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10 Jan 2027-5:30 pm
days
hours
minutes
seconds
Stats Prediction
Result probability
23%
35%
42%
Fiorentina 23%
Draw 35%
Lecce 42%
0.6 – 0.9
goals per side
Expected Goals
0-0
21% chance
Most Likely Score
20%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
27%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
Fiorentina · at home
Lecce · away
0.67
Goals scored per game
0.67
2.00
Goals conceded per game
1.33
0.45x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
0.47x
1.41x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.90x
Average: 1.48 home goals and 1.42 away goals per game in Serie A 2026-2027
Based on 5 + 5 Serie A 2026-2027 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-3-3
vs Napoli (H) 1-1 · 20 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-3-3
vs AC Milan (A) 3-0 · 20 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings
40%
30%
30%
Fiorentina wins 4
Draws 3
Lecce wins 3
Goals 17 (1.70 per game)
Goals 10 (1.00 per game)
60%
6
of 10
Over 1.5 Goals
40%
4
of 10
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
4
of 10
Over 3.5 Goals
50%
5
of 10
Both Teams Scored
30%
3
of 10
Fiorentina Clean Sheets
20%
2
of 10
Lecce Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 10 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
D
W
L
L
L
0.80
1-1-3
PPG Overall
0.33
0-1-2
PPG at Home
1.50
1-0-1
PPG Away
Venue form: Lecce away +203% on points per game vs Fiorentina at home (1.00 vs 0.33)
Rest & Schedule
112
days rest
Fiorentina 1-1 Napoli
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
112
days rest
AC Milan 3-0 Lecce
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
5
3
2
Win %
20%
0%
50%
Goals per game
3.60
2.67
5.00
Scored
1.20
0.67
2.00
Conceded
2.40
2.00
3.00
Both teams scored
60%
67%
50%
Clean sheets
0%
0%
0%
Failed to score
40%
33%
50%
xG
1.72
1.65
1.83
xGA
1.33
1.03
1.78
Overall
Home
Away
Played
5
2
3
Win %
40%
50%
33%
Goals per game
3.00
4.50
2.00
Scored
1.00
1.50
0.67
Conceded
2.00
3.00
1.33
Both teams scored
20%
50%
0%
Clean sheets
20%
0%
33%
Failed to score
60%
50%
67%
xG
1.06
0.94
1.14
xGA
2.38
3.03
1.95
Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Fiorentina
FIO
Lecce
LEC
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
100% 5/5
100% 5/5
100%
–
Over 1.5
100% 5/5
80% 4/5
90%
82%
Over 2.5
80% 4/5
60% 3/5
70%
54%
Over 3.5
40% 2/5
40% 2/5
40%
28%
Over 4.5
20% 1/5
20% 1/5
20%
–
Under 2.5
20% 1/5
40% 2/5
30%
46%
Both teams score
BTTS
60% 3/5
20% 1/5
40%
58%
BTTS & win
20% 1/5
20% 1/5
20%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
40% 2/5
20% 1/5
30%
–
Fiorentina
FIO
Lecce
LEC
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
80% 4/5
80% 4/5
80%
–
Over 1.5
40% 2/5
40% 2/5
40%
–
Over 2.5
20% 1/5
40% 2/5
30%
–
BTTS
20% 1/5
20% 1/5
20%
–
% of each club's games · League = Serie A 2026-2027 (50 games, 2.90 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
0.67 at home
0.67 away
Fiorentina scored 2 in 3 home games
Lecce scored 2 in 3 away games
Fiorentina
FIO
Lecce
LEC
Scored over 0.5
60% 3/5
40% 2/5
Scored over 1.5
20% 1/5
40% 2/5
Scored over 2.5
20% 1/5
20% 1/5
Failed to score
40% 2/5
60% 3/5
Goals conceded per game at this venue
2.00 at home
1.33 away
Fiorentina conceded 6 in 3 home games
Lecce conceded 4 in 3 away games
Fiorentina
FIO
Lecce
LEC
Conceded over 0.5
100% 5/5
80% 4/5
Conceded over 1.5
80% 4/5
60% 3/5
Conceded over 2.5
40% 2/5
40% 2/5
Clean sheets
0% 0/5
20% 1/5
Streaks
2
Unbeaten last loss 3 games ago
5
Conceded all 5 this season
3
Scored in a row
3
Both teams scored in a row
1
Lost last game
4
Conceded in a row
2
Over 2.5 goals in a row
Match Totals
Fiorentina
FIO
Lecce
LEC
League
Corners
Corners won
4.40
3.40
–
Corners conceded
3.80
4.20
–
Match total
8.20
7.60
9.50
Over 8.5
40% 2/5
40% 2/5
–
Over 9.5
20% 1/5
40% 2/5
–
Over 10.5
20% 1/5
20% 1/5
–
Cards
Cards
1.80
2.00
–
Opponent cards
1.40
0.60
–
Match total
3.20
2.60
3.26
Over 3.5
40% 2/5
40% 2/5
–
Over 4.5
20% 1/5
0% 0/5
–
Shots
Shots
16.80
8.40
–
Opponent shots
11.80
16.60
–
Match total
28.60
25.00
29.14
Shots on target
On target
5.60
3.40
–
Opponent on target
5.20
7.80
–
Match total
10.80
11.20
–
Fouls
Fouls
11.00
12.60
–
Opponent fouls
13.00
9.40
–
Match total
24.00
22.00
–
Offsides
Offsides
1.00
0.80
–
Opponent offsides
1.20
4.80
–
Match total
2.20
5.60
–
Possession
All games
43%
39%
–
Home games
47%
38%
–
Away games
38%
39%
–
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Serie A 2026-2027 (50 games) · Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Fiorentina
Scored · 6
0%
33%
0%
33%
17%
17%
Conceded · 12
0%
33%
8%
17%
17%
25%
Lecce
Scored · 5
40%
20%
0%
20%
0%
20%
Conceded · 10
20%
40%
0%
0%
30%
10%
20%
Scored first
40%
17%
Goals after 75'
20%
Scored first: Fiorentina 1 of 5, Lecce 2 of 5 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
20%20%60%
Leading 1
Level 1
Trailing 3
0.80
points per game
At half-time
100%
1 of 1
Led at HT, won
33%
1 of 3
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 22nd 4
At half-time
20%20%60%
Leading 1
Level 1
Trailing 3
0.80
points per game
At half-time
100%
1 of 1
Led at HT, won
0%
0 of 3
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 32nd 2
4
Points won from losing positions in 5 · 3 games
0
3
Points dropped from winning positions in 2 · 2 games
0
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
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