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30 May 2027-3:00 pm
days
hours
minutes
seconds
Stats Prediction
Result probability
66%
19%
15%
Athletic Club 66%
Draw 19%
Rayo Vallecano 15%
2.2 – 0.9
goals per side
Expected Goals
2-0
11% chance
Most Likely Score
61%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
54%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
BIL · at home
RAY · away
1.25
Goals scored per game
1.25
1.00
Goals conceded per game
3.00
0.73x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
0.94x
0.75x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
1.75x
Average: 1.71 home goals and 1.33 away goals per game in La Liga 2026-2027
Based on 6 + 7 La Liga 2026-2027 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Alaves (H) 0-0 · 19 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-3-3
vs Osasuna (A) 1-1 · 19 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 8 meetings
63%
25%
13%
Athletic Club wins 5
Draws 2
Rayo Vallecano wins 1
Goals 12 (1.50 per game)
Goals 7 (0.88 per game)
63%
5
of 8
Over 1.5 Goals
50%
4
of 8
Over 2.5 Goals
25%
2
of 8
Over 3.5 Goals
63%
5
of 8
Both Teams Scored
38%
3
of 8
Athletic Club Clean Sheets
13%
1
of 8
Rayo Vallecano Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 8 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
D
D
W
W
L
D
D
W
W
L
L
1.33
2-2-2
PPG Overall
1.25
1-2-1
PPG at Home
1.50
1-0-1
PPG Away
D
W
L
W
L
D
W
L
W
L
D
L
1.14
2-2-3
PPG Overall
2.33
2-1-0
PPG at Home
0.25
0-1-3
PPG Away
Venue form: Athletic Club at home +400% on points per game vs Rayo Vallecano away (1.25 vs 0.25)
Rest & Schedule
253
days rest
Athletic Club 0-0 Alaves
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
253
days rest
Osasuna 1-1 Rayo Vallecano
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
6
4
2
Win %
33%
25%
50%
Goals per game
2.17
2.25
2.00
Scored
1.17
1.25
1.00
Conceded
1.00
1.00
1.00
Both teams scored
33%
50%
0%
Clean sheets
50%
50%
50%
Failed to score
33%
25%
50%
xG
1.62
1.67
1.52
xGA
1.22
0.58
2.49
Overall
Home
Away
Played
7
3
4
Win %
29%
67%
0%
Goals per game
3.86
3.33
4.25
Scored
1.57
2.00
1.25
Conceded
2.29
1.33
3.00
Both teams scored
100%
100%
100%
Clean sheets
0%
0%
0%
Failed to score
0%
0%
0%
xG
1.27
1.18
1.33
xGA
1.76
1.32
2.10
La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Athletic Club
BIL
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
83% 5/6
100% 7/7
92%
–
Over 1.5
83% 5/6
100% 7/7
92%
77%
Over 2.5
33% 2/6
71% 5/7
52%
57%
Over 3.5
17% 1/6
43% 3/7
30%
39%
Over 4.5
0% 0/6
43% 3/7
21%
–
Under 2.5
67% 4/6
29% 2/7
48%
43%
Both teams score
BTTS
33% 2/6
100% 7/7
67%
58%
BTTS & win
0% 0/6
29% 2/7
14%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
17% 1/6
71% 5/7
44%
–
Athletic Club
BIL
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
50% 3/6
86% 6/7
68%
–
Over 1.5
17% 1/6
57% 4/7
37%
–
Over 2.5
0% 0/6
43% 3/7
21%
–
BTTS
0% 0/6
29% 2/7
14%
–
% of each club's games · League = La Liga 2026-2027 (69 games, 3.04 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.25 at home
1.25 away
Athletic Club scored 5 in 4 home games
Rayo Vallecano scored 5 in 4 away games
Athletic Club
BIL
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
Scored over 0.5
67% 4/6
100% 7/7
Scored over 1.5
33% 2/6
43% 3/7
Scored over 2.5
17% 1/6
14% 1/7
Failed to score
33% 2/6
0% 0/7
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.00 at home
3.00 away
Athletic Club conceded 4 in 4 home games
Rayo Vallecano conceded 12 in 4 away games
Athletic Club
BIL
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
Conceded over 0.5
50% 3/6
100% 7/7
Conceded over 1.5
33% 2/6
57% 4/7
Conceded over 2.5
17% 1/6
29% 2/7
Clean sheets
50% 3/6
0% 0/7
Streaks
4
Unbeaten last loss 5 games ago
2
Longest win run this season
2
Unbeaten last loss 3 games ago
7
Scored all 7 this season
7
Conceded all 7 this season
7
Both teams scored all 7 this season
Match Totals
Athletic Club
BIL
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
League
Corners
Corners won
6.17
5.29
–
Corners conceded
4.83
6.14
–
Match total
11.00
11.43
9.65
Over 8.5
67% 4/6
57% 4/7
–
Over 9.5
67% 4/6
57% 4/7
–
Over 10.5
67% 4/6
57% 4/7
–
Cards
Cards
2.17
2.71
–
Opponent cards
1.67
2.00
–
Match total
3.83
4.71
4.42
Over 3.5
33% 2/6
57% 4/7
–
Over 4.5
33% 2/6
57% 4/7
–
Shots
Shots
15.67
13.43
–
Opponent shots
9.50
16.57
–
Match total
25.17
30.00
26.46
Shots on target
On target
4.67
4.57
–
Opponent on target
3.67
5.57
–
Match total
8.33
10.14
–
Fouls
Fouls
11.17
13.43
–
Opponent fouls
11.33
13.14
–
Match total
22.50
26.57
–
Offsides
Offsides
1.50
1.00
–
Opponent offsides
3.67
1.57
–
Match total
5.17
2.57
–
Possession
All games
53%
49%
–
Home games
60%
51%
–
Away games
38%
47%
–
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = La Liga 2026-2027 (69 games) · La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Athletic Club
Scored · 7
0%
29%
0%
29%
14%
28%
Conceded · 6
17%
0%
17%
50%
0%
16%
Rayo Vallecano
Scored · 11
27%
18%
9%
46%
0%
0%
Conceded · 16
13%
31%
6%
19%
6%
25%
40%
Scored first
57%
29%
Goals after 75'
0%
Scored first: Athletic Club 2 of 5, Rayo Vallecano 4 of 7 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
17%50%33%
Leading 1
Level 3
Trailing 2
1.00
points per game
At half-time
100%
1 of 1
Led at HT, won
0%
0 of 2
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 22nd 5
At half-time
29%29%43%
Leading 2
Level 2
Trailing 3
1.14
points per game
At half-time
50%
1 of 2
Led at HT, won
33%
1 of 3
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 62nd 5
1
Points won from losing positions in 3 · 5 games
4
0
Points dropped from winning positions in 2 · 5 games
8
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
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