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24 May 2026-4:00 pm
Stats Prediction
Result probability
77%
14%
9%
Real Madrid 77%
Draw 14%
Athletic Club 9%
2.7 – 0.8
goals per side
Expected Goals
2-0
11% chance
Most Likely Score
67%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
Real Madrid · at home
BIL · away
2.29
Goals scored per game
1.12
0.82
Goals conceded per game
1.82
1.46x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
0.98x
0.72x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
1.16x
Average: 1.57 home goals and 1.14 away goals per game in La Liga 2025-2026
Based on 34 + 34 La Liga 2025-2026 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-4-2
vs Espanyol (A) 0-2 · 3 May 2026
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Alaves (A) 2-4 · 2 May 2026
Substitutes
25
Head to Head
Last 7 meetings
71%
14%
14%
Real Madrid wins 5
Draws 1
Athletic Club wins 1
Goals 11 (1.57 per game)
Goals 4 (0.57 per game)
71%
5
of 7
Over 1.5 Goals
43%
3
of 7
Over 2.5 Goals
0%
0
of 7
Over 3.5 Goals
43%
3
of 7
Both Teams Scored
57%
4
of 7
Real Madrid Clean Sheets
0%
0
of 7
Athletic Club Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 7 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Opponent
Real Madrid
REA
Athletic Club
BIL
Points on these 5
22 of 30 · 2.20 per game
16 of 27 · 1.78 per game
Form & Points per Game
W
D
W
D
L
W
D
W
D
L
W
W
W
L
L
2.26
24-5-5
PPG Overall
2.53
14-1-2
PPG at Home
2.00
10-4-3
PPG Away
W
L
W
L
L
W
L
W
L
L
W
L
L
D
W
1.29
13-5-16
PPG Overall
1.71
9-2-6
PPG at Home
0.88
4-3-10
PPG Away
Venue form: Real Madrid at home +188% on points per game vs Athletic Club away (2.53 vs 0.88)
Rest & Schedule
21
days rest
Espanyol 0-2 Real Madrid
0 games in 14 days · 2 in 30 days
22
days rest
Alaves 2-4 Athletic Club
0 games in 14 days · 2 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
34
17
17
Win %
71%
82%
59%
Goals per game
2.97
3.12
2.82
Scored
2.06
2.29
1.82
Conceded
0.91
0.82
1.00
Both teams scored
59%
59%
59%
Clean sheets
35%
29%
41%
Failed to score
9%
12%
6%
xG
2.01
2.29
1.72
xGA
1.09
0.92
1.25
Overall
Home
Away
Played
34
17
17
Win %
38%
53%
24%
Goals per game
2.65
2.35
2.94
Scored
1.18
1.24
1.12
Conceded
1.47
1.12
1.82
Both teams scored
53%
53%
53%
Clean sheets
18%
24%
12%
Failed to score
32%
24%
41%
xG
1.30
1.41
1.20
xGA
1.06
0.78
1.34
La Liga 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Real Madrid
REA
Athletic Club
BIL
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
97% 33/34
97% 33/34
97%
–
Over 1.5
88% 30/34
74% 25/34
81%
79%
Over 2.5
59% 20/34
50% 17/34
54%
51%
Over 3.5
26% 9/34
21% 7/34
24%
26%
Over 4.5
18% 6/34
18% 6/34
18%
–
Under 2.5
41% 14/34
50% 17/34
46%
49%
Both teams score
BTTS
59% 20/34
53% 18/34
56%
57%
BTTS & win
38% 13/34
24% 8/34
31%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
50% 17/34
41% 14/34
46%
–
Real Madrid
REA
Athletic Club
BIL
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
68% 23/34
68% 23/34
68%
–
Over 1.5
29% 10/34
32% 11/34
31%
–
Over 2.5
15% 5/34
3% 1/34
9%
–
BTTS
15% 5/34
12% 4/34
13%
–
% of each club's games · League = La Liga 2025-2026 (345 games, 2.70 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
2.29 at home
1.12 away
Real Madrid scored 39 in 17 home games
Athletic Club scored 19 in 17 away games
Real Madrid
REA
Athletic Club
BIL
Scored over 0.5
91% 31/34
68% 23/34
Scored over 1.5
71% 24/34
35% 12/34
Scored over 2.5
26% 9/34
9% 3/34
Failed to score
9% 3/34
32% 11/34
Goals conceded per game at this venue
0.82 at home
1.82 away
Real Madrid conceded 14 in 17 home games
Athletic Club conceded 31 in 17 away games
Real Madrid
REA
Athletic Club
BIL
Conceded over 0.5
65% 22/34
82% 28/34
Conceded over 1.5
18% 6/34
44% 15/34
Conceded over 2.5
3% 1/34
18% 6/34
Clean sheets
35% 12/34
18% 6/34
Streaks
4
Unbeaten last loss 5 games ago
8
Scored in a row
8
Longest win run this season
1
Won last game
4
Scored in a row
2
Conceded in a row
2
Both teams scored in a row
3
Longest win run this season
Match Totals
Real Madrid
REA
Athletic Club
BIL
League
Corners
Corners won
6.35
5.53
–
Corners conceded
3.94
3.76
–
Match total
10.29
9.29
9.65
Over 8.5
77% 24/31
65% 22/34
–
Over 9.5
65% 20/31
50% 17/34
–
Over 10.5
45% 14/31
38% 13/34
–
Cards
Cards
2.00
2.35
–
Opponent cards
2.59
2.12
–
Match total
4.59
4.47
4.62
Over 3.5
50% 17/34
62% 21/34
–
Over 4.5
44% 15/34
50% 17/34
–
Shots
Shots
17.65
13.47
–
Opponent shots
10.59
9.38
–
Match total
28.24
22.85
24.67
Shots on target
On target
6.63
4.61
–
Opponent on target
3.40
4.15
–
Match total
10.03
8.76
–
Fouls
Fouls
10.47
12.88
–
Opponent fouls
13.29
10.85
–
Match total
23.76
23.74
–
Possession
All games
59%
49%
–
Home games
60%
49%
–
Away games
59%
49%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = La Liga 2025-2026 (345 games) · La Liga 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Real Madrid
Scored · 70
7%
15%
20%
20%
14%
24%
Conceded · 31
3%
10%
23%
19%
19%
26%
Athletic Club
Scored · 40
8%
13%
23%
12%
12%
32%
Conceded · 50
14%
4%
20%
22%
16%
24%
73%
Scored first
42%
24%
Goals after 75'
33%
Scored first: Real Madrid 24 of 33, Athletic Club 14 of 33 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · La Liga 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
47%38%15%
Leading 16
Level 13
Trailing 5
1.79
points per game
At half-time
94%
15 of 16
Led at HT, won
40%
2 of 5
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 292nd 41
At half-time
24%44%32%
Leading 8
Level 15
Trailing 11
1.15
points per game
At half-time
88%
7 of 8
Led at HT, won
55%
6 of 11
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 172nd 23
8
Points won from losing positions in 9 · 22 games
10
7
Points dropped from winning positions in 27 · 16 games
9
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · La Liga 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
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