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10 Jan 2027-5:30 pm
days
hours
minutes
seconds
Stats Prediction
Result probability
65%
18%
17%
AS Roma 65%
Draw 18%
AC Milan 17%
2.4 – 1.2
goals per side
Expected Goals
2-1
9% chance
Most Likely Score
69%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
63%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
AS Roma · at home
AC Milan · away
2.67
Goals scored per game
1.67
1.00
Goals conceded per game
1.33
1.80x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.17x
0.70x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.90x
Average: 1.48 home goals and 1.42 away goals per game in Serie A 2026-2027
Based on 5 + 5 Serie A 2026-2027 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
3-4-2-1
vs Inter (H) 2-2 · 19 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Last game lineup
3-4-2-1
vs Lecce (H) 3-0 · 20 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings
10%
40%
50%
AS Roma wins 1
Draws 4
AC Milan wins 5
Goals 12 (1.20 per game)
Goals 17 (1.70 per game)
90%
9
of 10
Over 1.5 Goals
60%
6
of 10
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
4
of 10
Over 3.5 Goals
90%
9
of 10
Both Teams Scored
0%
0
of 10
AS Roma Clean Sheets
10%
1
of 10
AC Milan Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 10 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
D
W
W
W
W
2.60
4-1-0
PPG Overall
2.33
2-1-0
PPG at Home
3.00
2-0-0
PPG Away
Venue form: AS Roma at home +40% on points per game vs AC Milan away (2.33 vs 1.67)
Rest & Schedule
113
days rest
AS Roma 2-2 Inter
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
112
days rest
AC Milan 3-0 Lecce
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
5
3
2
Win %
80%
67%
100%
Goals per game
3.40
3.67
3.00
Scored
2.80
2.67
3.00
Conceded
0.60
1.00
0.00
Both teams scored
40%
67%
0%
Clean sheets
60%
33%
100%
Failed to score
0%
0%
0%
xG
2.56
2.57
2.56
xGA
1.11
1.30
0.83
Overall
Home
Away
Played
5
2
3
Win %
60%
100%
33%
Goals per game
2.80
2.50
3.00
Scored
2.00
2.50
1.67
Conceded
0.80
0.00
1.33
Both teams scored
60%
0%
100%
Clean sheets
40%
100%
0%
Failed to score
0%
0%
0%
xG
1.58
2.20
1.17
xGA
1.18
0.51
1.63
Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
AS Roma
AS
AC Milan
AC
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
100% 5/5
100% 5/5
100%
–
Over 1.5
100% 5/5
100% 5/5
100%
82%
Over 2.5
80% 4/5
60% 3/5
70%
54%
Over 3.5
60% 3/5
20% 1/5
40%
28%
Over 4.5
0% 0/5
0% 0/5
0%
–
Under 2.5
20% 1/5
40% 2/5
30%
46%
Both teams score
BTTS
40% 2/5
60% 3/5
50%
58%
BTTS & win
20% 1/5
20% 1/5
20%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
40% 2/5
40% 2/5
40%
–
AS Roma
AS
AC Milan
AC
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
80% 4/5
40% 2/5
60%
–
Over 1.5
40% 2/5
20% 1/5
30%
–
Over 2.5
20% 1/5
0% 0/5
10%
–
BTTS
0% 0/5
0% 0/5
0%
–
% of each club's games · League = Serie A 2026-2027 (50 games, 2.90 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
2.67 at home
1.67 away
AS Roma scored 8 in 3 home games
AC Milan scored 5 in 3 away games
AS Roma
AS
AC Milan
AC
Scored over 0.5
100% 5/5
100% 5/5
Scored over 1.5
100% 5/5
80% 4/5
Scored over 2.5
40% 2/5
20% 1/5
Failed to score
0% 0/5
0% 0/5
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.00 at home
1.33 away
AS Roma conceded 3 in 3 home games
AC Milan conceded 4 in 3 away games
AS Roma
AS
AC Milan
AC
Conceded over 0.5
40% 2/5
60% 3/5
Conceded over 1.5
20% 1/5
20% 1/5
Conceded over 2.5
0% 0/5
0% 0/5
Clean sheets
60% 3/5
40% 2/5
Streaks
Match Totals
AS Roma
AS
AC Milan
AC
League
Corners
Corners won
5.80
2.80
–
Corners conceded
1.80
3.40
–
Match total
7.60
6.20
9.50
Over 8.5
40% 2/5
0% 0/5
–
Over 9.5
20% 1/5
0% 0/5
–
Over 10.5
20% 1/5
0% 0/5
–
Cards
Cards
1.60
1.60
–
Opponent cards
1.60
1.40
–
Match total
3.20
3.00
3.26
Over 3.5
40% 2/5
60% 3/5
–
Over 4.5
20% 1/5
20% 1/5
–
Shots
Shots
20.60
12.80
–
Opponent shots
9.20
9.00
–
Match total
29.80
21.80
29.14
Shots on target
On target
7.00
4.20
–
Opponent on target
3.40
3.40
–
Match total
10.40
7.60
–
Fouls
Fouls
13.00
10.20
–
Opponent fouls
8.80
12.20
–
Match total
21.80
22.40
–
Offsides
Offsides
3.80
1.40
–
Opponent offsides
1.60
2.80
–
Match total
5.40
4.20
–
Possession
All games
58%
61%
–
Home games
59%
64%
–
Away games
56%
59%
–
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Serie A 2026-2027 (50 games) · Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
AS Roma
Scored · 14
14%
22%
14%
14%
7%
29%
Conceded · 3
0%
0%
0%
67%
0%
33%
AC Milan
Scored · 10
10%
0%
0%
0%
80%
10%
Conceded · 4
25%
0%
25%
0%
0%
50%
80%
Scored first
80%
29%
Goals after 75'
10%
Scored first: AS Roma 4 of 5, AC Milan 4 of 5 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
80%20%
Leading 4
Level 1
Trailing 0
2.60
points per game
At half-time
75%
3 of 4
Led at HT, won
–
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 72nd 7
At half-time
20%60%20%
Leading 1
Level 3
Trailing 1
1.20
points per game
At half-time
100%
1 of 1
Led at HT, won
100%
1 of 1
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 12nd 9
3
Points won from losing positions in 1 · 1 games
1
2
Points dropped from winning positions in 5 · 4 games
2
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Latest Games
