|
10 Oct 2026-2:15 pm
Stats Prediction
Result probability
52%
24%
24%
Alaves 52%
Draw 24%
Atletico Madrid 24%
1.8 – 1.1
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-1
11% chance
Most Likely Score
55%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
56%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
ALA · at home
Atletico Madrid · away
2.25
Goals scored per game
2.00
0.75
Goals conceded per game
1.33
1.32x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.50x
0.56x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.78x
Average: 1.71 home goals and 1.33 away goals per game in La Liga 2026-2027
Based on 7 + 7 La Liga 2026-2027 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
5-3-2
vs Athletic Club (A) 0-0 · 19 Sep 2026
Substitutes
27
Last game lineup
4-4-2
vs Real Madrid (H) 2-1 · 20 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 6 meetings
17%
33%
50%
Alaves wins 1
Draws 2
Atletico Madrid wins 3
Goals 4 (0.67 per game)
Goals 8 (1.33 per game)
50%
3
of 6
Over 1.5 Goals
33%
2
of 6
Over 2.5 Goals
17%
1
of 6
Over 3.5 Goals
50%
3
of 6
Both Teams Scored
33%
2
of 6
Alaves Clean Sheets
33%
2
of 6
Atletico Madrid Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 6 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
D
L
L
W
W
D
L
L
W
W
D
W
1.57
3-2-2
PPG Overall
2.25
3-0-1
PPG at Home
0.67
0-2-1
PPG Away
W
W
W
L
W
W
W
W
L
W
D
W
2.29
5-1-1
PPG Overall
2.50
3-1-0
PPG at Home
2.00
2-0-1
PPG Away
Venue form: Alaves at home +13% on points per game vs Atletico Madrid away (2.25 vs 2.00)
Rest & Schedule
21
days rest
Athletic Club 0-0 Alaves
0 games in 14 days · 3 in 30 days
20
days rest
Atletico Madrid 2-1 Real Madrid
0 games in 14 days · 3 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
7
4
3
Win %
43%
75%
0%
Goals per game
2.43
3.00
1.67
Scored
1.57
2.25
0.67
Conceded
0.86
0.75
1.00
Both teams scored
43%
25%
67%
Clean sheets
43%
50%
33%
Failed to score
29%
25%
33%
xG
1.29
1.25
1.34
xGA
1.14
0.98
1.35
Overall
Home
Away
Played
7
4
3
Win %
71%
75%
67%
Goals per game
3.29
3.25
3.33
Scored
2.29
2.50
2.00
Conceded
1.00
0.75
1.33
Both teams scored
43%
50%
33%
Clean sheets
43%
50%
33%
Failed to score
14%
0%
33%
xG
1.72
2.01
1.33
xGA
1.02
1.13
0.86
La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Alaves
ALA
Atletico Madrid
ATL
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
86% 6/7
100% 7/7
93%
–
Over 1.5
57% 4/7
100% 7/7
79%
77%
Over 2.5
43% 3/7
86% 6/7
64%
57%
Over 3.5
14% 1/7
43% 3/7
29%
39%
Over 4.5
14% 1/7
0% 0/7
7%
–
Under 2.5
57% 4/7
14% 1/7
36%
43%
Both teams score
BTTS
43% 3/7
43% 3/7
43%
58%
BTTS & win
14% 1/7
29% 2/7
21%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
29% 2/7
43% 3/7
36%
–
Alaves
ALA
Atletico Madrid
ATL
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
43% 3/7
29% 2/7
36%
–
Over 1.5
29% 2/7
14% 1/7
21%
–
Over 2.5
0% 0/7
14% 1/7
7%
–
BTTS
14% 1/7
0% 0/7
7%
–
% of each club's games · League = La Liga 2026-2027 (69 games, 3.04 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
2.25 at home
2.00 away
Alaves scored 9 in 4 home games
Atletico Madrid scored 6 in 3 away games
Alaves
ALA
Atletico Madrid
ATL
Scored over 0.5
71% 5/7
86% 6/7
Scored over 1.5
29% 2/7
86% 6/7
Scored over 2.5
29% 2/7
43% 3/7
Failed to score
29% 2/7
14% 1/7
Goals conceded per game at this venue
0.75 at home
1.33 away
Alaves conceded 3 in 4 home games
Atletico Madrid conceded 4 in 3 away games
Alaves
ALA
Atletico Madrid
ATL
Conceded over 0.5
57% 4/7
57% 4/7
Conceded over 1.5
29% 2/7
29% 2/7
Conceded over 2.5
0% 0/7
14% 1/7
Clean sheets
43% 3/7
43% 3/7
Streaks
3
Without a win last win 4 games ago
2
Failed to score in a row
2
Longest win run this season
3
Won in a row
6
Over 2.5 goals in a row
3
Scored in a row
Match Totals
Alaves
ALA
Atletico Madrid
ATL
League
Corners
Corners won
4.29
5.00
–
Corners conceded
5.14
3.00
–
Match total
9.43
8.00
9.65
Over 8.5
43% 3/7
29% 2/7
–
Over 9.5
43% 3/7
29% 2/7
–
Over 10.5
29% 2/7
29% 2/7
–
Cards
Cards
2.00
1.86
–
Opponent cards
2.43
2.00
–
Match total
4.43
3.86
4.42
Over 3.5
57% 4/7
57% 4/7
–
Over 4.5
43% 3/7
43% 3/7
–
Shots
Shots
12.43
17.00
–
Opponent shots
12.14
9.71
–
Match total
24.57
26.71
26.46
Shots on target
On target
4.43
6.43
–
Opponent on target
4.14
3.29
–
Match total
8.57
9.71
–
Fouls
Fouls
13.57
12.29
–
Opponent fouls
13.14
11.86
–
Match total
26.71
24.14
–
Offsides
Offsides
3.86
1.71
–
Opponent offsides
1.86
1.14
–
Match total
5.71
2.86
–
Possession
All games
42%
57%
–
Home games
42%
59%
–
Away games
42%
55%
–
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = La Liga 2026-2027 (69 games) · La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Alaves
Scored · 11
0%
18%
18%
9%
18%
37%
Conceded · 6
0%
0%
17%
50%
17%
16%
Atletico Madrid
Scored · 16
6%
13%
6%
25%
13%
37%
Conceded · 7
0%
0%
0%
29%
28%
43%
67%
Scored first
86%
36%
Goals after 75'
38%
Scored first: Alaves 4 of 6, Atletico Madrid 6 of 7 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
29%71%
Leading 2
Level 5
Trailing 0
1.57
points per game
At half-time
100%
2 of 2
Led at HT, won
–
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 42nd 7
At half-time
29%71%
Leading 2
Level 5
Trailing 0
1.57
points per game
At half-time
100%
2 of 2
Led at HT, won
–
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 42nd 12
1
Points won from losing positions in 3 · 2 games
1
3
Points dropped from winning positions in 4 · 6 games
2
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Latest Games
