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17 May 2026-1:00 pm
Stats Prediction
Result probability
49%
37%
14%
AS Roma 49%
Draw 37%
Lazio 14%
1.0 – 0.4
goals per side
Expected Goals
0-0
26% chance
Most Likely Score
16%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
20%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
AS Roma · at home
Lazio · away
1.72
Goals scored per game
0.78
0.56
Goals conceded per game
0.72
1.34x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
0.69x
0.49x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.56x
Average: 1.28 home goals and 1.12 away goals per game in Serie A 2025-2026
Based on 35 + 36 Serie A 2025-2026 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
3-4-2-1
vs Fiorentina (H) 4-0 · 4 May 2026
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-3-3
vs Inter (H) 0-3 · 9 May 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings
40%
20%
40%
AS Roma wins 4
Draws 2
Lazio wins 4
Goals 11 (1.10 per game)
Goals 9 (0.90 per game)
60%
6
of 10
Over 1.5 Goals
30%
3
of 10
Over 2.5 Goals
10%
1
of 10
Over 3.5 Goals
20%
2
of 10
Both Teams Scored
50%
5
of 10
AS Roma Clean Sheets
40%
4
of 10
Lazio Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 10 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Opponent
AS Roma
AS
Lazio
LAZ
Points on these 5
21 of 30 · 2.10 per game
11 of 30 · 1.10 per game
Form & Points per Game
W
W
D
W
L
W
W
D
W
L
W
L
L
D
W
1.83
20-4-11
PPG Overall
2.17
12-3-3
PPG at Home
1.47
8-1-8
PPG Away
L
W
D
W
L
L
W
D
W
L
D
W
W
W
L
1.42
13-12-11
PPG Overall
1.50
7-6-5
PPG at Home
1.33
6-6-6
PPG Away
Venue form: AS Roma at home +63% on points per game vs Lazio away (2.17 vs 1.33)
Rest & Schedule
13
days rest
AS Roma 4-0 Fiorentina
1 game in 14 days · 3 in 30 days
8
days rest
Lazio 0-3 Inter
2 games in 14 days · 4 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
35
18
17
Win %
57%
67%
47%
Goals per game
2.31
2.28
2.35
Scored
1.49
1.72
1.24
Conceded
0.83
0.56
1.12
Both teams scored
34%
28%
41%
Clean sheets
46%
56%
35%
Failed to score
20%
17%
24%
xG
1.37
1.45
1.28
xGA
1.03
0.79
1.28
Overall
Home
Away
Played
36
18
18
Win %
36%
39%
33%
Goals per game
2.11
2.72
1.50
Scored
1.08
1.39
0.78
Conceded
1.03
1.33
0.72
Both teams scored
28%
39%
17%
Clean sheets
42%
33%
50%
Failed to score
44%
33%
56%
xG
1.09
1.29
0.89
xGA
1.24
1.31
1.16
Serie A 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
AS Roma
AS
Lazio
LAZ
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
100% 35/35
86% 31/36
93%
–
Over 1.5
63% 22/35
64% 23/36
63%
70%
Over 2.5
37% 13/35
31% 11/36
34%
45%
Over 3.5
17% 6/35
17% 6/36
17%
22%
Over 4.5
6% 2/35
8% 3/36
7%
–
Under 2.5
63% 22/35
69% 25/36
66%
55%
Both teams score
BTTS
34% 12/35
28% 10/36
31%
45%
BTTS & win
11% 4/35
8% 3/36
10%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
29% 10/35
19% 7/36
24%
–
AS Roma
AS
Lazio
LAZ
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
66% 23/35
58% 21/36
62%
–
Over 1.5
23% 8/35
22% 8/36
23%
–
Over 2.5
11% 4/35
6% 2/36
8%
–
BTTS
11% 4/35
8% 3/36
10%
–
% of each club's games · League = Serie A 2025-2026 (354 games, 2.41 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.72 at home
0.78 away
AS Roma scored 31 in 18 home games
Lazio scored 14 in 18 away games
AS Roma
AS
Lazio
LAZ
Scored over 0.5
80% 28/35
56% 20/36
Scored over 1.5
49% 17/35
36% 13/36
Scored over 2.5
17% 6/35
14% 5/36
Failed to score
20% 7/35
44% 16/36
Goals conceded per game at this venue
0.56 at home
0.72 away
AS Roma conceded 10 in 18 home games
Lazio conceded 13 in 18 away games
AS Roma
AS
Lazio
LAZ
Conceded over 0.5
54% 19/35
58% 21/36
Conceded over 1.5
17% 6/35
33% 12/36
Conceded over 2.5
6% 2/35
11% 4/36
Clean sheets
46% 16/35
42% 15/36
Streaks
Match Totals
AS Roma
AS
Lazio
LAZ
League
Corners
Corners won
5.00
4.06
–
Corners conceded
3.34
3.88
–
Match total
8.34
7.94
8.83
Over 8.5
43% 15/35
50% 16/32
–
Over 9.5
29% 10/35
25% 8/32
–
Over 10.5
26% 9/35
13% 4/32
–
Cards
Cards
1.97
2.19
–
Opponent cards
2.09
2.56
–
Match total
4.06
4.75
3.88
Over 3.5
60% 21/35
72% 26/36
–
Over 4.5
37% 13/35
56% 20/36
–
Shots
Shots
12.80
10.89
–
Opponent shots
9.83
13.22
–
Match total
22.63
24.11
24.38
Shots on target
On target
4.44
4.03
–
Opponent on target
3.79
4.29
–
Match total
8.24
8.32
–
Fouls
Fouls
13.86
10.39
–
Opponent fouls
13.89
14.53
–
Match total
27.74
24.92
–
Possession
All games
56%
50%
–
Home games
58%
50%
–
Away games
54%
51%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Serie A 2025-2026 (354 games) · Serie A 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
AS Roma
Scored · 52
16%
15%
17%
15%
23%
14%
Conceded · 29
17%
0%
17%
24%
11%
31%
Lazio
Scored · 39
16%
10%
10%
15%
10%
39%
Conceded · 37
14%
16%
16%
19%
16%
19%
63%
Scored first
52%
13%
Goals after 75'
38%
Scored first: AS Roma 22 of 35, Lazio 16 of 31 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Serie A 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
43%40%17%
Leading 15
Level 14
Trailing 6
1.69
points per game
At half-time
87%
13 of 15
Led at HT, won
0%
0 of 6
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 252nd 27
At half-time
22%47%31%
Leading 8
Level 17
Trailing 11
1.14
points per game
At half-time
75%
6 of 8
Led at HT, won
27%
3 of 11
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 142nd 25
5
Points won from losing positions in 14 · 16 games
7
7
Points dropped from winning positions in 23 · 19 games
12
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Serie A 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
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