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29 Oct 2026-7:45 pm
Stats Prediction
Result probability
17%
27%
56%
Fiorentina 17%
Draw 27%
Atalanta 56%
0.6 – 1.4
goals per side
Expected Goals
0-1
18% chance
Most Likely Score
33%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
35%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
Fiorentina · at home
Atalanta · all games
0.67
Goals scored per game
1.00
2.00
Goals conceded per game
1.40
0.45x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
0.70x
1.41x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.95x
Average: 1.48 home goals and 1.42 away goals per game in Serie A 2026-2027
Based on 5 + 5 Serie A 2026-2027 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-3-3
vs Napoli (H) 1-1 · 20 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-3-3
vs Juventus (A) 2-0 · 20 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings
40%
10%
50%
Fiorentina wins 4
Draws 1
Atalanta wins 5
Goals 12 (1.20 per game)
Goals 16 (1.60 per game)
70%
7
of 10
Over 1.5 Goals
50%
5
of 10
Over 2.5 Goals
30%
3
of 10
Over 3.5 Goals
50%
5
of 10
Both Teams Scored
20%
2
of 10
Fiorentina Clean Sheets
30%
3
of 10
Atalanta Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 10 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
D
W
L
L
L
0.80
1-1-3
PPG Overall
0.33
0-1-2
PPG at Home
1.50
1-0-1
PPG Away
Venue form: Fiorentina at home 0.33 vs Atalanta away 0.00 points per game
Rest & Schedule
39
days rest
Fiorentina 1-1 Napoli
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
39
days rest
Juventus 2-0 Atalanta
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
5
3
2
Win %
20%
0%
50%
Goals per game
3.60
2.67
5.00
Scored
1.20
0.67
2.00
Conceded
2.40
2.00
3.00
Both teams scored
60%
67%
50%
Clean sheets
0%
0%
0%
Failed to score
40%
33%
50%
xG
1.72
1.65
1.83
xGA
1.33
1.03
1.78
Overall
Home
Away
Played
5
3
2
Win %
40%
67%
0%
Goals per game
2.40
2.33
2.50
Scored
1.00
1.33
0.50
Conceded
1.40
1.00
2.00
Both teams scored
60%
67%
50%
Clean sheets
20%
33%
0%
Failed to score
20%
0%
50%
xG
0.81
0.92
0.65
xGA
1.87
1.69
2.14
Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Fiorentina
FIO
Atalanta
ATA
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
100% 5/5
100% 5/5
100%
–
Over 1.5
100% 5/5
80% 4/5
90%
82%
Over 2.5
80% 4/5
60% 3/5
70%
54%
Over 3.5
40% 2/5
0% 0/5
20%
28%
Over 4.5
20% 1/5
0% 0/5
10%
–
Under 2.5
20% 1/5
40% 2/5
30%
46%
Both teams score
BTTS
60% 3/5
60% 3/5
60%
58%
BTTS & win
20% 1/5
20% 1/5
20%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
40% 2/5
60% 3/5
50%
–
Fiorentina
FIO
Atalanta
ATA
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
80% 4/5
60% 3/5
70%
–
Over 1.5
40% 2/5
20% 1/5
30%
–
Over 2.5
20% 1/5
0% 0/5
10%
–
BTTS
20% 1/5
20% 1/5
20%
–
% of each club's games · League = Serie A 2026-2027 (50 games, 2.90 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
0.67 at home
0.50 away
Fiorentina scored 2 in 3 home games
Atalanta scored 1 in 2 away games
Fiorentina
FIO
Atalanta
ATA
Scored over 0.5
60% 3/5
80% 4/5
Scored over 1.5
20% 1/5
20% 1/5
Scored over 2.5
20% 1/5
0% 0/5
Failed to score
40% 2/5
20% 1/5
Goals conceded per game at this venue
2.00 at home
2.00 away
Fiorentina conceded 6 in 3 home games
Atalanta conceded 4 in 2 away games
Fiorentina
FIO
Atalanta
ATA
Conceded over 0.5
100% 5/5
80% 4/5
Conceded over 1.5
80% 4/5
60% 3/5
Conceded over 2.5
40% 2/5
0% 0/5
Clean sheets
0% 0/5
20% 1/5
Streaks
2
Unbeaten last loss 3 games ago
5
Conceded all 5 this season
3
Scored in a row
3
Both teams scored in a row
3
Lost in a row
3
Conceded in a row
2
Longest win run this season
Match Totals
Fiorentina
FIO
Atalanta
ATA
League
Corners
Corners won
4.40
2.80
–
Corners conceded
3.80
5.20
–
Match total
8.20
8.00
9.50
Over 8.5
40% 2/5
40% 2/5
–
Over 9.5
20% 1/5
20% 1/5
–
Over 10.5
20% 1/5
20% 1/5
–
Cards
Cards
1.80
1.00
–
Opponent cards
1.40
0.20
–
Match total
3.20
1.20
3.26
Over 3.5
40% 2/5
0% 0/5
–
Over 4.5
20% 1/5
0% 0/5
–
Shots
Shots
16.80
11.80
–
Opponent shots
11.80
19.20
–
Match total
28.60
31.00
29.14
Shots on target
On target
5.60
3.40
–
Opponent on target
5.20
6.20
–
Match total
10.80
9.60
–
Fouls
Fouls
11.00
9.60
–
Opponent fouls
13.00
10.00
–
Match total
24.00
19.60
–
Offsides
Offsides
1.00
1.00
–
Opponent offsides
1.20
3.00
–
Match total
2.20
4.00
–
Possession
All games
43%
48%
–
Home games
47%
53%
–
Away games
38%
41%
–
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Serie A 2026-2027 (50 games) · Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Fiorentina
Scored · 6
0%
33%
0%
33%
17%
17%
Conceded · 12
0%
33%
8%
17%
17%
25%
Atalanta
Scored · 5
20%
0%
20%
20%
20%
20%
Conceded · 7
0%
29%
0%
14%
14%
43%
20%
Scored first
60%
17%
Goals after 75'
20%
Scored first: Fiorentina 1 of 5, Atalanta 3 of 5 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
20%20%60%
Leading 1
Level 1
Trailing 3
0.80
points per game
At half-time
100%
1 of 1
Led at HT, won
33%
1 of 3
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 22nd 4
At half-time
20%60%20%
Leading 1
Level 3
Trailing 1
1.20
points per game
At half-time
100%
1 of 1
Led at HT, won
0%
0 of 1
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 22nd 3
4
Points won from losing positions in 5 · 3 games
0
3
Points dropped from winning positions in 2 · 3 games
3
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
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