|
16 May 2027-3:00 pm
days
hours
minutes
seconds
Stats Prediction
Result probability
93%
Atletico Madrid 93%
Draw 5%
Rayo Vallecano 2%
4.4 – 0.7
goals per side
Expected Goals
4-0
10% chance
Most Likely Score
88%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
Atletico Madrid · at home
RAY · away
2.50
Goals scored per game
1.25
0.75
Goals conceded per game
3.00
1.46x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
0.94x
0.56x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
1.75x
Average: 1.71 home goals and 1.33 away goals per game in La Liga 2026-2027
Based on 7 + 7 La Liga 2026-2027 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-4-2
vs Real Madrid (H) 2-1 · 20 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-3-3
vs Osasuna (A) 1-1 · 19 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 8 meetings
63%
25%
13%
Atletico Madrid wins 5
Draws 2
Rayo Vallecano wins 1
Goals 13 (1.63 per game)
Goals 8 (1.00 per game)
88%
7
of 8
Over 1.5 Goals
50%
4
of 8
Over 2.5 Goals
13%
1
of 8
Over 3.5 Goals
50%
4
of 8
Both Teams Scored
38%
3
of 8
Atletico Madrid Clean Sheets
13%
1
of 8
Rayo Vallecano Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 8 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
W
W
W
L
W
W
W
W
L
W
D
W
2.29
5-1-1
PPG Overall
2.50
3-1-0
PPG at Home
2.00
2-0-1
PPG Away
D
W
L
W
L
D
W
L
W
L
D
L
1.14
2-2-3
PPG Overall
2.33
2-1-0
PPG at Home
0.25
0-1-3
PPG Away
Venue form: Atletico Madrid at home +900% on points per game vs Rayo Vallecano away (2.50 vs 0.25)
Rest & Schedule
238
days rest
Atletico Madrid 2-1 Real Madrid
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
239
days rest
Osasuna 1-1 Rayo Vallecano
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
7
4
3
Win %
71%
75%
67%
Goals per game
3.29
3.25
3.33
Scored
2.29
2.50
2.00
Conceded
1.00
0.75
1.33
Both teams scored
43%
50%
33%
Clean sheets
43%
50%
33%
Failed to score
14%
0%
33%
xG
1.72
2.01
1.33
xGA
1.02
1.13
0.86
Overall
Home
Away
Played
7
3
4
Win %
29%
67%
0%
Goals per game
3.86
3.33
4.25
Scored
1.57
2.00
1.25
Conceded
2.29
1.33
3.00
Both teams scored
100%
100%
100%
Clean sheets
0%
0%
0%
Failed to score
0%
0%
0%
xG
1.27
1.18
1.33
xGA
1.76
1.32
2.10
La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Atletico Madrid
ATL
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
100% 7/7
100% 7/7
100%
–
Over 1.5
100% 7/7
100% 7/7
100%
77%
Over 2.5
86% 6/7
71% 5/7
79%
57%
Over 3.5
43% 3/7
43% 3/7
43%
39%
Over 4.5
0% 0/7
43% 3/7
21%
–
Under 2.5
14% 1/7
29% 2/7
21%
43%
Both teams score
BTTS
43% 3/7
100% 7/7
71%
58%
BTTS & win
29% 2/7
29% 2/7
29%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
43% 3/7
71% 5/7
57%
–
Atletico Madrid
ATL
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
29% 2/7
86% 6/7
57%
–
Over 1.5
14% 1/7
57% 4/7
36%
–
Over 2.5
14% 1/7
43% 3/7
29%
–
BTTS
0% 0/7
29% 2/7
14%
–
% of each club's games · League = La Liga 2026-2027 (69 games, 3.04 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
2.50 at home
1.25 away
Atletico Madrid scored 10 in 4 home games
Rayo Vallecano scored 5 in 4 away games
Atletico Madrid
ATL
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
Scored over 0.5
86% 6/7
100% 7/7
Scored over 1.5
86% 6/7
43% 3/7
Scored over 2.5
43% 3/7
14% 1/7
Failed to score
14% 1/7
0% 0/7
Goals conceded per game at this venue
0.75 at home
3.00 away
Atletico Madrid conceded 3 in 4 home games
Rayo Vallecano conceded 12 in 4 away games
Atletico Madrid
ATL
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
Conceded over 0.5
57% 4/7
100% 7/7
Conceded over 1.5
29% 2/7
57% 4/7
Conceded over 2.5
14% 1/7
29% 2/7
Clean sheets
43% 3/7
0% 0/7
Streaks
3
Won in a row
6
Over 2.5 goals in a row
3
Scored in a row
2
Unbeaten last loss 3 games ago
7
Scored all 7 this season
7
Conceded all 7 this season
7
Both teams scored all 7 this season
Match Totals
Atletico Madrid
ATL
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
League
Corners
Corners won
5.00
5.29
–
Corners conceded
3.00
6.14
–
Match total
8.00
11.43
9.65
Over 8.5
29% 2/7
57% 4/7
–
Over 9.5
29% 2/7
57% 4/7
–
Over 10.5
29% 2/7
57% 4/7
–
Cards
Cards
1.86
2.71
–
Opponent cards
2.00
2.00
–
Match total
3.86
4.71
4.42
Over 3.5
57% 4/7
57% 4/7
–
Over 4.5
43% 3/7
57% 4/7
–
Shots
Shots
17.00
13.43
–
Opponent shots
9.71
16.57
–
Match total
26.71
30.00
26.46
Shots on target
On target
6.43
4.57
–
Opponent on target
3.29
5.57
–
Match total
9.71
10.14
–
Fouls
Fouls
12.29
13.43
–
Opponent fouls
11.86
13.14
–
Match total
24.14
26.57
–
Offsides
Offsides
1.71
1.00
–
Opponent offsides
1.14
1.57
–
Match total
2.86
2.57
–
Possession
All games
57%
49%
–
Home games
59%
51%
–
Away games
55%
47%
–
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = La Liga 2026-2027 (69 games) · La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Atletico Madrid
Scored · 16
6%
13%
6%
25%
13%
37%
Conceded · 7
0%
0%
0%
29%
28%
43%
Rayo Vallecano
Scored · 11
27%
18%
9%
46%
0%
0%
Conceded · 16
13%
31%
6%
19%
6%
25%
86%
Scored first
57%
38%
Goals after 75'
0%
Scored first: Atletico Madrid 6 of 7, Rayo Vallecano 4 of 7 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
29%71%
Leading 2
Level 5
Trailing 0
1.57
points per game
At half-time
100%
2 of 2
Led at HT, won
–
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 42nd 12
At half-time
29%29%43%
Leading 2
Level 2
Trailing 3
1.14
points per game
At half-time
50%
1 of 2
Led at HT, won
33%
1 of 3
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 62nd 5
1
Points won from losing positions in 2 · 5 games
4
2
Points dropped from winning positions in 6 · 5 games
8
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Latest Games
