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25 Apr 2027-4:30 pm
days
hours
minutes
seconds
Stats Prediction
Result probability
13%
17%
70%
Lecce 13%
Draw 17%
AC Milan 70%
0.9 – 2.3
goals per side
Expected Goals
0-2
11% chance
Most Likely Score
63%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
54%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
Lecce · all games
AC Milan · away
1.00
Goals scored per game
1.67
2.00
Goals conceded per game
1.33
0.68x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.17x
1.41x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.90x
Average: 1.48 home goals and 1.42 away goals per game in Serie A 2026-2027
Based on 5 + 5 Serie A 2026-2027 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-3-3
vs AC Milan (A) 3-0 · 20 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Last game lineup
3-4-2-1
vs Lecce (H) 3-0 · 20 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings
30%
70%
Lecce wins 0
Draws 3
AC Milan wins 7
Goals 9 (0.90 per game)
Goals 24 (2.40 per game)
90%
9
of 10
Over 1.5 Goals
70%
7
of 10
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
5
of 10
Over 3.5 Goals
50%
5
of 10
Both Teams Scored
0%
0
of 10
Lecce Clean Sheets
50%
5
of 10
AC Milan Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 10 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
L
W
L
L
W
1.20
2-0-3
PPG Overall
1.50
1-0-1
PPG at Home
1.00
1-0-2
PPG Away
Venue form: AC Milan away +11% on points per game vs Lecce at home (1.67 vs 1.50)
Rest & Schedule
217
days rest
AC Milan 3-0 Lecce
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
217
days rest
AC Milan 3-0 Lecce
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
5
2
3
Win %
40%
50%
33%
Goals per game
3.00
4.50
2.00
Scored
1.00
1.50
0.67
Conceded
2.00
3.00
1.33
Both teams scored
20%
50%
0%
Clean sheets
20%
0%
33%
Failed to score
60%
50%
67%
xG
1.06
0.94
1.14
xGA
2.38
3.03
1.95
Overall
Home
Away
Played
5
2
3
Win %
60%
100%
33%
Goals per game
2.80
2.50
3.00
Scored
2.00
2.50
1.67
Conceded
0.80
0.00
1.33
Both teams scored
60%
0%
100%
Clean sheets
40%
100%
0%
Failed to score
0%
0%
0%
xG
1.58
2.20
1.17
xGA
1.18
0.51
1.63
Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Lecce
LEC
AC Milan
AC
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
100% 5/5
100% 5/5
100%
–
Over 1.5
80% 4/5
100% 5/5
90%
82%
Over 2.5
60% 3/5
60% 3/5
60%
54%
Over 3.5
40% 2/5
20% 1/5
30%
28%
Over 4.5
20% 1/5
0% 0/5
10%
–
Under 2.5
40% 2/5
40% 2/5
40%
46%
Both teams score
BTTS
20% 1/5
60% 3/5
40%
58%
BTTS & win
20% 1/5
20% 1/5
20%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
20% 1/5
40% 2/5
30%
–
Lecce
LEC
AC Milan
AC
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
80% 4/5
40% 2/5
60%
–
Over 1.5
40% 2/5
20% 1/5
30%
–
Over 2.5
40% 2/5
0% 0/5
20%
–
BTTS
20% 1/5
0% 0/5
10%
–
% of each club's games · League = Serie A 2026-2027 (50 games, 2.90 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.50 at home
1.67 away
Lecce scored 3 in 2 home games
AC Milan scored 5 in 3 away games
Lecce
LEC
AC Milan
AC
Scored over 0.5
40% 2/5
100% 5/5
Scored over 1.5
40% 2/5
80% 4/5
Scored over 2.5
20% 1/5
20% 1/5
Failed to score
60% 3/5
0% 0/5
Goals conceded per game at this venue
3.00 at home
1.33 away
Lecce conceded 6 in 2 home games
AC Milan conceded 4 in 3 away games
Lecce
LEC
AC Milan
AC
Conceded over 0.5
80% 4/5
60% 3/5
Conceded over 1.5
60% 3/5
20% 1/5
Conceded over 2.5
40% 2/5
0% 0/5
Clean sheets
20% 1/5
40% 2/5
Streaks
Match Totals
Lecce
LEC
AC Milan
AC
League
Corners
Corners won
3.40
2.80
–
Corners conceded
4.20
3.40
–
Match total
7.60
6.20
9.50
Over 8.5
40% 2/5
0% 0/5
–
Over 9.5
40% 2/5
0% 0/5
–
Over 10.5
20% 1/5
0% 0/5
–
Cards
Cards
2.00
1.60
–
Opponent cards
0.60
1.40
–
Match total
2.60
3.00
3.26
Over 3.5
40% 2/5
60% 3/5
–
Over 4.5
0% 0/5
20% 1/5
–
Shots
Shots
8.40
12.80
–
Opponent shots
16.60
9.00
–
Match total
25.00
21.80
29.14
Shots on target
On target
3.40
4.20
–
Opponent on target
7.80
3.40
–
Match total
11.20
7.60
–
Fouls
Fouls
12.60
10.20
–
Opponent fouls
9.40
12.20
–
Match total
22.00
22.40
–
Offsides
Offsides
0.80
1.40
–
Opponent offsides
4.80
2.80
–
Match total
5.60
4.20
–
Possession
All games
39%
61%
–
Home games
38%
64%
–
Away games
39%
59%
–
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Serie A 2026-2027 (50 games) · Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Lecce
Scored · 5
40%
20%
0%
20%
0%
20%
Conceded · 10
20%
40%
0%
0%
30%
10%
AC Milan
Scored · 10
10%
0%
0%
0%
80%
10%
Conceded · 4
25%
0%
25%
0%
0%
50%
40%
Scored first
80%
20%
Goals after 75'
10%
Scored first: Lecce 2 of 5, AC Milan 4 of 5 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
20%20%60%
Leading 1
Level 1
Trailing 3
0.80
points per game
At half-time
100%
1 of 1
Led at HT, won
0%
0 of 3
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 32nd 2
At half-time
20%60%20%
Leading 1
Level 3
Trailing 1
1.20
points per game
At half-time
100%
1 of 1
Led at HT, won
100%
1 of 1
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 12nd 9
0
Points won from losing positions in 3 · 1 games
1
0
Points dropped from winning positions in 2 · 4 games
2
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Latest Games
