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6 Dec 2026-4:00 pm
days
hours
minutes
seconds
Stats Prediction
Result probability
35%
29%
36%
Athletic Club 35%
Draw 29%
Real Madrid 36%
1.1 – 1.1
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-1
13% chance
Most Likely Score
38%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
45%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
BIL · at home
Real Madrid · away
1.25
Goals scored per game
1.50
1.00
Goals conceded per game
1.50
0.73x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.13x
0.75x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.88x
Average: 1.71 home goals and 1.33 away goals per game in La Liga 2026-2027
Based on 6 + 7 La Liga 2026-2027 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Alaves (H) 0-0 · 19 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Atletico Madrid (A) 2-1 · 20 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 7 meetings
14%
14%
71%
Athletic Club wins 1
Draws 1
Real Madrid wins 5
Goals 4 (0.57 per game)
Goals 11 (1.57 per game)
71%
5
of 7
Over 1.5 Goals
43%
3
of 7
Over 2.5 Goals
0%
0
of 7
Over 3.5 Goals
43%
3
of 7
Both Teams Scored
0%
0
of 7
Athletic Club Clean Sheets
57%
4
of 7
Real Madrid Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 7 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
D
D
W
W
L
D
D
W
W
L
L
1.33
2-2-2
PPG Overall
1.25
1-2-1
PPG at Home
1.50
1-0-1
PPG Away
L
W
W
L
W
L
W
W
L
W
W
W
2.14
5-0-2
PPG Overall
3.00
3-0-0
PPG at Home
1.50
2-0-2
PPG Away
Venue form: Real Madrid away +20% on points per game vs Athletic Club at home (1.50 vs 1.25)
Rest & Schedule
78
days rest
Athletic Club 0-0 Alaves
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
77
days rest
Atletico Madrid 2-1 Real Madrid
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
6
4
2
Win %
33%
25%
50%
Goals per game
2.17
2.25
2.00
Scored
1.17
1.25
1.00
Conceded
1.00
1.00
1.00
Both teams scored
33%
50%
0%
Clean sheets
50%
50%
50%
Failed to score
33%
25%
50%
xG
1.62
1.67
1.52
xGA
1.22
0.58
2.49
Overall
Home
Away
Played
7
3
4
Win %
71%
100%
50%
Goals per game
3.71
4.67
3.00
Scored
2.57
4.00
1.50
Conceded
1.14
0.67
1.50
Both teams scored
71%
67%
75%
Clean sheets
14%
33%
0%
Failed to score
14%
0%
25%
xG
2.64
2.79
2.52
xGA
1.09
0.83
1.28
La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Athletic Club
BIL
Real Madrid
REA
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
83% 5/6
100% 7/7
92%
–
Over 1.5
83% 5/6
86% 6/7
85%
77%
Over 2.5
33% 2/6
86% 6/7
60%
57%
Over 3.5
17% 1/6
57% 4/7
37%
39%
Over 4.5
0% 0/6
43% 3/7
21%
–
Under 2.5
67% 4/6
14% 1/7
40%
43%
Both teams score
BTTS
33% 2/6
71% 5/7
52%
58%
BTTS & win
0% 0/6
57% 4/7
29%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
17% 1/6
71% 5/7
44%
–
Athletic Club
BIL
Real Madrid
REA
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
50% 3/6
71% 5/7
61%
–
Over 1.5
17% 1/6
71% 5/7
44%
–
Over 2.5
0% 0/6
29% 2/7
14%
–
BTTS
0% 0/6
29% 2/7
14%
–
% of each club's games · League = La Liga 2026-2027 (69 games, 3.04 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.25 at home
1.50 away
Athletic Club scored 5 in 4 home games
Real Madrid scored 6 in 4 away games
Athletic Club
BIL
Real Madrid
REA
Scored over 0.5
67% 4/6
86% 6/7
Scored over 1.5
33% 2/6
71% 5/7
Scored over 2.5
17% 1/6
57% 4/7
Failed to score
33% 2/6
14% 1/7
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.00 at home
1.50 away
Athletic Club conceded 4 in 4 home games
Real Madrid conceded 6 in 4 away games
Athletic Club
BIL
Real Madrid
REA
Conceded over 0.5
50% 3/6
86% 6/7
Conceded over 1.5
33% 2/6
29% 2/7
Conceded over 2.5
17% 1/6
0% 0/7
Clean sheets
50% 3/6
14% 1/7
Streaks
4
Unbeaten last loss 5 games ago
2
Longest win run this season
1
Lost last game
4
Conceded in a row
3
Scored in a row
3
Both teams scored in a row
3
Longest win run this season
Match Totals
Athletic Club
BIL
Real Madrid
REA
League
Corners
Corners won
6.17
6.86
–
Corners conceded
4.83
4.14
–
Match total
11.00
11.00
9.65
Over 8.5
67% 4/6
57% 4/7
–
Over 9.5
67% 4/6
57% 4/7
–
Over 10.5
67% 4/6
57% 4/7
–
Cards
Cards
2.17
1.86
–
Opponent cards
1.67
2.86
–
Match total
3.83
4.71
4.42
Over 3.5
33% 2/6
71% 5/7
–
Over 4.5
33% 2/6
71% 5/7
–
Shots
Shots
15.67
18.86
–
Opponent shots
9.50
12.71
–
Match total
25.17
31.57
26.46
Shots on target
On target
4.67
7.57
–
Opponent on target
3.67
4.43
–
Match total
8.33
12.00
–
Fouls
Fouls
11.17
8.43
–
Opponent fouls
11.33
14.29
–
Match total
22.50
22.71
–
Offsides
Offsides
1.50
1.86
–
Opponent offsides
3.67
1.14
–
Match total
5.17
3.00
–
Possession
All games
53%
52%
–
Home games
60%
54%
–
Away games
38%
51%
–
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = La Liga 2026-2027 (69 games) · La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Athletic Club
Scored · 7
0%
29%
0%
29%
14%
28%
Conceded · 6
17%
0%
17%
50%
0%
16%
Real Madrid
Scored · 18
11%
28%
17%
6%
5%
33%
Conceded · 8
0%
13%
13%
37%
12%
25%
40%
Scored first
71%
29%
Goals after 75'
33%
Scored first: Athletic Club 2 of 5, Real Madrid 5 of 7 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
17%50%33%
Leading 1
Level 3
Trailing 2
1.00
points per game
At half-time
100%
1 of 1
Led at HT, won
0%
0 of 2
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 22nd 5
At half-time
43%57%
Leading 3
Level 4
Trailing 0
1.86
points per game
At half-time
100%
3 of 3
Led at HT, won
–
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 102nd 8
1
Points won from losing positions in 3 · 2 games
0
0
Points dropped from winning positions in 2 · 5 games
0
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
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