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7 Mar 2027-4:00 pm
days
hours
minutes
seconds
Stats Prediction
Result probability
31%
20%
49%
Villarreal 31%
Draw 20%
Real Madrid 49%
1.8 – 2.3
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-2
8% chance
Most Likely Score
76%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
74%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
VIL · at home
Real Madrid · away
2.00
Goals scored per game
1.50
2.00
Goals conceded per game
1.50
1.17x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.13x
1.50x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.88x
Average: 1.71 home goals and 1.33 away goals per game in La Liga 2026-2027
Based on 7 + 7 La Liga 2026-2027 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Levante (H) 3-1 · 20 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Atletico Madrid (A) 2-1 · 20 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 8 meetings
25%
25%
50%
Villarreal wins 2
Draws 2
Real Madrid wins 4
Goals 7 (0.88 per game)
Goals 12 (1.50 per game)
75%
6
of 8
Over 1.5 Goals
50%
4
of 8
Over 2.5 Goals
25%
2
of 8
Over 3.5 Goals
50%
4
of 8
Both Teams Scored
25%
2
of 8
Villarreal Clean Sheets
50%
4
of 8
Real Madrid Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 8 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
W
W
L
L
L
W
W
L
L
L
D
D
1.14
2-2-3
PPG Overall
1.00
1-0-2
PPG at Home
1.25
1-2-1
PPG Away
L
W
W
L
W
L
W
W
L
W
W
W
2.14
5-0-2
PPG Overall
3.00
3-0-0
PPG at Home
1.50
2-0-2
PPG Away
Venue form: Real Madrid away +50% on points per game vs Villarreal at home (1.50 vs 1.00)
Rest & Schedule
168
days rest
Villarreal 3-1 Levante
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
168
days rest
Atletico Madrid 2-1 Real Madrid
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
7
3
4
Win %
29%
33%
25%
Goals per game
3.57
4.00
3.25
Scored
1.86
2.00
1.75
Conceded
1.71
2.00
1.50
Both teams scored
86%
100%
75%
Clean sheets
0%
0%
0%
Failed to score
14%
0%
25%
xG
2.33
2.43
2.25
xGA
1.26
1.59
1.02
Overall
Home
Away
Played
7
3
4
Win %
71%
100%
50%
Goals per game
3.71
4.67
3.00
Scored
2.57
4.00
1.50
Conceded
1.14
0.67
1.50
Both teams scored
71%
67%
75%
Clean sheets
14%
33%
0%
Failed to score
14%
0%
25%
xG
2.64
2.79
2.52
xGA
1.09
0.83
1.28
La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Villarreal
VIL
Real Madrid
REA
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
100% 7/7
100% 7/7
100%
–
Over 1.5
86% 6/7
86% 6/7
86%
77%
Over 2.5
86% 6/7
86% 6/7
86%
57%
Over 3.5
71% 5/7
57% 4/7
64%
39%
Over 4.5
14% 1/7
43% 3/7
29%
–
Under 2.5
14% 1/7
14% 1/7
14%
43%
Both teams score
BTTS
86% 6/7
71% 5/7
79%
58%
BTTS & win
29% 2/7
57% 4/7
43%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
86% 6/7
71% 5/7
79%
–
Villarreal
VIL
Real Madrid
REA
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
86% 6/7
71% 5/7
79%
–
Over 1.5
71% 5/7
71% 5/7
71%
–
Over 2.5
43% 3/7
29% 2/7
36%
–
BTTS
71% 5/7
29% 2/7
50%
–
% of each club's games · League = La Liga 2026-2027 (69 games, 3.04 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
2.00 at home
1.50 away
Villarreal scored 6 in 3 home games
Real Madrid scored 6 in 4 away games
Villarreal
VIL
Real Madrid
REA
Scored over 0.5
86% 6/7
86% 6/7
Scored over 1.5
71% 5/7
71% 5/7
Scored over 2.5
29% 2/7
57% 4/7
Failed to score
14% 1/7
14% 1/7
Goals conceded per game at this venue
2.00 at home
1.50 away
Villarreal conceded 6 in 3 home games
Real Madrid conceded 6 in 4 away games
Villarreal
VIL
Real Madrid
REA
Conceded over 0.5
100% 7/7
86% 6/7
Conceded over 1.5
57% 4/7
29% 2/7
Conceded over 2.5
14% 1/7
0% 0/7
Clean sheets
0% 0/7
14% 1/7
Streaks
2
Won in a row
7
Conceded all 7 this season
4
Scored in a row
4
Both teams scored in a row
4
Over 2.5 goals in a row
1
Lost last game
4
Conceded in a row
3
Scored in a row
3
Both teams scored in a row
3
Longest win run this season
Match Totals
Villarreal
VIL
Real Madrid
REA
League
Corners
Corners won
7.29
6.86
–
Corners conceded
3.71
4.14
–
Match total
11.00
11.00
9.65
Over 8.5
57% 4/7
57% 4/7
–
Over 9.5
57% 4/7
57% 4/7
–
Over 10.5
57% 4/7
57% 4/7
–
Cards
Cards
1.71
1.86
–
Opponent cards
2.43
2.86
–
Match total
4.14
4.71
4.42
Over 3.5
71% 5/7
71% 5/7
–
Over 4.5
43% 3/7
71% 5/7
–
Shots
Shots
16.00
18.86
–
Opponent shots
12.86
12.71
–
Match total
28.86
31.57
26.46
Shots on target
On target
6.57
7.57
–
Opponent on target
3.71
4.43
–
Match total
10.29
12.00
–
Fouls
Fouls
10.71
8.43
–
Opponent fouls
12.86
14.29
–
Match total
23.57
22.71
–
Offsides
Offsides
2.71
1.86
–
Opponent offsides
1.86
1.14
–
Match total
4.57
3.00
–
Possession
All games
62%
52%
–
Home games
62%
54%
–
Away games
62%
51%
–
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = La Liga 2026-2027 (69 games) · La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Villarreal
Scored · 13
0%
15%
38%
8%
8%
31%
Conceded · 12
9%
8%
50%
8%
0%
25%
Real Madrid
Scored · 18
11%
28%
17%
6%
5%
33%
Conceded · 8
0%
13%
13%
37%
12%
25%
43%
Scored first
71%
31%
Goals after 75'
33%
Scored first: Villarreal 3 of 7, Real Madrid 5 of 7 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
14%57%29%
Leading 1
Level 4
Trailing 2
1.00
points per game
At half-time
100%
1 of 1
Led at HT, won
0%
0 of 2
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 72nd 6
At half-time
43%57%
Leading 3
Level 4
Trailing 0
1.86
points per game
At half-time
100%
3 of 3
Led at HT, won
–
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 102nd 8
5
Points won from losing positions in 6 · 2 games
0
8
Points dropped from winning positions in 5 · 5 games
0
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
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