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24 May 2026-1:00 pm
Stats Prediction
Result probability
27%
27%
46%
Fiorentina 27%
Draw 27%
Atalanta 46%
1.0 – 1.4
goals per side
Expected Goals
0-1
13% chance
Most Likely Score
41%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
46%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
Fiorentina · at home
Atalanta · away
1.18
Goals scored per game
1.29
1.18
Goals conceded per game
1.06
0.92x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.15x
1.05x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.83x
Average: 1.28 home goals and 1.12 away goals per game in Serie A 2025-2026
Based on 35 + 35 Serie A 2025-2026 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-3-3
vs AS Roma (A) 4-0 · 4 May 2026
Substitutes
Last game lineup
3-4-1-2
vs Genoa (H) 0-0 · 2 May 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings
40%
10%
50%
Fiorentina wins 4
Draws 1
Atalanta wins 5
Goals 12 (1.20 per game)
Goals 16 (1.60 per game)
70%
7
of 10
Over 1.5 Goals
50%
5
of 10
Over 2.5 Goals
30%
3
of 10
Over 3.5 Goals
50%
5
of 10
Both Teams Scored
20%
2
of 10
Fiorentina Clean Sheets
30%
3
of 10
Atalanta Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 10 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
L
D
D
W
W
L
D
D
W
W
D
W
D
L
W
1.06
8-13-14
PPG Overall
1.12
4-7-6
PPG at Home
1.00
4-6-8
PPG Away
D
L
D
L
W
D
L
D
L
W
W
D
D
L
W
1.57
14-13-8
PPG Overall
1.83
9-6-3
PPG at Home
1.29
5-7-5
PPG Away
Venue form: Atalanta away +15% on points per game vs Fiorentina at home (1.29 vs 1.12)
Rest & Schedule
20
days rest
AS Roma 4-0 Fiorentina
0 games in 14 days · 2 in 30 days
22
days rest
Atalanta 0-0 Genoa
0 games in 14 days · 2 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
35
17
18
Win %
23%
24%
22%
Goals per game
2.49
2.35
2.61
Scored
1.09
1.18
1.00
Conceded
1.40
1.18
1.61
Both teams scored
60%
65%
56%
Clean sheets
23%
29%
17%
Failed to score
29%
18%
39%
xG
1.39
1.64
1.16
xGA
1.34
1.14
1.52
Overall
Home
Away
Played
35
18
17
Win %
40%
50%
29%
Goals per game
2.26
2.17
2.35
Scored
1.34
1.39
1.29
Conceded
0.91
0.78
1.06
Both teams scored
51%
44%
59%
Clean sheets
37%
39%
35%
Failed to score
20%
28%
12%
xG
1.58
1.80
1.33
xGA
1.10
0.87
1.35
Serie A 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Fiorentina
FIO
Atalanta
ATA
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
89% 31/35
91% 32/35
90%
–
Over 1.5
71% 25/35
74% 26/35
73%
70%
Over 2.5
54% 19/35
37% 13/35
46%
45%
Over 3.5
26% 9/35
17% 6/35
21%
22%
Over 4.5
6% 2/35
6% 2/35
6%
–
Under 2.5
46% 16/35
63% 22/35
54%
55%
Both teams score
BTTS
60% 21/35
51% 18/35
56%
45%
BTTS & win
11% 4/35
11% 4/35
11%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
46% 16/35
26% 9/35
36%
–
Fiorentina
FIO
Atalanta
ATA
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
66% 23/35
74% 26/35
70%
–
Over 1.5
23% 8/35
26% 9/35
24%
–
Over 2.5
11% 4/35
9% 3/35
10%
–
BTTS
9% 3/35
11% 4/35
10%
–
% of each club's games · League = Serie A 2025-2026 (354 games, 2.41 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.18 at home
1.29 away
Fiorentina scored 20 in 17 home games
Atalanta scored 22 in 17 away games
Fiorentina
FIO
Atalanta
ATA
Scored over 0.5
71% 25/35
80% 28/35
Scored over 1.5
23% 8/35
37% 13/35
Scored over 2.5
6% 2/35
11% 4/35
Failed to score
29% 10/35
20% 7/35
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.18 at home
1.06 away
Fiorentina conceded 20 in 17 home games
Atalanta conceded 18 in 17 away games
Fiorentina
FIO
Atalanta
ATA
Conceded over 0.5
77% 27/35
63% 22/35
Conceded over 1.5
46% 16/35
17% 6/35
Conceded over 2.5
14% 5/35
11% 4/35
Clean sheets
23% 8/35
37% 13/35
Streaks
3
Without a win last win 4 games ago
2
Failed to score in a row
2
Longest win run this season
4
Without a win last win 5 games ago
3
Longest win run this season
Match Totals
Fiorentina
FIO
Atalanta
ATA
League
Corners
Corners won
4.54
6.06
–
Corners conceded
4.60
4.24
–
Match total
9.14
10.29
8.83
Over 8.5
57% 20/35
68% 23/34
–
Over 9.5
51% 18/35
53% 18/34
–
Over 10.5
29% 10/35
44% 15/34
–
Cards
Cards
2.46
1.66
–
Opponent cards
2.37
1.46
–
Match total
4.83
3.11
3.88
Over 3.5
74% 26/35
43% 15/35
–
Over 4.5
63% 22/35
9% 3/35
–
Shots
Shots
12.83
14.80
–
Opponent shots
12.97
11.46
–
Match total
25.80
26.26
24.38
Shots on target
On target
3.64
4.84
–
Opponent on target
4.61
3.91
–
Match total
8.24
8.75
–
Fouls
Fouls
12.17
11.34
–
Opponent fouls
15.54
10.23
–
Match total
27.71
21.57
–
Possession
All games
51%
56%
–
Home games
53%
56%
–
Away games
50%
55%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Serie A 2025-2026 (354 games) · Serie A 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Fiorentina
Scored · 38
11%
18%
11%
26%
18%
16%
Conceded · 49
16%
12%
12%
21%
16%
23%
Atalanta
Scored · 47
15%
8%
23%
15%
13%
26%
Conceded · 32
9%
25%
19%
12%
16%
19%
48%
Scored first
56%
16%
Goals after 75'
26%
Scored first: Fiorentina 15 of 31, Atalanta 18 of 32 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Serie A 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
23%37%40%
Leading 8
Level 13
Trailing 14
1.06
points per game
At half-time
75%
6 of 8
Led at HT, won
29%
4 of 14
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 152nd 23
At half-time
37%37%26%
Leading 13
Level 13
Trailing 9
1.49
points per game
At half-time
92%
12 of 13
Led at HT, won
44%
4 of 9
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 222nd 25
6
Points won from losing positions in 20 · 14 games
8
24
Points dropped from winning positions in 18 · 19 games
10
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Serie A 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
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