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14 May 2026-7:30 pm
Stats Prediction
Result probability
85%
10%
Real Madrid 85%
Draw 10%
Oviedo 5%
3.2 – 0.7
goals per side
Expected Goals
3-0
11% chance
Most Likely Score
75%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
49%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
Real Madrid · at home
OVI · away
2.29
Goals scored per game
1.00
0.82
Goals conceded per game
2.18
1.46x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
0.88x
0.72x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
1.39x
Average: 1.57 home goals and 1.14 away goals per game in La Liga 2025-2026
Based on 34 + 34 La Liga 2025-2026 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-4-2
vs Espanyol (A) 0-2 · 3 May 2026
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-4-2
vs Real Betis (A) 3-0 · 3 May 2026
23
Substitutes
27
Head to Head
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
W
D
W
D
L
W
D
W
D
L
W
W
W
L
L
2.26
24-5-5
PPG Overall
2.53
14-1-2
PPG at Home
2.00
10-4-3
PPG Away
L
L
D
W
W
L
L
D
W
W
L
W
D
L
L
0.82
6-10-18
PPG Overall
1.06
4-6-7
PPG at Home
0.59
2-4-11
PPG Away
Venue form: Real Madrid at home +329% on points per game vs Oviedo away (2.53 vs 0.59)
Rest & Schedule
11
days rest
Espanyol 0-2 Real Madrid
1 game in 14 days · 3 in 30 days
11
days rest
Real Betis 3-0 Oviedo
1 game in 14 days · 3 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
34
17
17
Win %
71%
82%
59%
Goals per game
2.97
3.12
2.82
Scored
2.06
2.29
1.82
Conceded
0.91
0.82
1.00
Both teams scored
59%
59%
59%
Clean sheets
35%
29%
41%
Failed to score
9%
12%
6%
xG
2.01
2.29
1.72
xGA
1.09
0.92
1.25
Overall
Home
Away
Played
34
17
17
Win %
18%
24%
12%
Goals per game
2.35
1.53
3.18
Scored
0.76
0.53
1.00
Conceded
1.59
1.00
2.18
Both teams scored
35%
29%
41%
Clean sheets
26%
47%
6%
Failed to score
50%
47%
53%
xG
0.91
0.78
1.05
xGA
1.53
1.26
1.79
La Liga 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Real Madrid
REA
Oviedo
OVI
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
97% 33/34
88% 30/34
93%
–
Over 1.5
88% 30/34
68% 23/34
78%
79%
Over 2.5
59% 20/34
41% 14/34
50%
51%
Over 3.5
26% 9/34
18% 6/34
22%
26%
Over 4.5
18% 6/34
12% 4/34
15%
–
Under 2.5
41% 14/34
59% 20/34
50%
49%
Both teams score
BTTS
59% 20/34
35% 12/34
47%
57%
BTTS & win
38% 13/34
3% 1/34
21%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
50% 17/34
24% 8/34
37%
–
Real Madrid
REA
Oviedo
OVI
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
68% 23/34
68% 23/34
68%
–
Over 1.5
29% 10/34
29% 10/34
29%
–
Over 2.5
15% 5/34
3% 1/34
9%
–
BTTS
15% 5/34
9% 3/34
12%
–
% of each club's games · League = La Liga 2025-2026 (345 games, 2.70 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
2.29 at home
1.00 away
Real Madrid scored 39 in 17 home games
Oviedo scored 17 in 17 away games
Real Madrid
REA
Oviedo
OVI
Scored over 0.5
91% 31/34
50% 17/34
Scored over 1.5
71% 24/34
18% 6/34
Scored over 2.5
26% 9/34
9% 3/34
Failed to score
9% 3/34
50% 17/34
Goals conceded per game at this venue
0.82 at home
2.18 away
Real Madrid conceded 14 in 17 home games
Oviedo conceded 37 in 17 away games
Real Madrid
REA
Oviedo
OVI
Conceded over 0.5
65% 22/34
74% 25/34
Conceded over 1.5
18% 6/34
50% 17/34
Conceded over 2.5
3% 1/34
29% 10/34
Clean sheets
35% 12/34
26% 9/34
Streaks
4
Unbeaten last loss 5 games ago
8
Scored in a row
8
Longest win run this season
3
Without a win last win 4 games ago
3
Conceded in a row
2
Over 2.5 goals in a row
2
Longest win run this season
Match Totals
Real Madrid
REA
Oviedo
OVI
League
Corners
Corners won
6.35
3.81
–
Corners conceded
3.94
5.69
–
Match total
10.29
9.50
9.65
Over 8.5
77% 24/31
63% 20/32
–
Over 9.5
65% 20/31
50% 16/32
–
Over 10.5
45% 14/31
41% 13/32
–
Cards
Cards
2.00
2.21
–
Opponent cards
2.59
1.50
–
Match total
4.59
3.71
4.62
Over 3.5
50% 17/34
47% 16/34
–
Over 4.5
44% 15/34
32% 11/34
–
Shots
Shots
17.65
9.88
–
Opponent shots
10.59
14.38
–
Match total
28.24
24.26
24.67
Shots on target
On target
6.63
3.24
–
Opponent on target
3.40
5.73
–
Match total
10.03
8.97
–
Fouls
Fouls
10.47
12.67
–
Opponent fouls
13.29
11.55
–
Match total
23.76
24.21
–
Possession
All games
59%
46%
–
Home games
60%
49%
–
Away games
59%
43%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = La Liga 2025-2026 (345 games) · La Liga 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Real Madrid
Scored · 70
7%
15%
20%
20%
14%
24%
Conceded · 31
3%
10%
23%
19%
19%
26%
Oviedo
Scored · 26
8%
8%
31%
19%
15%
19%
Conceded · 54
11%
17%
15%
15%
18%
24%
73%
Scored first
43%
24%
Goals after 75'
19%
Scored first: Real Madrid 24 of 33, Oviedo 13 of 30 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · La Liga 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
47%38%15%
Leading 16
Level 13
Trailing 5
1.79
points per game
At half-time
94%
15 of 16
Led at HT, won
40%
2 of 5
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 292nd 41
At half-time
21%41%38%
Leading 7
Level 14
Trailing 13
1.03
points per game
At half-time
57%
4 of 7
Led at HT, won
15%
2 of 13
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 122nd 14
8
Points won from losing positions in 9 · 22 games
6
7
Points dropped from winning positions in 27 · 14 games
19
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · La Liga 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Latest Games
