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25 Oct 2026-11:30 am
Stats Prediction
Result probability
94%
Inter 94%
Draw 3%
Fiorentina 3%
6.5 – 1.7
goals per side
Expected Goals
6-1
5% chance
Most Likely Score
99%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
81%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
Inter · at home
Fiorentina · all games
4.00
Goals scored per game
1.20
2.00
Goals conceded per game
2.40
2.70x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
0.85x
1.41x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
1.62x
Average: 1.48 home goals and 1.42 away goals per game in Serie A 2026-2027
Based on 5 + 5 Serie A 2026-2027 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
3-1-4-2
vs AS Roma (A) 2-2 · 19 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-3-3
vs Napoli (H) 1-1 · 20 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings
60%
20%
20%
Inter wins 6
Draws 2
Fiorentina wins 2
Goals 19 (1.90 per game)
Goals 11 (1.10 per game)
80%
8
of 10
Over 1.5 Goals
60%
6
of 10
Over 2.5 Goals
30%
3
of 10
Over 3.5 Goals
50%
5
of 10
Both Teams Scored
30%
3
of 10
Inter Clean Sheets
20%
2
of 10
Fiorentina Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 10 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
D
W
W
W
W
2.60
4-1-0
PPG Overall
3.00
3-0-0
PPG at Home
2.00
1-1-0
PPG Away
Venue form: Inter at home +100% on points per game vs Fiorentina away (3.00 vs 1.50)
Rest & Schedule
36
days rest
AS Roma 2-2 Inter
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
35
days rest
Fiorentina 1-1 Napoli
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
5
3
2
Win %
80%
100%
50%
Goals per game
4.60
6.00
2.50
Scored
3.00
4.00
1.50
Conceded
1.60
2.00
1.00
Both teams scored
80%
100%
50%
Clean sheets
20%
0%
50%
Failed to score
0%
0%
0%
xG
2.90
2.65
3.27
xGA
1.34
1.53
1.07
Overall
Home
Away
Played
5
3
2
Win %
20%
0%
50%
Goals per game
3.60
2.67
5.00
Scored
1.20
0.67
2.00
Conceded
2.40
2.00
3.00
Both teams scored
60%
67%
50%
Clean sheets
0%
0%
0%
Failed to score
40%
33%
50%
xG
1.72
1.65
1.83
xGA
1.33
1.03
1.78
Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Inter
INT
Fiorentina
FIO
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
100% 5/5
100% 5/5
100%
–
Over 1.5
80% 4/5
100% 5/5
90%
82%
Over 2.5
80% 4/5
80% 4/5
80%
54%
Over 3.5
80% 4/5
40% 2/5
60%
28%
Over 4.5
60% 3/5
20% 1/5
40%
–
Under 2.5
20% 1/5
20% 1/5
20%
46%
Both teams score
BTTS
80% 4/5
60% 3/5
70%
58%
BTTS & win
60% 3/5
20% 1/5
40%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
80% 4/5
40% 2/5
60%
–
Inter
INT
Fiorentina
FIO
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
80% 4/5
80% 4/5
80%
–
Over 1.5
60% 3/5
40% 2/5
50%
–
Over 2.5
20% 1/5
20% 1/5
20%
–
BTTS
40% 2/5
20% 1/5
30%
–
% of each club's games · League = Serie A 2026-2027 (50 games, 2.90 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
4.00 at home
2.00 away
Inter scored 12 in 3 home games
Fiorentina scored 4 in 2 away games
Inter
INT
Fiorentina
FIO
Scored over 0.5
100% 5/5
60% 3/5
Scored over 1.5
80% 4/5
20% 1/5
Scored over 2.5
60% 3/5
20% 1/5
Failed to score
0% 0/5
40% 2/5
Goals conceded per game at this venue
2.00 at home
3.00 away
Inter conceded 6 in 3 home games
Fiorentina conceded 6 in 2 away games
Inter
INT
Fiorentina
FIO
Conceded over 0.5
80% 4/5
100% 5/5
Conceded over 1.5
60% 3/5
80% 4/5
Conceded over 2.5
20% 1/5
40% 2/5
Clean sheets
20% 1/5
0% 0/5
Streaks
5
Unbeaten all 5 this season
5
Scored all 5 this season
3
Conceded in a row
3
Both teams scored in a row
4
Longest win run this season
2
Unbeaten last loss 3 games ago
5
Conceded all 5 this season
3
Scored in a row
3
Both teams scored in a row
Match Totals
Inter
INT
Fiorentina
FIO
League
Corners
Corners won
6.20
4.40
–
Corners conceded
4.20
3.80
–
Match total
10.40
8.20
9.50
Over 8.5
60% 3/5
40% 2/5
–
Over 9.5
60% 3/5
20% 1/5
–
Over 10.5
60% 3/5
20% 1/5
–
Cards
Cards
1.60
1.80
–
Opponent cards
2.00
1.40
–
Match total
3.60
3.20
3.26
Over 3.5
40% 2/5
40% 2/5
–
Over 4.5
20% 1/5
20% 1/5
–
Shots
Shots
23.20
16.80
–
Opponent shots
11.40
11.80
–
Match total
34.60
28.60
29.14
Shots on target
On target
7.40
5.60
–
Opponent on target
3.80
5.20
–
Match total
11.20
10.80
–
Fouls
Fouls
6.60
11.00
–
Opponent fouls
9.80
13.00
–
Match total
16.40
24.00
–
Offsides
Offsides
1.60
1.00
–
Opponent offsides
3.60
1.20
–
Match total
5.20
2.20
–
Possession
All games
63%
43%
–
Home games
66%
47%
–
Away games
58%
38%
–
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Serie A 2026-2027 (50 games) · Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Inter
Scored · 15
13%
7%
7%
33%
13%
27%
Conceded · 8
25%
25%
13%
25%
0%
12%
Fiorentina
Scored · 6
0%
33%
0%
33%
17%
17%
Conceded · 12
0%
33%
8%
17%
17%
25%
40%
Scored first
20%
27%
Goals after 75'
17%
Scored first: Inter 2 of 5, Fiorentina 1 of 5 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
20%60%20%
Leading 1
Level 3
Trailing 1
1.20
points per game
At half-time
100%
1 of 1
Led at HT, won
100%
1 of 1
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 42nd 11
At half-time
20%20%60%
Leading 1
Level 1
Trailing 3
0.80
points per game
At half-time
100%
1 of 1
Led at HT, won
33%
1 of 3
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 22nd 4
7
Points won from losing positions in 3 · 5 games
4
0
Points dropped from winning positions in 4 · 2 games
3
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
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