-time
55%29%16%
Leading 17
Level 9
Trailing 5
1.94
points per game
At half-time
100%
17 of 17
Led at HT, won
20%
1 of 5
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 322nd 38
7
Points won from losing positions in 16 · 6 games
1
9
Points dropped from winning positions in 14 · 26 games
8
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Latest Games
