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10 May 2026-7:00 pm
Stats Prediction
Result probability
38%
28%
34%
LE Havre 38%
Draw 28%
Marseille 34%
1.2 – 1.1
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-1
13% chance
Most Likely Score
42%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
48%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
HAV · at home
MAR · away
1.25
Goals scored per game
1.31
1.06
Goals conceded per game
1.56
0.77x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.08x
0.87x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.97x
Average: 1.62 home goals and 1.22 away goals per game in Ligue 1 2025-2026
Based on 32 + 32 Ligue 1 2025-2026 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Lille (A) 1-1 · 3 May 2026
13
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Nantes (A) 3-0 · 2 May 2026
6
Substitutes
92
72
78
35
71
14
Head to Head
Last 2 meetings
100%
LE Havre wins 0
Draws 0
Marseille wins 2
Goals 2 (1.00 per game)
Goals 9 (4.50 per game)
100%
2
of 2
Over 1.5 Goals
100%
2
of 2
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
1
of 2
Over 3.5 Goals
50%
1
of 2
Both Teams Scored
0%
0
of 2
LE Havre Clean Sheets
50%
1
of 2
Marseille Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 2 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
L
D
L
L
L
1.00
6-14-12
PPG Overall
1.44
5-8-3
PPG at Home
0.56
1-6-9
PPG Away
L
D
L
W
L
L
D
L
W
L
L
W
W
W
L
1.66
16-5-11
PPG Overall
2.13
10-4-2
PPG at Home
1.19
6-1-9
PPG Away
Venue form: LE Havre at home +21% on points per game vs Marseille away (1.44 vs 1.19)
Rest & Schedule
7
days rest
Lille 1-1 LE Havre
1 game in 14 days · 4 in 30 days
8
days rest
Nantes 3-0 Marseille
1 game in 14 days · 4 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
32
16
16
Win %
19%
31%
6%
Goals per game
2.28
2.31
2.25
Scored
0.94
1.25
0.63
Conceded
1.34
1.06
1.63
Both teams scored
53%
63%
44%
Clean sheets
22%
25%
19%
Failed to score
41%
31%
50%
xG
1.08
1.20
0.96
xGA
1.49
1.20
1.78
Overall
Home
Away
Played
32
16
16
Win %
50%
63%
38%
Goals per game
3.22
3.56
2.88
Scored
1.84
2.38
1.31
Conceded
1.38
1.19
1.56
Both teams scored
50%
63%
38%
Clean sheets
25%
31%
19%
Failed to score
25%
6%
44%
xG
1.79
1.97
1.62
xGA
1.28
1.07
1.50
Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
LE Havre
HAV
Marseille
MAR
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
84% 27/32
100% 32/32
92%
–
Over 1.5
63% 20/32
75% 24/32
69%
72%
Over 2.5
34% 11/32
63% 20/32
48%
53%
Over 3.5
19% 6/32
41% 13/32
30%
33%
Over 4.5
9% 3/32
19% 6/32
14%
–
Under 2.5
66% 21/32
38% 12/32
52%
47%
Both teams score
BTTS
53% 17/32
50% 16/32
52%
51%
BTTS & win
13% 4/32
25% 8/32
19%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
31% 10/32
47% 15/32
39%
–
LE Havre
HAV
Marseille
MAR
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
66% 21/32
72% 23/32
69%
–
Over 1.5
34% 11/32
31% 10/32
33%
–
Over 2.5
9% 3/32
9% 3/32
9%
–
BTTS
28% 9/32
13% 4/32
20%
–
% of each club's games · League = Ligue 1 2025-2026 (287 games, 2.84 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.25 at home
1.31 away
LE Havre scored 20 in 16 home games
Marseille scored 21 in 16 away games
LE Havre
HAV
Marseille
MAR
Scored over 0.5
59% 19/32
75% 24/32
Scored over 1.5
25% 8/32
47% 15/32
Scored over 2.5
6% 2/32
31% 10/32
Failed to score
41% 13/32
25% 8/32
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.06 at home
1.56 away
LE Havre conceded 17 in 16 home games
Marseille conceded 25 in 16 away games
LE Havre
HAV
Marseille
MAR
Conceded over 0.5
78% 25/32
75% 24/32
Conceded over 1.5
28% 9/32
50% 16/32
Conceded over 2.5
16% 5/32
6% 2/32
Clean sheets
22% 7/32
25% 8/32
Streaks
Match Totals
LE Havre
HAV
Marseille
MAR
League
Corners
Corners won
4.43
5.13
–
Corners conceded
5.00
3.60
–
Match total
9.43
8.73
9.49
Over 8.5
60% 18/30
43% 13/30
–
Over 9.5
47% 14/30
37% 11/30
–
Over 10.5
37% 11/30
23% 7/30
–
Cards
Cards
2.03
2.47
–
Opponent cards
2.13
1.59
–
Match total
4.16
4.06
3.97
Over 3.5
69% 22/32
69% 22/32
–
Over 4.5
34% 11/32
44% 14/32
–
Shots
Shots
10.84
14.75
–
Opponent shots
12.88
10.03
–
Match total
23.72
24.78
24.23
Shots on target
On target
3.77
5.56
–
Opponent on target
4.40
3.97
–
Match total
8.17
9.53
–
Fouls
Fouls
13.34
12.38
–
Opponent fouls
13.84
10.53
–
Match total
27.19
22.91
–
Possession
All games
47%
57%
–
Home games
47%
59%
–
Away games
47%
56%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Ligue 1 2025-2026 (287 games) · Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
LE Havre
Scored · 30
13%
13%
17%
17%
20%
20%
Conceded · 43
14%
14%
25%
12%
14%
21%
Marseille
Scored · 59
12%
17%
12%
13%
17%
29%
Conceded · 44
11%
14%
7%
23%
13%
32%
41%
Scored first
56%
20%
Goals after 75'
29%
Scored first: LE Havre 11 of 27, Marseille 18 of 32 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
9%56%34%
Leading 3
Level 18
Trailing 11
0.84
points per game
At half-time
67%
2 of 3
Led at HT, won
27%
3 of 11
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 132nd 17
At half-time
41%34%25%
Leading 13
Level 11
Trailing 8
1.56
points per game
At half-time
77%
10 of 13
Led at HT, won
38%
3 of 8
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 242nd 35
5
Points won from losing positions in 17 · 16 games
11
11
Points dropped from winning positions in 11 · 23 games
16
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Latest Games
