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6 Jan 2027-5:30 pm
days
hours
minutes
seconds
Stats Prediction
Result probability
86%
9%
AC Milan 86%
Draw 9%
Fiorentina 5%
3.2 – 0.7
goals per side
Expected Goals
3-0
11% chance
Most Likely Score
75%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
47%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
AC Milan · all games
Fiorentina · all games
2.00
Goals scored per game
1.20
0.80
Goals conceded per game
2.40
1.35x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
0.85x
0.56x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
1.62x
Average: 1.48 home goals and 1.42 away goals per game in Serie A 2026-2027
Based on 5 + 5 Serie A 2026-2027 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
3-4-2-1
vs Lecce (H) 3-0 · 20 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-3-3
vs Napoli (H) 1-1 · 20 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings
50%
20%
30%
AC Milan wins 5
Draws 2
Fiorentina wins 3
Goals 17 (1.70 per game)
Goals 15 (1.50 per game)
80%
8
of 10
Over 1.5 Goals
70%
7
of 10
Over 2.5 Goals
30%
3
of 10
Over 3.5 Goals
80%
8
of 10
Both Teams Scored
20%
2
of 10
AC Milan Clean Sheets
0%
0
of 10
Fiorentina Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 10 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
W
D
D
W
W
2.20
3-2-0
PPG Overall
3.00
2-0-0
PPG at Home
1.67
1-2-0
PPG Away
Venue form: AC Milan at home +100% on points per game vs Fiorentina away (3.00 vs 1.50)
Rest & Schedule
108
days rest
AC Milan 3-0 Lecce
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
108
days rest
Fiorentina 1-1 Napoli
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
5
2
3
Win %
60%
100%
33%
Goals per game
2.80
2.50
3.00
Scored
2.00
2.50
1.67
Conceded
0.80
0.00
1.33
Both teams scored
60%
0%
100%
Clean sheets
40%
100%
0%
Failed to score
0%
0%
0%
xG
1.58
2.20
1.17
xGA
1.18
0.51
1.63
Overall
Home
Away
Played
5
3
2
Win %
20%
0%
50%
Goals per game
3.60
2.67
5.00
Scored
1.20
0.67
2.00
Conceded
2.40
2.00
3.00
Both teams scored
60%
67%
50%
Clean sheets
0%
0%
0%
Failed to score
40%
33%
50%
xG
1.72
1.65
1.83
xGA
1.33
1.03
1.78
Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
AC Milan
AC
Fiorentina
FIO
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
100% 5/5
100% 5/5
100%
–
Over 1.5
100% 5/5
100% 5/5
100%
82%
Over 2.5
60% 3/5
80% 4/5
70%
54%
Over 3.5
20% 1/5
40% 2/5
30%
28%
Over 4.5
0% 0/5
20% 1/5
10%
–
Under 2.5
40% 2/5
20% 1/5
30%
46%
Both teams score
BTTS
60% 3/5
60% 3/5
60%
58%
BTTS & win
20% 1/5
20% 1/5
20%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
40% 2/5
40% 2/5
40%
–
AC Milan
AC
Fiorentina
FIO
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
40% 2/5
80% 4/5
60%
–
Over 1.5
20% 1/5
40% 2/5
30%
–
Over 2.5
0% 0/5
20% 1/5
10%
–
BTTS
0% 0/5
20% 1/5
10%
–
% of each club's games · League = Serie A 2026-2027 (50 games, 2.90 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
2.50 at home
2.00 away
AC Milan scored 5 in 2 home games
Fiorentina scored 4 in 2 away games
AC Milan
AC
Fiorentina
FIO
Scored over 0.5
100% 5/5
60% 3/5
Scored over 1.5
80% 4/5
20% 1/5
Scored over 2.5
20% 1/5
20% 1/5
Failed to score
0% 0/5
40% 2/5
Goals conceded per game at this venue
3.00 away
AC Milan conceded 0 in 2 home games
Fiorentina conceded 6 in 2 away games
AC Milan
AC
Fiorentina
FIO
Conceded over 0.5
60% 3/5
100% 5/5
Conceded over 1.5
20% 1/5
80% 4/5
Conceded over 2.5
0% 0/5
40% 2/5
Clean sheets
40% 2/5
0% 0/5
Streaks
5
Unbeaten all 5 this season
5
Scored all 5 this season
2
Over 2.5 goals in a row
2
Longest win run this season
2
Unbeaten last loss 3 games ago
5
Conceded all 5 this season
3
Scored in a row
3
Both teams scored in a row
Match Totals
AC Milan
AC
Fiorentina
FIO
League
Corners
Corners won
2.80
4.40
–
Corners conceded
3.40
3.80
–
Match total
6.20
8.20
9.50
Over 8.5
0% 0/5
40% 2/5
–
Over 9.5
0% 0/5
20% 1/5
–
Over 10.5
0% 0/5
20% 1/5
–
Cards
Cards
1.60
1.80
–
Opponent cards
1.40
1.40
–
Match total
3.00
3.20
3.26
Over 3.5
60% 3/5
40% 2/5
–
Over 4.5
20% 1/5
20% 1/5
–
Shots
Shots
12.80
16.80
–
Opponent shots
9.00
11.80
–
Match total
21.80
28.60
29.14
Shots on target
On target
4.20
5.60
–
Opponent on target
3.40
5.20
–
Match total
7.60
10.80
–
Fouls
Fouls
10.20
11.00
–
Opponent fouls
12.20
13.00
–
Match total
22.40
24.00
–
Offsides
Offsides
1.40
1.00
–
Opponent offsides
2.80
1.20
–
Match total
4.20
2.20
–
Possession
All games
61%
43%
–
Home games
64%
47%
–
Away games
59%
38%
–
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Serie A 2026-2027 (50 games) · Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
AC Milan
Scored · 10
10%
0%
0%
0%
80%
10%
Conceded · 4
25%
0%
25%
0%
0%
50%
Fiorentina
Scored · 6
0%
33%
0%
33%
17%
17%
Conceded · 12
0%
33%
8%
17%
17%
25%
80%
Scored first
20%
10%
Goals after 75'
17%
Scored first: AC Milan 4 of 5, Fiorentina 1 of 5 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
20%60%20%
Leading 1
Level 3
Trailing 1
1.20
points per game
At half-time
100%
1 of 1
Led at HT, won
100%
1 of 1
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 12nd 9
At half-time
20%20%60%
Leading 1
Level 1
Trailing 3
0.80
points per game
At half-time
100%
1 of 1
Led at HT, won
33%
1 of 3
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 22nd 4
1
Points won from losing positions in 1 · 5 games
4
2
Points dropped from winning positions in 4 · 2 games
3
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
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