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24 May 2026-4:00 pm
Stats Prediction
Result probability
46%
27%
27%
Alaves 46%
Draw 27%
Rayo Vallecano 27%
1.4 – 1.0
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-0
13% chance
Most Likely Score
42%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
47%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
ALA · at home
RAY · away
1.35
Goals scored per game
0.82
1.35
Goals conceded per game
1.59
0.86x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
0.72x
1.19x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
1.01x
Average: 1.57 home goals and 1.14 away goals per game in La Liga 2025-2026
Based on 35 + 34 La Liga 2025-2026 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
5-3-2
vs Elche (A) 1-1 · 9 May 2026
22
Substitutes
34
27
20
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Getafe (A) 0-2 · 3 May 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 5 meetings
20%
80%
Alaves wins 1
Draws 0
Rayo Vallecano wins 4
Goals 1 (0.20 per game)
Goals 6 (1.20 per game)
40%
2
of 5
Over 1.5 Goals
0%
0
of 5
Over 2.5 Goals
0%
0
of 5
Over 3.5 Goals
0%
0
of 5
Both Teams Scored
20%
1
of 5
Alaves Clean Sheets
80%
4
of 5
Rayo Vallecano Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 5 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Opponent
Alaves
ALA
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
Points on these 5
15 of 30 · 1.50 per game
15 of 30 · 1.50 per game
Form & Points per Game
D
L
W
L
D
D
L
W
L
D
D
W
D
L
L
1.06
9-10-16
PPG Overall
1.41
6-6-5
PPG at Home
0.72
3-4-11
PPG Away
W
D
W
L
W
W
D
W
L
W
L
D
D
W
D
1.24
10-12-12
PPG Overall
1.59
6-9-2
PPG at Home
0.88
4-3-10
PPG Away
Venue form: Alaves at home +60% on points per game vs Rayo Vallecano away (1.41 vs 0.88)
Rest & Schedule
15
days rest
Elche 1-1 Alaves
0 games in 14 days · 3 in 30 days
21
days rest
Getafe 0-2 Rayo Vallecano
0 games in 14 days · 2 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
35
17
18
Win %
26%
35%
17%
Goals per game
2.71
2.71
2.72
Scored
1.17
1.35
1.00
Conceded
1.54
1.35
1.72
Both teams scored
66%
76%
56%
Clean sheets
9%
12%
6%
Failed to score
29%
18%
39%
xG
1.20
1.29
1.13
xGA
1.27
1.09
1.44
Overall
Home
Away
Played
34
17
17
Win %
29%
35%
24%
Goals per game
2.24
2.06
2.41
Scored
1.03
1.24
0.82
Conceded
1.21
0.82
1.59
Both teams scored
41%
53%
29%
Clean sheets
32%
41%
24%
Failed to score
35%
18%
53%
xG
1.32
1.56
1.08
xGA
1.31
1.00
1.61
La Liga 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Alaves
ALA
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
97% 34/35
91% 31/34
94%
–
Over 1.5
74% 26/35
68% 23/34
71%
79%
Over 2.5
51% 18/35
38% 13/34
45%
51%
Over 3.5
26% 9/35
18% 6/34
22%
26%
Over 4.5
11% 4/35
6% 2/34
9%
–
Under 2.5
49% 17/35
62% 21/34
55%
49%
Both teams score
BTTS
66% 23/35
41% 14/34
53%
57%
BTTS & win
20% 7/35
6% 2/34
13%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
49% 17/35
18% 6/34
33%
–
Alaves
ALA
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
63% 22/35
71% 24/34
67%
–
Over 1.5
26% 9/35
24% 8/34
25%
–
Over 2.5
9% 3/35
6% 2/34
7%
–
BTTS
23% 8/35
12% 4/34
17%
–
% of each club's games · League = La Liga 2025-2026 (345 games, 2.70 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.35 at home
0.82 away
Alaves scored 23 in 17 home games
Rayo Vallecano scored 14 in 17 away games
Alaves
ALA
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
Scored over 0.5
71% 25/35
65% 22/34
Scored over 1.5
34% 12/35
24% 8/34
Scored over 2.5
9% 3/35
15% 5/34
Failed to score
29% 10/35
35% 12/34
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.35 at home
1.59 away
Alaves conceded 23 in 17 home games
Rayo Vallecano conceded 27 in 17 away games
Alaves
ALA
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
Conceded over 0.5
91% 32/35
68% 23/34
Conceded over 1.5
40% 14/35
26% 9/34
Conceded over 2.5
20% 7/35
21% 7/34
Clean sheets
9% 3/35
32% 11/34
Streaks
2
Without a win last win 3 games ago
20
Conceded in a row
9
Scored in a row
9
Both teams scored in a row
2
Longest win run this season
3
Unbeaten last loss 4 games ago
3
Scored in a row
3
Longest win run this season
Match Totals
Alaves
ALA
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
League
Corners
Corners won
5.03
5.82
–
Corners conceded
5.16
4.94
–
Match total
10.19
10.76
9.65
Over 8.5
66% 21/32
76% 26/34
–
Over 9.5
56% 18/32
62% 21/34
–
Over 10.5
50% 16/32
59% 20/34
–
Cards
Cards
2.51
2.97
–
Opponent cards
2.17
2.41
–
Match total
4.69
5.38
4.62
Over 3.5
71% 25/35
79% 27/34
–
Over 4.5
51% 18/35
62% 21/34
–
Shots
Shots
12.09
13.71
–
Opponent shots
12.43
11.97
–
Match total
24.51
25.68
24.67
Shots on target
On target
4.18
4.62
–
Opponent on target
4.06
4.03
–
Match total
8.24
8.65
–
Fouls
Fouls
14.77
13.06
–
Opponent fouls
13.49
11.32
–
Match total
28.26
24.38
–
Possession
All games
49%
54%
–
Home games
51%
55%
–
Away games
48%
52%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = La Liga 2025-2026 (345 games) · La Liga 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Alaves
Scored · 41
20%
7%
15%
15%
19%
24%
Conceded · 54
11%
17%
7%
20%
17%
28%
Rayo Vallecano
Scored · 35
6%
12%
31%
11%
17%
23%
Conceded · 41
12%
15%
15%
14%
17%
27%
38%
Scored first
42%
24%
Goals after 75'
23%
Scored first: Alaves 13 of 34, Rayo Vallecano 13 of 31 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · La Liga 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
20%54%26%
Leading 7
Level 19
Trailing 9
1.14
points per game
At half-time
57%
4 of 7
Led at HT, won
33%
3 of 9
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 172nd 24
At half-time
26%38%35%
Leading 9
Level 13
Trailing 12
1.18
points per game
At half-time
67%
6 of 9
Led at HT, won
25%
3 of 12
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 172nd 18
16
Points won from losing positions in 26 · 18 games
6
17
Points dropped from winning positions in 16 · 14 games
9
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · La Liga 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Latest Games
