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10 Oct 2026-1:30 pm
Stats Prediction
Result probability
35%
26%
39%
FSV Mainz 05 35%
Draw 26%
Bayer Leverkusen 39%
1.3 – 1.4
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-1
12% chance
Most Likely Score
52%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
56%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
FSV Mainz 05 · at home
Bayer Leverkusen · away
1.40
Goals scored per game
1.00
2.20
Goals conceded per game
1.80
0.74x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
0.65x
1.42x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.95x
Average: 1.90 home goals and 1.55 away goals per game in both clubs' games
Not enough games this season (FSV Mainz 05: 4, Bayer Leverkusen: 4), so these stats use each club's last 10 games in all competitions.
Based on 10 + 10 recent games in all competitions (attack × defence × both clubs' average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
3-5-2
vs Borussia Monchengladbach (A) 3-4 · 19 Sep 2026
Substitutes
47
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs RB Leipzig (H) 2-0 · 20 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings
20%
10%
70%
FSV Mainz 05 wins 2
Draws 1
Bayer Leverkusen wins 7
Goals 9 (0.90 per game)
Goals 19 (1.90 per game)
50%
5
of 10
Over 1.5 Goals
50%
5
of 10
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
4
of 10
Over 3.5 Goals
40%
4
of 10
Both Teams Scored
0%
0
of 10
FSV Mainz 05 Clean Sheets
60%
6
of 10
Bayer Leverkusen Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 10 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Opponent
FSV Mainz 05
FSV
Bayer Leverkusen
BAY
Points on these 2
3 of 6 · 1.50 per game
2 of 6 · 1.00 per game
Not enough games this season (FSV Mainz 05: 4, Bayer Leverkusen: 4), so these stats use each club's last 10 games in all competitions.
Form & Points per Game
W
L
W
D
D
W
L
W
D
D
L
L
L
L
W
1.10
3-2-5
PPG Overall
0.80
1-1-3
PPG at Home
1.40
2-1-2
PPG Away
W
D
W
L
L
W
D
W
L
L
D
D
L
D
W
1.30
3-4-3
PPG Overall
2.00
3-1-1
PPG at Home
0.60
0-3-2
PPG Away
Venue form: FSV Mainz 05 at home +33% on points per game vs Bayer Leverkusen away (0.80 vs 0.60)
Not enough games this season (FSV Mainz 05: 4, Bayer Leverkusen: 4), so these stats use each club's last 10 games in all competitions.
Rest & Schedule
21
days rest
Borussia Monchengladbach 3-4 FSV Mainz 05
0 games in 14 days · 2 in 30 days
20
days rest
Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 RB Leipzig
0 games in 14 days · 2 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
10
5
5
Win %
30%
20%
40%
Goals per game
4.00
3.60
4.40
Scored
1.80
1.40
2.20
Conceded
2.20
2.20
2.20
Both teams scored
60%
80%
40%
Clean sheets
20%
20%
20%
Failed to score
30%
20%
40%
Overall
Home
Away
Played
10
5
5
Win %
30%
60%
0%
Goals per game
2.90
3.00
2.80
Scored
1.60
2.20
1.00
Conceded
1.30
0.80
1.80
Both teams scored
50%
40%
60%
Clean sheets
40%
60%
20%
Failed to score
20%
0%
40%
Not enough games this season (FSV Mainz 05: 4, Bayer Leverkusen: 4), so these stats use each club's last 10 games in all competitions.
Match Goals
FSV Mainz 05
FSV
Bayer Leverkusen
BAY
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
90% 9/10
90% 9/10
90%
–
Over 1.5
90% 9/10
90% 9/10
90%
86%
Over 2.5
90% 9/10
60% 6/10
75%
78%
Over 3.5
70% 7/10
40% 4/10
55%
61%
Over 4.5
40% 4/10
10% 1/10
25%
–
Under 2.5
10% 1/10
40% 4/10
25%
22%
Both teams score
BTTS
60% 6/10
50% 5/10
55%
58%
BTTS & win
20% 2/10
0% 0/10
10%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
60% 6/10
40% 4/10
50%
–
FSV Mainz 05
FSV
Bayer Leverkusen
BAY
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
90% 9/10
80% 8/10
85%
–
Over 1.5
70% 7/10
50% 5/10
60%
–
Over 2.5
20% 2/10
10% 1/10
15%
–
BTTS
20% 2/10
10% 1/10
15%
–
Not enough games this season (FSV Mainz 05: 4, Bayer Leverkusen: 4), so these stats use each club's last 10 games in all competitions.
% of each club's games · League = Bundesliga 2026-2027 (36 games, 3.81 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.40 at home
1.00 away
FSV Mainz 05 scored 7 in 5 home games
Bayer Leverkusen scored 5 in 5 away games
FSV Mainz 05
FSV
Bayer Leverkusen
BAY
Scored over 0.5
70% 7/10
80% 8/10
Scored over 1.5
50% 5/10
60% 6/10
Scored over 2.5
30% 3/10
10% 1/10
Failed to score
30% 3/10
20% 2/10
Goals conceded per game at this venue
2.20 at home
1.80 away
FSV Mainz 05 conceded 11 in 5 home games
Bayer Leverkusen conceded 9 in 5 away games
FSV Mainz 05
FSV
Bayer Leverkusen
BAY
Conceded over 0.5
80% 8/10
60% 6/10
Conceded over 1.5
70% 7/10
50% 5/10
Conceded over 2.5
60% 6/10
20% 2/10
Clean sheets
20% 2/10
40% 4/10
Not enough games this season (FSV Mainz 05: 4, Bayer Leverkusen: 4), so these stats use each club's last 10 games in all competitions.
Streaks
1
Won last game
3
Scored in a row
3
Over 2.5 goals in a row
2
Conceded in a row
2
Both teams scored in a row
3
Unbeaten last loss 4 games ago
4
Scored in a row
Not enough games this season (FSV Mainz 05: 4, Bayer Leverkusen: 4), so these stats use each club's last 10 games in all competitions.
Match Totals
FSV Mainz 05
FSV
Bayer Leverkusen
BAY
League
Corners
Corners won
4.80
6.56
–
Corners conceded
4.70
3.56
–
Match total
9.50
10.11
10.86
Over 8.5
80% 8/10
67% 6/9
–
Over 9.5
30% 3/10
56% 5/9
–
Over 10.5
20% 2/10
44% 4/9
–
Cards
Cards
2.50
2.80
–
Opponent cards
1.50
3.20
–
Match total
4.00
6.00
3.64
Over 3.5
60% 6/10
80% 8/10
–
Over 4.5
10% 1/10
70% 7/10
–
Shots
Shots
13.20
15.50
–
Opponent shots
13.70
11.00
–
Match total
26.90
26.50
31.03
Shots on target
On target
4.70
4.20
–
Opponent on target
4.90
3.80
–
Match total
9.60
8.00
–
Fouls
Fouls
12.80
11.50
–
Opponent fouls
8.70
10.80
–
Match total
21.50
22.30
–
Offsides
Offsides
2.00
1.25
–
Opponent offsides
1.71
1.38
–
Match total
3.71
2.63
–
Possession
All games
45%
55%
–
Home games
47%
51%
–
Away games
44%
58%
–
Not enough games this season (FSV Mainz 05: 4, Bayer Leverkusen: 4), so these stats use each club's last 10 games in all competitions.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Bundesliga 2026-2027 (36 games)
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
FSV Mainz 05
Scored · 18
6%
22%
11%
11%
17%
33%
Conceded · 22
18%
18%
14%
18%
9%
23%
Bayer Leverkusen
Scored · 16
13%
25%
13%
12%
12%
25%
Conceded · 13
23%
8%
15%
39%
0%
15%
33%
Scored first
56%
33%
Goals after 75'
25%
Not enough games this season (FSV Mainz 05: 4, Bayer Leverkusen: 4), so these stats use each club's last 10 games in all competitions.
Scored first: FSV Mainz 05 3 of 9, Bayer Leverkusen 5 of 9 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period)
Halves & Game State
At half-time
30%20%50%
Leading 3
Level 2
Trailing 5
1.10
points per game
At half-time
67%
2 of 3
Led at HT, won
20%
1 of 5
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 72nd 11
At half-time
50%20%30%
Leading 5
Level 2
Trailing 3
1.70
points per game
At half-time
60%
3 of 5
Led at HT, won
0%
0 of 3
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 82nd 8
6
Points won from losing positions in 7 · 5 games
2
5
Points dropped from winning positions in 5 · 5 games
4
Not enough games this season (FSV Mainz 05: 4, Bayer Leverkusen: 4), so these stats use each club's last 10 games in all competitions.
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games)
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Not enough games this season (FSV Mainz 05: 4, Bayer Leverkusen: 4), so these stats use each club's last 10 games in all competitions.
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Not enough games this season (FSV Mainz 05: 4, Bayer Leverkusen: 4), so these stats use each club's last 10 games in all competitions.
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