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17 May 2026-1:00 pm
Stats Prediction
Result probability
14%
23%
63%
Genoa 14%
Draw 23%
AC Milan 63%
0.7 – 1.7
goals per side
Expected Goals
0-1
16% chance
Most Likely Score
42%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
39%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
Genoa · at home
AC Milan · away
1.17
Goals scored per game
1.44
1.33
Goals conceded per game
0.72
0.91x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.28x
1.19x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.56x
Average: 1.28 home goals and 1.12 away goals per game in Serie A 2025-2026
Based on 35 + 35 Serie A 2025-2026 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
3-4-2-1
vs Atalanta (A) 0-0 · 2 May 2026
Substitutes
Last game lineup
3-5-2
vs Sassuolo (A) 2-0 · 3 May 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings
10%
30%
60%
Genoa wins 1
Draws 3
AC Milan wins 6
Goals 8 (0.80 per game)
Goals 16 (1.60 per game)
80%
8
of 10
Over 1.5 Goals
60%
6
of 10
Over 2.5 Goals
10%
1
of 10
Over 3.5 Goals
60%
6
of 10
Both Teams Scored
10%
1
of 10
Genoa Clean Sheets
40%
4
of 10
AC Milan Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 10 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
D
L
W
W
L
D
L
W
W
L
L
W
W
L
W
1.14
10-10-15
PPG Overall
1.22
6-4-8
PPG at Home
1.06
4-6-7
PPG Away
L
D
W
L
L
L
D
W
L
L
W
L
W
W
L
1.91
19-10-6
PPG Overall
1.88
9-5-3
PPG at Home
1.94
10-5-3
PPG Away
Venue form: AC Milan away +59% on points per game vs Genoa at home (1.94 vs 1.22)
Rest & Schedule
15
days rest
Atalanta 0-0 Genoa
0 games in 14 days · 3 in 30 days
14
days rest
Sassuolo 2-0 AC Milan
1 game in 14 days · 3 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
35
18
17
Win %
29%
33%
24%
Goals per game
2.51
2.50
2.53
Scored
1.14
1.17
1.12
Conceded
1.37
1.33
1.41
Both teams scored
54%
44%
65%
Clean sheets
23%
22%
24%
Failed to score
37%
44%
29%
xG
1.15
1.18
1.13
xGA
1.27
1.14
1.41
Overall
Home
Away
Played
35
17
18
Win %
54%
53%
56%
Goals per game
2.20
2.24
2.17
Scored
1.37
1.29
1.44
Conceded
0.83
0.94
0.72
Both teams scored
43%
47%
39%
Clean sheets
43%
41%
44%
Failed to score
20%
18%
22%
xG
1.53
1.62
1.44
xGA
1.03
1.00
1.06
Serie A 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Genoa
GEN
AC Milan
AC
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
86% 30/35
94% 33/35
90%
–
Over 1.5
80% 28/35
63% 22/35
71%
70%
Over 2.5
54% 19/35
40% 14/35
47%
45%
Over 3.5
17% 6/35
17% 6/35
17%
22%
Over 4.5
11% 4/35
6% 2/35
9%
–
Under 2.5
46% 16/35
60% 21/35
53%
55%
Both teams score
BTTS
54% 19/35
43% 15/35
49%
45%
BTTS & win
20% 7/35
17% 6/35
19%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
46% 16/35
29% 10/35
37%
–
Genoa
GEN
AC Milan
AC
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
66% 23/35
60% 21/35
63%
–
Over 1.5
31% 11/35
29% 10/35
30%
–
Over 2.5
9% 3/35
6% 2/35
7%
–
BTTS
17% 6/35
20% 7/35
19%
–
% of each club's games · League = Serie A 2025-2026 (354 games, 2.41 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.17 at home
1.44 away
Genoa scored 21 in 18 home games
AC Milan scored 26 in 18 away games
Genoa
GEN
AC Milan
AC
Scored over 0.5
63% 22/35
80% 28/35
Scored over 1.5
40% 14/35
40% 14/35
Scored over 2.5
11% 4/35
17% 6/35
Failed to score
37% 13/35
20% 7/35
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.33 at home
0.72 away
Genoa conceded 24 in 18 home games
AC Milan conceded 13 in 18 away games
Genoa
GEN
AC Milan
AC
Conceded over 0.5
77% 27/35
57% 20/35
Conceded over 1.5
46% 16/35
23% 8/35
Conceded over 2.5
14% 5/35
3% 1/35
Clean sheets
23% 8/35
43% 15/35
Streaks
Match Totals
Genoa
GEN
AC Milan
AC
League
Corners
Corners won
3.45
4.47
–
Corners conceded
5.35
4.34
–
Match total
8.81
8.81
8.83
Over 8.5
48% 15/31
50% 16/32
–
Over 9.5
39% 12/31
44% 14/32
–
Over 10.5
16% 5/31
28% 9/32
–
Cards
Cards
1.80
1.66
–
Opponent cards
2.66
2.09
–
Match total
4.46
3.74
3.88
Over 3.5
77% 27/35
54% 19/35
–
Over 4.5
43% 15/35
31% 11/35
–
Shots
Shots
11.29
13.03
–
Opponent shots
12.97
11.06
–
Match total
24.26
24.09
24.38
Shots on target
On target
3.79
4.18
–
Opponent on target
4.55
3.70
–
Match total
8.33
7.88
–
Fouls
Fouls
12.43
9.94
–
Opponent fouls
14.89
11.49
–
Match total
27.31
21.43
–
Possession
All games
48%
52%
–
Home games
51%
54%
–
Away games
45%
50%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Serie A 2025-2026 (354 games) · Serie A 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Genoa
Scored · 40
13%
12%
15%
10%
20%
30%
Conceded · 48
15%
17%
14%
19%
21%
14%
AC Milan
Scored · 48
8%
6%
25%
25%
13%
23%
Conceded · 29
14%
17%
17%
14%
21%
17%
50%
Scored first
61%
30%
Goals after 75'
23%
Scored first: Genoa 15 of 30, AC Milan 20 of 33 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Serie A 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
23%49%29%
Leading 8
Level 17
Trailing 10
1.17
points per game
At half-time
63%
5 of 8
Led at HT, won
20%
2 of 10
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 162nd 24
At half-time
29%54%17%
Leading 10
Level 19
Trailing 6
1.40
points per game
At half-time
80%
8 of 10
Led at HT, won
50%
3 of 6
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 192nd 29
12
Points won from losing positions in 21 · 14 games
14
20
Points dropped from winning positions in 18 · 24 games
10
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Serie A 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Latest Games
