|
17 May 2026-5:00 pm
Stats Prediction
Result probability
25%
29%
46%
Athletic Club 25%
Draw 29%
Celta Vigo 46%
0.8 – 1.3
goals per side
Expected Goals
0-1
16% chance
Most Likely Score
35%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
BIL · at home
CEL · away
1.24
Goals scored per game
1.28
1.12
Goals conceded per game
1.06
0.79x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.12x
0.98x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.67x
Average: 1.57 home goals and 1.14 away goals per game in La Liga 2025-2026
Based on 34 + 35 La Liga 2025-2026 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Alaves (A) 2-4 · 2 May 2026
Substitutes
25
Last game lineup
3-4-2-1
vs Atletico Madrid (A) 0-1 · 9 May 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 7 meetings
57%
43%
Athletic Club wins 4
Draws 0
Celta Vigo wins 3
Goals 8 (1.14 per game)
Goals 8 (1.14 per game)
71%
5
of 7
Over 1.5 Goals
43%
3
of 7
Over 2.5 Goals
14%
1
of 7
Over 3.5 Goals
43%
3
of 7
Both Teams Scored
14%
1
of 7
Athletic Club Clean Sheets
43%
3
of 7
Celta Vigo Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 7 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Opponent
Athletic Club
BIL
Celta Vigo
CEL
Points on these 5
10 of 30 · 1.00 per game
11 of 30 · 1.10 per game
Form & Points per Game
W
L
W
L
L
W
L
W
L
L
W
L
L
D
W
1.29
13-5-16
PPG Overall
1.71
9-2-6
PPG at Home
0.88
4-3-10
PPG Away
W
W
L
L
L
W
W
L
L
L
W
L
D
L
W
1.43
13-11-11
PPG Overall
1.18
5-5-7
PPG at Home
1.67
8-6-4
PPG Away
Venue form: Athletic Club at home +2% on points per game vs Celta Vigo away (1.71 vs 1.67)
Rest & Schedule
15
days rest
Alaves 2-4 Athletic Club
0 games in 14 days · 3 in 30 days
8
days rest
Atletico Madrid 0-1 Celta Vigo
1 game in 14 days · 4 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
34
17
17
Win %
38%
53%
24%
Goals per game
2.65
2.35
2.94
Scored
1.18
1.24
1.12
Conceded
1.47
1.12
1.82
Both teams scored
53%
53%
53%
Clean sheets
18%
24%
12%
Failed to score
32%
24%
41%
xG
1.30
1.41
1.20
xGA
1.06
0.78
1.34
Overall
Home
Away
Played
35
17
18
Win %
37%
29%
44%
Goals per game
2.66
3.00
2.33
Scored
1.40
1.53
1.28
Conceded
1.26
1.47
1.06
Both teams scored
63%
65%
61%
Clean sheets
26%
18%
33%
Failed to score
17%
18%
17%
xG
1.26
1.41
1.13
xGA
1.26
1.20
1.32
La Liga 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Athletic Club
BIL
Celta Vigo
CEL
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
97% 33/34
94% 33/35
96%
–
Over 1.5
74% 25/34
80% 28/35
77%
79%
Over 2.5
50% 17/34
46% 16/35
48%
51%
Over 3.5
21% 7/34
23% 8/35
22%
26%
Over 4.5
18% 6/34
14% 5/35
16%
–
Under 2.5
50% 17/34
54% 19/35
52%
49%
Both teams score
BTTS
53% 18/34
63% 22/35
58%
57%
BTTS & win
24% 8/34
17% 6/35
20%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
41% 14/34
40% 14/35
41%
–
Athletic Club
BIL
Celta Vigo
CEL
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
68% 23/34
66% 23/35
67%
–
Over 1.5
32% 11/34
23% 8/35
28%
–
Over 2.5
3% 1/34
9% 3/35
6%
–
BTTS
12% 4/34
14% 5/35
13%
–
% of each club's games · League = La Liga 2025-2026 (345 games, 2.70 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.24 at home
1.28 away
Athletic Club scored 21 in 17 home games
Celta Vigo scored 23 in 18 away games
Athletic Club
BIL
Celta Vigo
CEL
Scored over 0.5
68% 23/34
83% 29/35
Scored over 1.5
35% 12/34
37% 13/35
Scored over 2.5
9% 3/34
17% 6/35
Failed to score
32% 11/34
17% 6/35
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.12 at home
1.06 away
Athletic Club conceded 19 in 17 home games
Celta Vigo conceded 19 in 18 away games
Athletic Club
BIL
Celta Vigo
CEL
Conceded over 0.5
82% 28/34
74% 26/35
Conceded over 1.5
44% 15/34
34% 12/35
Conceded over 2.5
18% 6/34
11% 4/35
Clean sheets
18% 6/34
26% 9/35
Streaks
1
Won last game
4
Scored in a row
2
Conceded in a row
2
Both teams scored in a row
3
Longest win run this season
2
Won in a row
3
Scored in a row
3
Longest win run this season
Match Totals
Athletic Club
BIL
Celta Vigo
CEL
League
Corners
Corners won
5.53
4.09
–
Corners conceded
3.76
4.39
–
Match total
9.29
8.48
9.65
Over 8.5
65% 22/34
42% 14/33
–
Over 9.5
50% 17/34
30% 10/33
–
Over 10.5
38% 13/34
27% 9/33
–
Cards
Cards
2.35
2.00
–
Opponent cards
2.12
2.43
–
Match total
4.47
4.43
4.62
Over 3.5
62% 21/34
60% 21/35
–
Over 4.5
50% 17/34
40% 14/35
–
Shots
Shots
13.47
10.03
–
Opponent shots
9.38
12.17
–
Match total
22.85
22.20
24.67
Shots on target
On target
4.61
3.91
–
Opponent on target
4.15
4.21
–
Match total
8.76
8.12
–
Fouls
Fouls
12.88
11.74
–
Opponent fouls
10.85
12.09
–
Match total
23.74
23.83
–
Possession
All games
49%
50%
–
Home games
49%
52%
–
Away games
49%
49%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = La Liga 2025-2026 (345 games) · La Liga 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Athletic Club
Scored · 40
8%
13%
23%
12%
12%
32%
Conceded · 50
14%
4%
20%
22%
16%
24%
Celta Vigo
Scored · 49
6%
14%
14%
25%
12%
29%
Conceded · 44
16%
7%
23%
11%
20%
23%
42%
Scored first
52%
33%
Goals after 75'
29%
Scored first: Athletic Club 14 of 33, Celta Vigo 17 of 33 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · La Liga 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
24%44%32%
Leading 8
Level 15
Trailing 11
1.15
points per game
At half-time
88%
7 of 8
Led at HT, won
55%
6 of 11
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 172nd 23
At half-time
26%40%34%
Leading 9
Level 14
Trailing 12
1.17
points per game
At half-time
44%
4 of 9
Led at HT, won
50%
6 of 12
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 172nd 32
10
Points won from losing positions in 22 · 19 games
14
9
Points dropped from winning positions in 16 · 19 games
13
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · La Liga 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Latest Games
