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17 May 2026-5:00 pm
Stats Prediction
Result probability
38%
30%
32%
Rayo Vallecano 38%
Draw 30%
Villarreal 32%
1.1 – 1.0
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-0
14% chance
Most Likely Score
35%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
RAY · at home
VIL · away
1.24
Goals scored per game
1.35
0.82
Goals conceded per game
1.41
0.79x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.19x
0.72x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.90x
Average: 1.57 home goals and 1.14 away goals per game in La Liga 2025-2026
Based on 34 + 34 La Liga 2025-2026 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Getafe (A) 0-2 · 3 May 2026
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-4-2
vs Levante (H) 5-1 · 2 May 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 7 meetings
29%
14%
57%
Rayo Vallecano wins 2
Draws 1
Villarreal wins 4
Goals 5 (0.71 per game)
Goals 14 (2.00 per game)
71%
5
of 7
Over 1.5 Goals
43%
3
of 7
Over 2.5 Goals
29%
2
of 7
Over 3.5 Goals
43%
3
of 7
Both Teams Scored
14%
1
of 7
Rayo Vallecano Clean Sheets
43%
3
of 7
Villarreal Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 7 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Opponent
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
Villarreal
VIL
Points on these 5
17 of 30 · 1.70 per game
23 of 30 · 2.30 per game
Form & Points per Game
W
D
W
L
W
W
D
W
L
W
L
D
D
W
D
1.24
10-12-12
PPG Overall
1.59
6-9-2
PPG at Home
0.88
4-3-10
PPG Away
W
W
D
W
L
W
W
D
W
L
W
D
W
L
W
2.00
21-5-8
PPG Overall
2.53
14-1-2
PPG at Home
1.47
7-4-6
PPG Away
Venue form: Rayo Vallecano at home +8% on points per game vs Villarreal away (1.59 vs 1.47)
Rest & Schedule
14
days rest
Getafe 0-2 Rayo Vallecano
0 games in 14 days · 3 in 30 days
15
days rest
Villarreal 5-1 Levante
0 games in 14 days · 3 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
34
17
17
Win %
29%
35%
24%
Goals per game
2.24
2.06
2.41
Scored
1.03
1.24
0.82
Conceded
1.21
0.82
1.59
Both teams scored
41%
53%
29%
Clean sheets
32%
41%
24%
Failed to score
35%
18%
53%
xG
1.32
1.56
1.08
xGA
1.31
1.00
1.61
Overall
Home
Away
Played
34
17
17
Win %
62%
82%
41%
Goals per game
3.03
3.29
2.76
Scored
1.88
2.41
1.35
Conceded
1.15
0.88
1.41
Both teams scored
62%
59%
65%
Clean sheets
24%
29%
18%
Failed to score
15%
12%
18%
xG
1.54
1.82
1.27
xGA
1.16
1.12
1.20
La Liga 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
Villarreal
VIL
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
91% 31/34
100% 34/34
96%
–
Over 1.5
68% 23/34
91% 31/34
79%
79%
Over 2.5
38% 13/34
59% 20/34
49%
51%
Over 3.5
18% 6/34
35% 12/34
26%
26%
Over 4.5
6% 2/34
15% 5/34
10%
–
Under 2.5
62% 21/34
41% 14/34
51%
49%
Both teams score
BTTS
41% 14/34
62% 21/34
51%
57%
BTTS & win
6% 2/34
38% 13/34
22%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
18% 6/34
53% 18/34
35%
–
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
Villarreal
VIL
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
71% 24/34
79% 27/34
75%
–
Over 1.5
24% 8/34
35% 12/34
29%
–
Over 2.5
6% 2/34
15% 5/34
10%
–
BTTS
12% 4/34
12% 4/34
12%
–
% of each club's games · League = La Liga 2025-2026 (345 games, 2.70 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.24 at home
1.35 away
Rayo Vallecano scored 21 in 17 home games
Villarreal scored 23 in 17 away games
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
Villarreal
VIL
Scored over 0.5
65% 22/34
85% 29/34
Scored over 1.5
24% 8/34
62% 21/34
Scored over 2.5
15% 5/34
24% 8/34
Failed to score
35% 12/34
15% 5/34
Goals conceded per game at this venue
0.82 at home
1.41 away
Rayo Vallecano conceded 14 in 17 home games
Villarreal conceded 24 in 17 away games
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
Villarreal
VIL
Conceded over 0.5
68% 23/34
76% 26/34
Conceded over 1.5
26% 9/34
29% 10/34
Conceded over 2.5
21% 7/34
6% 2/34
Clean sheets
32% 11/34
24% 8/34
Streaks
3
Unbeaten last loss 4 games ago
3
Scored in a row
3
Longest win run this season
4
Unbeaten last loss 5 games ago
10
Conceded in a row
4
Scored in a row
4
Both teams scored in a row
6
Longest win run this season
Match Totals
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
Villarreal
VIL
League
Corners
Corners won
5.82
4.10
–
Corners conceded
4.94
5.07
–
Match total
10.76
9.17
9.65
Over 8.5
76% 26/34
53% 16/30
–
Over 9.5
62% 21/34
47% 14/30
–
Over 10.5
59% 20/34
33% 10/30
–
Cards
Cards
2.97
2.32
–
Opponent cards
2.41
2.21
–
Match total
5.38
4.53
4.62
Over 3.5
79% 27/34
65% 22/34
–
Over 4.5
62% 21/34
47% 16/34
–
Shots
Shots
13.71
12.15
–
Opponent shots
11.97
12.29
–
Match total
25.68
24.44
24.67
Shots on target
On target
4.62
4.74
–
Opponent on target
4.03
3.87
–
Match total
8.65
8.61
–
Fouls
Fouls
13.06
12.00
–
Opponent fouls
11.32
12.24
–
Match total
24.38
24.24
–
Possession
All games
54%
44%
–
Home games
55%
47%
–
Away games
52%
40%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = La Liga 2025-2026 (345 games) · La Liga 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Rayo Vallecano
Scored · 35
6%
12%
31%
11%
17%
23%
Conceded · 41
12%
15%
15%
14%
17%
27%
Villarreal
Scored · 64
12%
16%
22%
19%
16%
15%
Conceded · 39
8%
10%
15%
21%
18%
28%
42%
Scored first
68%
23%
Goals after 75'
16%
Scored first: Rayo Vallecano 13 of 31, Villarreal 23 of 34 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · La Liga 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
26%38%35%
Leading 9
Level 13
Trailing 12
1.18
points per game
At half-time
67%
6 of 9
Led at HT, won
25%
3 of 12
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 172nd 18
At half-time
53%24%24%
Leading 18
Level 8
Trailing 8
1.82
points per game
At half-time
89%
16 of 18
Led at HT, won
38%
3 of 8
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 322nd 32
6
Points won from losing positions in 18 · 12 games
8
9
Points dropped from winning positions in 14 · 25 games
8
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · La Liga 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Latest Games
