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23 May 2027-3:00 pm
days
hours
minutes
seconds
Stats Prediction
Result probability
64%
21%
15%
Alaves 64%
Draw 21%
Real Madrid 15%
2.0 – 0.8
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-0
12% chance
Most Likely Score
53%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
49%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
ALA · at home
Real Madrid · away
2.25
Goals scored per game
1.50
0.75
Goals conceded per game
1.50
1.32x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.13x
0.56x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.88x
Average: 1.71 home goals and 1.33 away goals per game in La Liga 2026-2027
Based on 7 + 7 La Liga 2026-2027 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
5-3-2
vs Athletic Club (A) 0-0 · 19 Sep 2026
Substitutes
27
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Atletico Madrid (A) 2-1 · 20 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 6 meetings
100%
Alaves wins 0
Draws 0
Real Madrid wins 6
Goals 5 (0.83 per game)
Goals 15 (2.50 per game)
83%
5
of 6
Over 1.5 Goals
83%
5
of 6
Over 2.5 Goals
33%
2
of 6
Over 3.5 Goals
67%
4
of 6
Both Teams Scored
0%
0
of 6
Alaves Clean Sheets
33%
2
of 6
Real Madrid Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 6 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
D
L
L
W
W
D
L
L
W
W
D
W
1.57
3-2-2
PPG Overall
2.25
3-0-1
PPG at Home
0.67
0-2-1
PPG Away
L
W
W
L
W
L
W
W
L
W
W
W
2.14
5-0-2
PPG Overall
3.00
3-0-0
PPG at Home
1.50
2-0-2
PPG Away
Venue form: Alaves at home +50% on points per game vs Real Madrid away (2.25 vs 1.50)
Rest & Schedule
246
days rest
Athletic Club 0-0 Alaves
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
245
days rest
Atletico Madrid 2-1 Real Madrid
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
7
4
3
Win %
43%
75%
0%
Goals per game
2.43
3.00
1.67
Scored
1.57
2.25
0.67
Conceded
0.86
0.75
1.00
Both teams scored
43%
25%
67%
Clean sheets
43%
50%
33%
Failed to score
29%
25%
33%
xG
1.29
1.25
1.34
xGA
1.14
0.98
1.35
Overall
Home
Away
Played
7
3
4
Win %
71%
100%
50%
Goals per game
3.71
4.67
3.00
Scored
2.57
4.00
1.50
Conceded
1.14
0.67
1.50
Both teams scored
71%
67%
75%
Clean sheets
14%
33%
0%
Failed to score
14%
0%
25%
xG
2.64
2.79
2.52
xGA
1.09
0.83
1.28
La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Alaves
ALA
Real Madrid
REA
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
86% 6/7
100% 7/7
93%
–
Over 1.5
57% 4/7
86% 6/7
71%
77%
Over 2.5
43% 3/7
86% 6/7
64%
57%
Over 3.5
14% 1/7
57% 4/7
36%
39%
Over 4.5
14% 1/7
43% 3/7
29%
–
Under 2.5
57% 4/7
14% 1/7
36%
43%
Both teams score
BTTS
43% 3/7
71% 5/7
57%
58%
BTTS & win
14% 1/7
57% 4/7
36%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
29% 2/7
71% 5/7
50%
–
Alaves
ALA
Real Madrid
REA
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
43% 3/7
71% 5/7
57%
–
Over 1.5
29% 2/7
71% 5/7
50%
–
Over 2.5
0% 0/7
29% 2/7
14%
–
BTTS
14% 1/7
29% 2/7
21%
–
% of each club's games · League = La Liga 2026-2027 (69 games, 3.04 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
2.25 at home
1.50 away
Alaves scored 9 in 4 home games
Real Madrid scored 6 in 4 away games
Alaves
ALA
Real Madrid
REA
Scored over 0.5
71% 5/7
86% 6/7
Scored over 1.5
29% 2/7
71% 5/7
Scored over 2.5
29% 2/7
57% 4/7
Failed to score
29% 2/7
14% 1/7
Goals conceded per game at this venue
0.75 at home
1.50 away
Alaves conceded 3 in 4 home games
Real Madrid conceded 6 in 4 away games
Alaves
ALA
Real Madrid
REA
Conceded over 0.5
57% 4/7
86% 6/7
Conceded over 1.5
29% 2/7
29% 2/7
Conceded over 2.5
0% 0/7
0% 0/7
Clean sheets
43% 3/7
14% 1/7
Streaks
3
Without a win last win 4 games ago
2
Failed to score in a row
2
Longest win run this season
1
Lost last game
4
Conceded in a row
3
Scored in a row
3
Both teams scored in a row
3
Longest win run this season
Match Totals
Alaves
ALA
Real Madrid
REA
League
Corners
Corners won
4.29
6.86
–
Corners conceded
5.14
4.14
–
Match total
9.43
11.00
9.65
Over 8.5
43% 3/7
57% 4/7
–
Over 9.5
43% 3/7
57% 4/7
–
Over 10.5
29% 2/7
57% 4/7
–
Cards
Cards
2.00
1.86
–
Opponent cards
2.43
2.86
–
Match total
4.43
4.71
4.42
Over 3.5
57% 4/7
71% 5/7
–
Over 4.5
43% 3/7
71% 5/7
–
Shots
Shots
12.43
18.86
–
Opponent shots
12.14
12.71
–
Match total
24.57
31.57
26.46
Shots on target
On target
4.43
7.57
–
Opponent on target
4.14
4.43
–
Match total
8.57
12.00
–
Fouls
Fouls
13.57
8.43
–
Opponent fouls
13.14
14.29
–
Match total
26.71
22.71
–
Offsides
Offsides
3.86
1.86
–
Opponent offsides
1.86
1.14
–
Match total
5.71
3.00
–
Possession
All games
42%
52%
–
Home games
42%
54%
–
Away games
42%
51%
–
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = La Liga 2026-2027 (69 games) · La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Alaves
Scored · 11
0%
18%
18%
9%
18%
37%
Conceded · 6
0%
0%
17%
50%
17%
16%
Real Madrid
Scored · 18
11%
28%
17%
6%
5%
33%
Conceded · 8
0%
13%
13%
37%
12%
25%
67%
Scored first
71%
36%
Goals after 75'
33%
Scored first: Alaves 4 of 6, Real Madrid 5 of 7 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
29%71%
Leading 2
Level 5
Trailing 0
1.57
points per game
At half-time
100%
2 of 2
Led at HT, won
–
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 42nd 7
At half-time
43%57%
Leading 3
Level 4
Trailing 0
1.86
points per game
At half-time
100%
3 of 3
Led at HT, won
–
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 102nd 8
1
Points won from losing positions in 3 · 2 games
0
3
Points dropped from winning positions in 4 · 5 games
0
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Latest Games
