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17 May 2026-1:00 pm
Stats Prediction
Result probability
76%
15%
9%
Juventus 76%
Draw 15%
Fiorentina 9%
2.4 – 0.7
goals per side
Expected Goals
2-0
13% chance
Most Likely Score
61%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
46%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
Juventus · at home
Fiorentina · away
1.94
Goals scored per game
1.00
0.78
Goals conceded per game
1.61
1.52x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
0.89x
0.69x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
1.26x
Average: 1.28 home goals and 1.12 away goals per game in Serie A 2025-2026
Based on 36 + 35 Serie A 2025-2026 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Lecce (A) 0-1 · 9 May 2026
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-3-3
vs AS Roma (A) 4-0 · 4 May 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings
30%
40%
30%
Juventus wins 3
Draws 4
Fiorentina wins 3
Goals 8 (0.80 per game)
Goals 13 (1.30 per game)
70%
7
of 10
Over 1.5 Goals
30%
3
of 10
Over 2.5 Goals
10%
1
of 10
Over 3.5 Goals
40%
4
of 10
Both Teams Scored
30%
3
of 10
Juventus Clean Sheets
30%
3
of 10
Fiorentina Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 10 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Opponent
Juventus
JUV
Fiorentina
FIO
Points on these 5
16 of 30 · 1.60 per game
6 of 30 · 0.60 per game
Form & Points per Game
W
D
D
W
W
W
D
D
W
W
W
D
W
W
D
1.89
19-11-6
PPG Overall
2.06
10-7-1
PPG at Home
1.72
9-4-5
PPG Away
L
D
D
W
W
L
D
D
W
W
D
W
D
L
W
1.06
8-13-14
PPG Overall
1.12
4-7-6
PPG at Home
1.00
4-6-8
PPG Away
Venue form: Juventus at home +106% on points per game vs Fiorentina away (2.06 vs 1.00)
Rest & Schedule
8
days rest
Lecce 0-1 Juventus
2 games in 14 days · 4 in 30 days
13
days rest
AS Roma 4-0 Fiorentina
1 game in 14 days · 3 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
36
18
18
Win %
53%
56%
50%
Goals per game
2.47
2.72
2.22
Scored
1.64
1.94
1.33
Conceded
0.83
0.78
0.89
Both teams scored
44%
50%
39%
Clean sheets
44%
44%
44%
Failed to score
19%
17%
22%
xG
1.76
2.00
1.51
xGA
0.87
0.81
0.94
Overall
Home
Away
Played
35
17
18
Win %
23%
24%
22%
Goals per game
2.49
2.35
2.61
Scored
1.09
1.18
1.00
Conceded
1.40
1.18
1.61
Both teams scored
60%
65%
56%
Clean sheets
23%
29%
17%
Failed to score
29%
18%
39%
xG
1.39
1.64
1.16
xGA
1.34
1.14
1.52
Serie A 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Juventus
JUV
Fiorentina
FIO
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
92% 33/36
89% 31/35
90%
–
Over 1.5
72% 26/36
71% 25/35
72%
70%
Over 2.5
39% 14/36
54% 19/35
47%
45%
Over 3.5
22% 8/36
26% 9/35
24%
22%
Over 4.5
14% 5/36
6% 2/35
10%
–
Under 2.5
61% 22/36
46% 16/35
53%
55%
Both teams score
BTTS
44% 16/36
60% 21/35
52%
45%
BTTS & win
17% 6/36
11% 4/35
14%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
28% 10/36
46% 16/35
37%
–
Juventus
JUV
Fiorentina
FIO
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
72% 26/36
66% 23/35
69%
–
Over 1.5
22% 8/36
23% 8/35
23%
–
Over 2.5
8% 3/36
11% 4/35
10%
–
BTTS
14% 5/36
9% 3/35
11%
–
% of each club's games · League = Serie A 2025-2026 (354 games, 2.41 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.94 at home
1.00 away
Juventus scored 35 in 18 home games
Fiorentina scored 18 in 18 away games
Juventus
JUV
Fiorentina
FIO
Scored over 0.5
81% 29/36
71% 25/35
Scored over 1.5
47% 17/36
23% 8/35
Scored over 2.5
22% 8/36
6% 2/35
Failed to score
19% 7/36
29% 10/35
Goals conceded per game at this venue
0.78 at home
1.61 away
Juventus conceded 14 in 18 home games
Fiorentina conceded 29 in 18 away games
Juventus
JUV
Fiorentina
FIO
Conceded over 0.5
56% 20/36
77% 27/35
Conceded over 1.5
19% 7/36
46% 16/35
Conceded over 2.5
8% 3/36
14% 5/35
Clean sheets
44% 16/36
23% 8/35
Streaks
10
Unbeaten last loss 11 games ago
2
Scored in a row
3
Longest win run this season
3
Without a win last win 4 games ago
2
Failed to score in a row
2
Longest win run this season
Match Totals
Juventus
JUV
Fiorentina
FIO
League
Corners
Corners won
5.44
4.54
–
Corners conceded
3.68
4.60
–
Match total
9.12
9.14
8.83
Over 8.5
47% 16/34
57% 20/35
–
Over 9.5
38% 13/34
51% 18/35
–
Over 10.5
26% 9/34
29% 10/35
–
Cards
Cards
1.44
2.46
–
Opponent cards
2.08
2.37
–
Match total
3.53
4.83
3.88
Over 3.5
53% 19/36
74% 26/35
–
Over 4.5
36% 13/36
63% 22/35
–
Shots
Shots
16.28
12.83
–
Opponent shots
10.11
12.97
–
Match total
26.39
25.80
24.38
Shots on target
On target
5.94
3.64
–
Opponent on target
2.88
4.61
–
Match total
8.82
8.24
–
Fouls
Fouls
12.08
12.17
–
Opponent fouls
10.11
15.54
–
Match total
22.19
27.71
–
Possession
All games
58%
51%
–
Home games
59%
53%
–
Away games
56%
50%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Serie A 2025-2026 (354 games) · Serie A 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Juventus
Scored · 59
17%
10%
12%
17%
22%
22%
Conceded · 30
14%
10%
23%
17%
13%
23%
Fiorentina
Scored · 38
11%
18%
11%
26%
18%
16%
Conceded · 49
16%
12%
12%
21%
16%
23%
64%
Scored first
48%
22%
Goals after 75'
16%
Scored first: Juventus 21 of 33, Fiorentina 15 of 31 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Serie A 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
39%36%25%
Leading 14
Level 13
Trailing 9
1.53
points per game
At half-time
86%
12 of 14
Led at HT, won
56%
5 of 9
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 232nd 36
At half-time
23%37%40%
Leading 8
Level 13
Trailing 14
1.06
points per game
At half-time
75%
6 of 8
Led at HT, won
29%
4 of 14
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 152nd 23
11
Points won from losing positions in 13 · 20 games
6
6
Points dropped from winning positions in 22 · 18 games
24
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Serie A 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
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