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18 Oct 2026-4:00 pm
Stats Prediction
Result probability
69%
21%
10%
AC Milan 69%
Draw 21%
Atalanta 10%
1.9 – 0.6
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-0
16% chance
Most Likely Score
44%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
37%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
AC Milan · all games
Atalanta · all games
2.00
Goals scored per game
1.00
0.80
Goals conceded per game
1.40
1.35x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
0.70x
0.56x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.95x
Average: 1.48 home goals and 1.42 away goals per game in Serie A 2026-2027
Based on 5 + 5 Serie A 2026-2027 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
3-4-2-1
vs Lecce (H) 3-0 · 20 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-3-3
vs Juventus (A) 2-0 · 20 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings
40%
20%
40%
AC Milan wins 4
Draws 2
Atalanta wins 4
Goals 14 (1.40 per game)
Goals 13 (1.30 per game)
90%
9
of 10
Over 1.5 Goals
40%
4
of 10
Over 2.5 Goals
20%
2
of 10
Over 3.5 Goals
50%
5
of 10
Both Teams Scored
30%
3
of 10
AC Milan Clean Sheets
20%
2
of 10
Atalanta Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 10 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
W
D
D
W
W
2.20
3-2-0
PPG Overall
3.00
2-0-0
PPG at Home
1.67
1-2-0
PPG Away
Venue form: AC Milan at home 3.00 vs Atalanta away 0.00 points per game
Rest & Schedule
28
days rest
AC Milan 3-0 Lecce
0 games in 14 days · 1 in 30 days
28
days rest
Juventus 2-0 Atalanta
0 games in 14 days · 1 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
5
2
3
Win %
60%
100%
33%
Goals per game
2.80
2.50
3.00
Scored
2.00
2.50
1.67
Conceded
0.80
0.00
1.33
Both teams scored
60%
0%
100%
Clean sheets
40%
100%
0%
Failed to score
0%
0%
0%
xG
1.58
2.20
1.17
xGA
1.18
0.51
1.63
Overall
Home
Away
Played
5
3
2
Win %
40%
67%
0%
Goals per game
2.40
2.33
2.50
Scored
1.00
1.33
0.50
Conceded
1.40
1.00
2.00
Both teams scored
60%
67%
50%
Clean sheets
20%
33%
0%
Failed to score
20%
0%
50%
xG
0.81
0.92
0.65
xGA
1.87
1.69
2.14
Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
AC Milan
AC
Atalanta
ATA
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
100% 5/5
100% 5/5
100%
–
Over 1.5
100% 5/5
80% 4/5
90%
82%
Over 2.5
60% 3/5
60% 3/5
60%
54%
Over 3.5
20% 1/5
0% 0/5
10%
28%
Over 4.5
0% 0/5
0% 0/5
0%
–
Under 2.5
40% 2/5
40% 2/5
40%
46%
Both teams score
BTTS
60% 3/5
60% 3/5
60%
58%
BTTS & win
20% 1/5
20% 1/5
20%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
40% 2/5
60% 3/5
50%
–
AC Milan
AC
Atalanta
ATA
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
40% 2/5
60% 3/5
50%
–
Over 1.5
20% 1/5
20% 1/5
20%
–
Over 2.5
0% 0/5
0% 0/5
0%
–
BTTS
0% 0/5
20% 1/5
10%
–
% of each club's games · League = Serie A 2026-2027 (50 games, 2.90 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
2.50 at home
0.50 away
AC Milan scored 5 in 2 home games
Atalanta scored 1 in 2 away games
AC Milan
AC
Atalanta
ATA
Scored over 0.5
100% 5/5
80% 4/5
Scored over 1.5
80% 4/5
20% 1/5
Scored over 2.5
20% 1/5
0% 0/5
Failed to score
0% 0/5
20% 1/5
Goals conceded per game at this venue
2.00 away
AC Milan conceded 0 in 2 home games
Atalanta conceded 4 in 2 away games
AC Milan
AC
Atalanta
ATA
Conceded over 0.5
60% 3/5
80% 4/5
Conceded over 1.5
20% 1/5
60% 3/5
Conceded over 2.5
0% 0/5
0% 0/5
Clean sheets
40% 2/5
20% 1/5
Streaks
Match Totals
AC Milan
AC
Atalanta
ATA
League
Corners
Corners won
2.80
2.80
–
Corners conceded
3.40
5.20
–
Match total
6.20
8.00
9.50
Over 8.5
0% 0/5
40% 2/5
–
Over 9.5
0% 0/5
20% 1/5
–
Over 10.5
0% 0/5
20% 1/5
–
Cards
Cards
1.60
1.00
–
Opponent cards
1.40
0.20
–
Match total
3.00
1.20
3.26
Over 3.5
60% 3/5
0% 0/5
–
Over 4.5
20% 1/5
0% 0/5
–
Shots
Shots
12.80
11.80
–
Opponent shots
9.00
19.20
–
Match total
21.80
31.00
29.14
Shots on target
On target
4.20
3.40
–
Opponent on target
3.40
6.20
–
Match total
7.60
9.60
–
Fouls
Fouls
10.20
9.60
–
Opponent fouls
12.20
10.00
–
Match total
22.40
19.60
–
Offsides
Offsides
1.40
1.00
–
Opponent offsides
2.80
3.00
–
Match total
4.20
4.00
–
Possession
All games
61%
48%
–
Home games
64%
53%
–
Away games
59%
41%
–
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Serie A 2026-2027 (50 games) · Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
AC Milan
Scored · 10
10%
0%
0%
0%
80%
10%
Conceded · 4
25%
0%
25%
0%
0%
50%
Atalanta
Scored · 5
20%
0%
20%
20%
20%
20%
Conceded · 7
0%
29%
0%
14%
14%
43%
80%
Scored first
60%
10%
Goals after 75'
20%
Scored first: AC Milan 4 of 5, Atalanta 3 of 5 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
20%60%20%
Leading 1
Level 3
Trailing 1
1.20
points per game
At half-time
100%
1 of 1
Led at HT, won
100%
1 of 1
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 12nd 9
At half-time
20%60%20%
Leading 1
Level 3
Trailing 1
1.20
points per game
At half-time
100%
1 of 1
Led at HT, won
0%
0 of 1
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 22nd 3
1
Points won from losing positions in 1 · 3 games
0
2
Points dropped from winning positions in 4 · 3 games
3
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Latest Games
