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17 May 2026-1:00 pm
Stats Prediction
Result probability
43%
27%
30%
Atalanta 43%
Draw 27%
Bologna 30%
1.3 – 1.1
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-1
13% chance
Most Likely Score
43%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
48%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
Atalanta · at home
Bologna · away
1.39
Goals scored per game
1.53
0.78
Goals conceded per game
1.24
1.08x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.36x
0.69x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.96x
Average: 1.28 home goals and 1.12 away goals per game in Serie A 2025-2026
Based on 35 + 35 Serie A 2025-2026 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
3-4-1-2
vs Genoa (H) 0-0 · 2 May 2026
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Cagliari (H) 0-0 · 3 May 2026
Substitutes
12
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings
50%
30%
20%
Atalanta wins 5
Draws 3
Bologna wins 2
Goals 15 (1.50 per game)
Goals 7 (0.70 per game)
70%
7
of 10
Over 1.5 Goals
30%
3
of 10
Over 2.5 Goals
20%
2
of 10
Over 3.5 Goals
30%
3
of 10
Both Teams Scored
50%
5
of 10
Atalanta Clean Sheets
30%
3
of 10
Bologna Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 10 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
D
L
D
L
W
D
L
D
L
W
W
D
D
L
W
1.57
14-13-8
PPG Overall
1.83
9-6-3
PPG at Home
1.29
5-7-5
PPG Away
D
L
L
W
W
D
L
L
W
W
L
W
L
W
W
1.40
14-7-14
PPG Overall
1.17
6-3-9
PPG at Home
1.65
8-4-5
PPG Away
Venue form: Atalanta at home +11% on points per game vs Bologna away (1.83 vs 1.65)
Rest & Schedule
15
days rest
Atalanta 0-0 Genoa
0 games in 14 days · 3 in 30 days
14
days rest
Bologna 0-0 Cagliari
0 games in 14 days · 3 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
35
18
17
Win %
40%
50%
29%
Goals per game
2.26
2.17
2.35
Scored
1.34
1.39
1.29
Conceded
0.91
0.78
1.06
Both teams scored
51%
44%
59%
Clean sheets
37%
39%
35%
Failed to score
20%
28%
12%
xG
1.58
1.80
1.33
xGA
1.10
0.87
1.35
Overall
Home
Away
Played
35
18
17
Win %
40%
33%
47%
Goals per game
2.37
2.00
2.76
Scored
1.20
0.89
1.53
Conceded
1.17
1.11
1.24
Both teams scored
43%
28%
59%
Clean sheets
31%
39%
24%
Failed to score
31%
44%
18%
xG
1.15
1.26
1.04
xGA
1.16
1.15
1.17
Serie A 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Atalanta
ATA
Bologna
BOL
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
91% 32/35
94% 33/35
93%
–
Over 1.5
74% 26/35
71% 25/35
73%
70%
Over 2.5
37% 13/35
43% 15/35
40%
45%
Over 3.5
17% 6/35
23% 8/35
20%
22%
Over 4.5
6% 2/35
6% 2/35
6%
–
Under 2.5
63% 22/35
57% 20/35
60%
55%
Both teams score
BTTS
51% 18/35
43% 15/35
47%
45%
BTTS & win
11% 4/35
14% 5/35
13%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
26% 9/35
34% 12/35
30%
–
Atalanta
ATA
Bologna
BOL
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
74% 26/35
51% 18/35
63%
–
Over 1.5
26% 9/35
29% 10/35
27%
–
Over 2.5
9% 3/35
9% 3/35
9%
–
BTTS
11% 4/35
14% 5/35
13%
–
% of each club's games · League = Serie A 2025-2026 (354 games, 2.41 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.39 at home
1.53 away
Atalanta scored 25 in 18 home games
Bologna scored 26 in 17 away games
Atalanta
ATA
Bologna
BOL
Scored over 0.5
80% 28/35
69% 24/35
Scored over 1.5
37% 13/35
37% 13/35
Scored over 2.5
11% 4/35
11% 4/35
Failed to score
20% 7/35
31% 11/35
Goals conceded per game at this venue
0.78 at home
1.24 away
Atalanta conceded 14 in 18 home games
Bologna conceded 21 in 17 away games
Atalanta
ATA
Bologna
BOL
Conceded over 0.5
63% 22/35
69% 24/35
Conceded over 1.5
17% 6/35
37% 13/35
Conceded over 2.5
11% 4/35
11% 4/35
Clean sheets
37% 13/35
31% 11/35
Streaks
Match Totals
Atalanta
ATA
Bologna
BOL
League
Corners
Corners won
6.06
4.59
–
Corners conceded
4.24
4.29
–
Match total
10.29
8.88
8.83
Over 8.5
68% 23/34
56% 19/34
–
Over 9.5
53% 18/34
38% 13/34
–
Over 10.5
44% 15/34
29% 10/34
–
Cards
Cards
1.66
1.89
–
Opponent cards
1.46
2.11
–
Match total
3.11
4.00
3.88
Over 3.5
43% 15/35
51% 18/35
–
Over 4.5
9% 3/35
43% 15/35
–
Shots
Shots
14.80
13.00
–
Opponent shots
11.46
9.83
–
Match total
26.26
22.83
24.38
Shots on target
On target
4.84
3.88
–
Opponent on target
3.91
3.72
–
Match total
8.75
7.59
–
Fouls
Fouls
11.34
12.71
–
Opponent fouls
10.23
14.23
–
Match total
21.57
26.94
–
Possession
All games
56%
56%
–
Home games
56%
57%
–
Away games
55%
54%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Serie A 2025-2026 (354 games) · Serie A 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Atalanta
Scored · 47
15%
8%
23%
15%
13%
26%
Conceded · 32
9%
25%
19%
12%
16%
19%
Bologna
Scored · 42
5%
17%
19%
26%
14%
19%
Conceded · 41
12%
5%
20%
20%
24%
19%
56%
Scored first
48%
26%
Goals after 75'
19%
Scored first: Atalanta 18 of 32, Bologna 16 of 33 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Serie A 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
37%37%26%
Leading 13
Level 13
Trailing 9
1.49
points per game
At half-time
92%
12 of 13
Led at HT, won
44%
4 of 9
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 222nd 25
At half-time
23%57%20%
Leading 8
Level 20
Trailing 7
1.26
points per game
At half-time
75%
6 of 8
Led at HT, won
0%
0 of 7
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 172nd 25
8
Points won from losing positions in 14 · 19 games
11
10
Points dropped from winning positions in 19 · 20 games
14
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Serie A 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
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