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10 May 2026-7:00 pm
Stats Prediction
Result probability
63%
21%
16%
Barcelona 63%
Draw 21%
Real Madrid 16%
2.0 – 0.8
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-0
12% chance
Most Likely Score
53%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
49%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
Barcelona · at home
Real Madrid · away
3.06
Goals scored per game
1.82
0.53
Goals conceded per game
1.00
1.95x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.60x
0.47x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.64x
Average: 1.57 home goals and 1.14 away goals per game in La Liga 2025-2026
Based on 34 + 34 La Liga 2025-2026 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Osasuna (A) 1-2 · 2 May 2026
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-4-2
vs Espanyol (A) 0-2 · 3 May 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 7 meetings
57%
43%
Barcelona wins 4
Draws 0
Real Madrid wins 3
Goals 17 (2.43 per game)
Goals 11 (1.57 per game)
100%
7
of 7
Over 1.5 Goals
100%
7
of 7
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
4
of 7
Over 3.5 Goals
71%
5
of 7
Both Teams Scored
29%
2
of 7
Barcelona Clean Sheets
0%
0
of 7
Real Madrid Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 7 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Opponent
Barcelona
BAR
Real Madrid
REA
Points on these 5
27 of 27 · 3.00 per game
19 of 30 · 1.90 per game
Form & Points per Game
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
2.59
29-1-4
PPG Overall
3.00
17-0-0
PPG at Home
2.18
12-1-4
PPG Away
W
D
W
D
L
W
D
W
D
L
W
W
W
L
L
2.26
24-5-5
PPG Overall
2.53
14-1-2
PPG at Home
2.00
10-4-3
PPG Away
Venue form: Barcelona at home +50% on points per game vs Real Madrid away (3.00 vs 2.00)
Rest & Schedule
8
days rest
Osasuna 1-2 Barcelona
1 game in 14 days · 4 in 30 days
7
days rest
Espanyol 0-2 Real Madrid
1 game in 14 days · 4 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
34
17
17
Win %
85%
100%
71%
Goals per game
3.53
3.59
3.47
Scored
2.62
3.06
2.18
Conceded
0.91
0.53
1.29
Both teams scored
59%
47%
71%
Clean sheets
41%
53%
29%
Failed to score
0%
0%
0%
xG
2.40
2.46
2.34
xGA
1.22
0.92
1.52
Overall
Home
Away
Played
34
17
17
Win %
71%
82%
59%
Goals per game
2.97
3.12
2.82
Scored
2.06
2.29
1.82
Conceded
0.91
0.82
1.00
Both teams scored
59%
59%
59%
Clean sheets
35%
29%
41%
Failed to score
9%
12%
6%
xG
2.01
2.29
1.72
xGA
1.09
0.92
1.25
La Liga 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Barcelona
BAR
Real Madrid
REA
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
100% 34/34
97% 33/34
99%
–
Over 1.5
91% 31/34
88% 30/34
90%
79%
Over 2.5
76% 26/34
59% 20/34
68%
51%
Over 3.5
41% 14/34
26% 9/34
34%
26%
Over 4.5
24% 8/34
18% 6/34
21%
–
Under 2.5
24% 8/34
41% 14/34
32%
49%
Both teams score
BTTS
59% 20/34
59% 20/34
59%
57%
BTTS & win
44% 15/34
38% 13/34
41%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
56% 19/34
50% 17/34
53%
–
Barcelona
BAR
Real Madrid
REA
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
82% 28/34
68% 23/34
75%
–
Over 1.5
56% 19/34
29% 10/34
43%
–
Over 2.5
24% 8/34
15% 5/34
19%
–
BTTS
35% 12/34
15% 5/34
25%
–
% of each club's games · League = La Liga 2025-2026 (345 games, 2.70 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
3.06 at home
1.82 away
Barcelona scored 52 in 17 home games
Real Madrid scored 31 in 17 away games
Barcelona
BAR
Real Madrid
REA
Scored over 0.5
100% 34/34
91% 31/34
Scored over 1.5
76% 26/34
71% 24/34
Scored over 2.5
53% 18/34
26% 9/34
Failed to score
0% 0/34
9% 3/34
Goals conceded per game at this venue
0.53 at home
1.00 away
Barcelona conceded 9 in 17 home games
Real Madrid conceded 17 in 17 away games
Barcelona
BAR
Real Madrid
REA
Conceded over 0.5
59% 20/34
65% 22/34
Conceded over 1.5
24% 8/34
18% 6/34
Conceded over 2.5
6% 2/34
3% 1/34
Clean sheets
41% 14/34
35% 12/34
Streaks
10
Won in a row
34
Scored all 34 this season
4
Unbeaten last loss 5 games ago
8
Scored in a row
8
Longest win run this season
Match Totals
Barcelona
BAR
Real Madrid
REA
League
Corners
Corners won
6.85
6.35
–
Corners conceded
4.27
3.94
–
Match total
11.12
10.29
9.65
Over 8.5
82% 27/33
77% 24/31
–
Over 9.5
64% 21/33
65% 20/31
–
Over 10.5
52% 17/33
45% 14/31
–
Cards
Cards
1.50
2.00
–
Opponent cards
2.65
2.59
–
Match total
4.15
4.59
4.62
Over 3.5
47% 16/34
50% 17/34
–
Over 4.5
38% 13/34
44% 15/34
–
Shots
Shots
19.00
17.65
–
Opponent shots
8.91
10.59
–
Match total
27.91
28.24
24.67
Shots on target
On target
7.00
6.63
–
Opponent on target
3.70
3.40
–
Match total
10.70
10.03
–
Fouls
Fouls
9.79
10.47
–
Opponent fouls
12.06
13.29
–
Match total
21.85
23.76
–
Possession
All games
69%
59%
–
Home games
69%
60%
–
Away games
69%
59%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = La Liga 2025-2026 (345 games) · La Liga 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Barcelona
Scored · 89
17%
10%
19%
15%
17%
22%
Conceded · 31
16%
13%
32%
6%
10%
23%
Real Madrid
Scored · 70
7%
15%
20%
20%
14%
24%
Conceded · 31
3%
10%
23%
19%
19%
26%
71%
Scored first
73%
22%
Goals after 75'
24%
Scored first: Barcelona 24 of 34, Real Madrid 24 of 33 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · La Liga 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
56%29%15%
Leading 19
Level 10
Trailing 5
1.97
points per game
At half-time
95%
18 of 19
Led at HT, won
40%
2 of 5
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 412nd 48
At half-time
47%38%15%
Leading 16
Level 13
Trailing 5
1.79
points per game
At half-time
94%
15 of 16
Led at HT, won
40%
2 of 5
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 292nd 41
21
Points won from losing positions in 11 · 9 games
8
5
Points dropped from winning positions in 31 · 27 games
7
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · La Liga 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
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