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10 May 2026-6:45 pm
Stats Prediction
Result probability
35%
29%
36%
AC Milan 35%
Draw 29%
Atalanta 36%
1.1 – 1.1
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-1
13% chance
Most Likely Score
36%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
43%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
AC Milan · at home
Atalanta · away
1.29
Goals scored per game
1.29
0.94
Goals conceded per game
1.06
1.01x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.15x
0.84x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.83x
Average: 1.28 home goals and 1.12 away goals per game in Serie A 2025-2026
Based on 35 + 35 Serie A 2025-2026 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
3-5-2
vs Sassuolo (A) 2-0 · 3 May 2026
Substitutes
Last game lineup
3-4-1-2
vs Genoa (H) 0-0 · 2 May 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings
40%
20%
40%
AC Milan wins 4
Draws 2
Atalanta wins 4
Goals 14 (1.40 per game)
Goals 13 (1.30 per game)
90%
9
of 10
Over 1.5 Goals
40%
4
of 10
Over 2.5 Goals
20%
2
of 10
Over 3.5 Goals
50%
5
of 10
Both Teams Scored
30%
3
of 10
AC Milan Clean Sheets
20%
2
of 10
Atalanta Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 10 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
L
D
W
L
L
L
D
W
L
L
W
L
W
W
L
1.91
19-10-6
PPG Overall
1.88
9-5-3
PPG at Home
1.94
10-5-3
PPG Away
D
L
D
L
W
D
L
D
L
W
W
D
D
L
W
1.57
14-13-8
PPG Overall
1.83
9-6-3
PPG at Home
1.29
5-7-5
PPG Away
Venue form: AC Milan at home +46% on points per game vs Atalanta away (1.88 vs 1.29)
Rest & Schedule
7
days rest
Sassuolo 2-0 AC Milan
2 games in 14 days · 4 in 30 days
8
days rest
Atalanta 0-0 Genoa
2 games in 14 days · 4 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
35
17
18
Win %
54%
53%
56%
Goals per game
2.20
2.24
2.17
Scored
1.37
1.29
1.44
Conceded
0.83
0.94
0.72
Both teams scored
43%
47%
39%
Clean sheets
43%
41%
44%
Failed to score
20%
18%
22%
xG
1.53
1.62
1.44
xGA
1.03
1.00
1.06
Overall
Home
Away
Played
35
18
17
Win %
40%
50%
29%
Goals per game
2.26
2.17
2.35
Scored
1.34
1.39
1.29
Conceded
0.91
0.78
1.06
Both teams scored
51%
44%
59%
Clean sheets
37%
39%
35%
Failed to score
20%
28%
12%
xG
1.58
1.80
1.33
xGA
1.10
0.87
1.35
Serie A 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
AC Milan
AC
Atalanta
ATA
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
94% 33/35
91% 32/35
93%
–
Over 1.5
63% 22/35
74% 26/35
69%
70%
Over 2.5
40% 14/35
37% 13/35
39%
45%
Over 3.5
17% 6/35
17% 6/35
17%
22%
Over 4.5
6% 2/35
6% 2/35
6%
–
Under 2.5
60% 21/35
63% 22/35
61%
55%
Both teams score
BTTS
43% 15/35
51% 18/35
47%
45%
BTTS & win
17% 6/35
11% 4/35
14%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
29% 10/35
26% 9/35
27%
–
AC Milan
AC
Atalanta
ATA
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
60% 21/35
74% 26/35
67%
–
Over 1.5
29% 10/35
26% 9/35
27%
–
Over 2.5
6% 2/35
9% 3/35
7%
–
BTTS
20% 7/35
11% 4/35
16%
–
% of each club's games · League = Serie A 2025-2026 (354 games, 2.41 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.29 at home
1.29 away
AC Milan scored 22 in 17 home games
Atalanta scored 22 in 17 away games
AC Milan
AC
Atalanta
ATA
Scored over 0.5
80% 28/35
80% 28/35
Scored over 1.5
40% 14/35
37% 13/35
Scored over 2.5
17% 6/35
11% 4/35
Failed to score
20% 7/35
20% 7/35
Goals conceded per game at this venue
0.94 at home
1.06 away
AC Milan conceded 16 in 17 home games
Atalanta conceded 18 in 17 away games
AC Milan
AC
Atalanta
ATA
Conceded over 0.5
57% 20/35
63% 22/35
Conceded over 1.5
23% 8/35
17% 6/35
Conceded over 2.5
3% 1/35
11% 4/35
Clean sheets
43% 15/35
37% 13/35
Streaks
Match Totals
AC Milan
AC
Atalanta
ATA
League
Corners
Corners won
4.47
6.06
–
Corners conceded
4.34
4.24
–
Match total
8.81
10.29
8.83
Over 8.5
50% 16/32
68% 23/34
–
Over 9.5
44% 14/32
53% 18/34
–
Over 10.5
28% 9/32
44% 15/34
–
Cards
Cards
1.66
1.66
–
Opponent cards
2.09
1.46
–
Match total
3.74
3.11
3.88
Over 3.5
54% 19/35
43% 15/35
–
Over 4.5
31% 11/35
9% 3/35
–
Shots
Shots
13.03
14.80
–
Opponent shots
11.06
11.46
–
Match total
24.09
26.26
24.38
Shots on target
On target
4.18
4.84
–
Opponent on target
3.70
3.91
–
Match total
7.88
8.75
–
Fouls
Fouls
9.94
11.34
–
Opponent fouls
11.49
10.23
–
Match total
21.43
21.57
–
Possession
All games
52%
56%
–
Home games
54%
56%
–
Away games
50%
55%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Serie A 2025-2026 (354 games) · Serie A 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
AC Milan
Scored · 48
8%
6%
25%
25%
13%
23%
Conceded · 29
14%
17%
17%
14%
21%
17%
Atalanta
Scored · 47
15%
8%
23%
15%
13%
26%
Conceded · 32
9%
25%
19%
12%
16%
19%
61%
Scored first
56%
23%
Goals after 75'
26%
Scored first: AC Milan 20 of 33, Atalanta 18 of 32 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Serie A 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
29%54%17%
Leading 10
Level 19
Trailing 6
1.40
points per game
At half-time
80%
8 of 10
Led at HT, won
50%
3 of 6
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 192nd 29
At half-time
37%37%26%
Leading 13
Level 13
Trailing 9
1.49
points per game
At half-time
92%
12 of 13
Led at HT, won
44%
4 of 9
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 222nd 25
14
Points won from losing positions in 14 · 14 games
8
10
Points dropped from winning positions in 24 · 19 games
10
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Serie A 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Latest Games
