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28 Oct 2026-5:30 pm
Stats Prediction
Result probability
70%
23%
AC Milan 70%
Draw 23%
Bologna 7%
1.6 – 0.3
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-0
23% chance
Most Likely Score
31%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
23%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
AC Milan · all games
Bologna · all games
2.00
Goals scored per game
0.60
0.80
Goals conceded per game
1.20
1.35x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
0.42x
0.56x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.81x
Average: 1.48 home goals and 1.42 away goals per game in Serie A 2026-2027
Based on 5 + 5 Serie A 2026-2027 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
3-4-2-1
vs Lecce (H) 3-0 · 20 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Last game lineup
3-4-3
vs Torino (H) 1-1 · 19 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings
60%
30%
10%
AC Milan wins 6
Draws 3
Bologna wins 1
Goals 19 (1.90 per game)
Goals 8 (0.80 per game)
80%
8
of 10
Over 1.5 Goals
50%
5
of 10
Over 2.5 Goals
30%
3
of 10
Over 3.5 Goals
50%
5
of 10
Both Teams Scored
50%
5
of 10
AC Milan Clean Sheets
10%
1
of 10
Bologna Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 10 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
W
D
D
W
W
2.20
3-2-0
PPG Overall
3.00
2-0-0
PPG at Home
1.67
1-2-0
PPG Away
Venue form: AC Milan at home 3.00 vs Bologna away 0.00 points per game
Rest & Schedule
38
days rest
AC Milan 3-0 Lecce
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
39
days rest
Bologna 1-1 Torino
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
5
2
3
Win %
60%
100%
33%
Goals per game
2.80
2.50
3.00
Scored
2.00
2.50
1.67
Conceded
0.80
0.00
1.33
Both teams scored
60%
0%
100%
Clean sheets
40%
100%
0%
Failed to score
0%
0%
0%
xG
1.58
2.20
1.17
xGA
1.18
0.51
1.63
Overall
Home
Away
Played
5
3
2
Win %
0%
0%
0%
Goals per game
1.80
2.33
1.00
Scored
0.60
1.00
0.00
Conceded
1.20
1.33
1.00
Both teams scored
40%
67%
0%
Clean sheets
0%
0%
0%
Failed to score
60%
33%
100%
xG
1.18
1.53
0.67
xGA
0.95
1.13
0.67
Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
AC Milan
AC
Bologna
BOL
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
100% 5/5
100% 5/5
100%
–
Over 1.5
100% 5/5
40% 2/5
70%
82%
Over 2.5
60% 3/5
20% 1/5
40%
54%
Over 3.5
20% 1/5
20% 1/5
20%
28%
Over 4.5
0% 0/5
0% 0/5
0%
–
Under 2.5
40% 2/5
80% 4/5
60%
46%
Both teams score
BTTS
60% 3/5
40% 2/5
50%
58%
BTTS & win
20% 1/5
0% 0/5
10%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
40% 2/5
20% 1/5
30%
–
AC Milan
AC
Bologna
BOL
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
40% 2/5
40% 2/5
40%
–
Over 1.5
20% 1/5
0% 0/5
10%
–
Over 2.5
0% 0/5
0% 0/5
0%
–
BTTS
0% 0/5
0% 0/5
0%
–
% of each club's games · League = Serie A 2026-2027 (50 games, 2.90 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
2.50 at home
AC Milan scored 5 in 2 home games
Bologna scored 0 in 2 away games
AC Milan
AC
Bologna
BOL
Scored over 0.5
100% 5/5
40% 2/5
Scored over 1.5
80% 4/5
20% 1/5
Scored over 2.5
20% 1/5
0% 0/5
Failed to score
0% 0/5
60% 3/5
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.00 away
AC Milan conceded 0 in 2 home games
Bologna conceded 2 in 2 away games
AC Milan
AC
Bologna
BOL
Conceded over 0.5
60% 3/5
100% 5/5
Conceded over 1.5
20% 1/5
20% 1/5
Conceded over 2.5
0% 0/5
0% 0/5
Clean sheets
40% 2/5
0% 0/5
Streaks
Match Totals
AC Milan
AC
Bologna
BOL
League
Corners
Corners won
2.80
4.20
–
Corners conceded
3.40
6.00
–
Match total
6.20
10.20
9.50
Over 8.5
0% 0/5
60% 3/5
–
Over 9.5
0% 0/5
60% 3/5
–
Over 10.5
0% 0/5
40% 2/5
–
Cards
Cards
1.60
1.40
–
Opponent cards
1.40
1.80
–
Match total
3.00
3.20
3.26
Over 3.5
60% 3/5
20% 1/5
–
Over 4.5
20% 1/5
20% 1/5
–
Shots
Shots
12.80
13.40
–
Opponent shots
9.00
11.80
–
Match total
21.80
25.20
29.14
Shots on target
On target
4.20
3.20
–
Opponent on target
3.40
3.40
–
Match total
7.60
6.60
–
Fouls
Fouls
10.20
14.60
–
Opponent fouls
12.20
12.80
–
Match total
22.40
27.40
–
Offsides
Offsides
1.40
2.20
–
Opponent offsides
2.80
1.40
–
Match total
4.20
3.60
–
Possession
All games
61%
52%
–
Home games
64%
54%
–
Away games
59%
50%
–
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Serie A 2026-2027 (50 games) · Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
AC Milan
Scored · 10
10%
0%
0%
0%
80%
10%
Conceded · 4
25%
0%
25%
0%
0%
50%
Bologna
Scored · 3
34%
0%
0%
33%
0%
33%
Conceded · 6
0%
17%
0%
33%
17%
33%
80%
Scored first
20%
10%
Goals after 75'
33%
Scored first: AC Milan 4 of 5, Bologna 1 of 5 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
20%60%20%
Leading 1
Level 3
Trailing 1
1.20
points per game
At half-time
100%
1 of 1
Led at HT, won
100%
1 of 1
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 12nd 9
At half-time
20%60%20%
Leading 1
Level 3
Trailing 1
1.20
points per game
At half-time
0%
0 of 1
Led at HT, won
100%
1 of 1
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 12nd 2
1
Points won from losing positions in 1 · 4 games
1
2
Points dropped from winning positions in 4 · 1 games
2
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Latest Games
