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17 Jan 2027-4:00 pm
days
hours
minutes
seconds
Stats Prediction
Result probability
14%
26%
60%
Malaga 14%
Draw 26%
Real Madrid 60%
0.6 – 1.5
goals per side
Expected Goals
0-1
19% chance
Most Likely Score
35%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
34%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
MAL · at home
Real Madrid · away
0.67
Goals scored per game
1.50
1.33
Goals conceded per game
1.50
0.39x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.13x
1.00x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.88x
Average: 1.71 home goals and 1.33 away goals per game in La Liga 2026-2027
Based on 7 + 7 La Liga 2026-2027 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-1-4-1
vs Getafe (A) 1-0 · 20 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Atletico Madrid (A) 2-1 · 20 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
L
L
D
D
L
L
L
D
D
L
D
L
0.43
0-3-4
PPG Overall
0.67
0-2-1
PPG at Home
0.25
0-1-3
PPG Away
L
W
W
L
W
L
W
W
L
W
W
W
2.14
5-0-2
PPG Overall
3.00
3-0-0
PPG at Home
1.50
2-0-2
PPG Away
Venue form: Real Madrid away +124% on points per game vs Malaga at home (1.50 vs 0.67)
Rest & Schedule
119
days rest
Getafe 1-0 Malaga
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
119
days rest
Atletico Madrid 2-1 Real Madrid
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
7
3
4
Win %
0%
0%
0%
Goals per game
2.14
2.00
2.25
Scored
0.43
0.67
0.25
Conceded
1.71
1.33
2.00
Both teams scored
43%
67%
25%
Clean sheets
14%
33%
0%
Failed to score
57%
33%
75%
xG
0.84
1.35
0.45
xGA
1.66
1.75
1.60
Overall
Home
Away
Played
7
3
4
Win %
71%
100%
50%
Goals per game
3.71
4.67
3.00
Scored
2.57
4.00
1.50
Conceded
1.14
0.67
1.50
Both teams scored
71%
67%
75%
Clean sheets
14%
33%
0%
Failed to score
14%
0%
25%
xG
2.64
2.79
2.52
xGA
1.09
0.83
1.28
La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Malaga
MAL
Real Madrid
REA
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
86% 6/7
100% 7/7
93%
–
Over 1.5
71% 5/7
86% 6/7
79%
77%
Over 2.5
29% 2/7
86% 6/7
57%
57%
Over 3.5
29% 2/7
57% 4/7
43%
39%
Over 4.5
0% 0/7
43% 3/7
21%
–
Under 2.5
71% 5/7
14% 1/7
43%
43%
Both teams score
BTTS
43% 3/7
71% 5/7
57%
58%
BTTS & win
0% 0/7
57% 4/7
29%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
14% 1/7
71% 5/7
43%
–
Malaga
MAL
Real Madrid
REA
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
57% 4/7
71% 5/7
64%
–
Over 1.5
43% 3/7
71% 5/7
57%
–
Over 2.5
29% 2/7
29% 2/7
29%
–
BTTS
29% 2/7
29% 2/7
29%
–
% of each club's games · League = La Liga 2026-2027 (69 games, 3.04 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
0.67 at home
1.50 away
Malaga scored 2 in 3 home games
Real Madrid scored 6 in 4 away games
Malaga
MAL
Real Madrid
REA
Scored over 0.5
43% 3/7
86% 6/7
Scored over 1.5
0% 0/7
71% 5/7
Scored over 2.5
0% 0/7
57% 4/7
Failed to score
57% 4/7
14% 1/7
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.33 at home
1.50 away
Malaga conceded 4 in 3 home games
Real Madrid conceded 6 in 4 away games
Malaga
MAL
Real Madrid
REA
Conceded over 0.5
86% 6/7
86% 6/7
Conceded over 1.5
43% 3/7
29% 2/7
Conceded over 2.5
29% 2/7
0% 0/7
Clean sheets
14% 1/7
14% 1/7
Streaks
7
Without a win all 7 this season
3
Conceded in a row
1
Lost last game
4
Conceded in a row
3
Scored in a row
3
Both teams scored in a row
3
Longest win run this season
Match Totals
Malaga
MAL
Real Madrid
REA
League
Corners
Corners won
5.43
6.86
–
Corners conceded
5.29
4.14
–
Match total
10.71
11.00
9.65
Over 8.5
71% 5/7
57% 4/7
–
Over 9.5
71% 5/7
57% 4/7
–
Over 10.5
57% 4/7
57% 4/7
–
Cards
Cards
2.57
1.86
–
Opponent cards
2.00
2.86
–
Match total
4.57
4.71
4.42
Over 3.5
71% 5/7
71% 5/7
–
Over 4.5
71% 5/7
71% 5/7
–
Shots
Shots
10.00
18.86
–
Opponent shots
14.86
12.71
–
Match total
24.86
31.57
26.46
Shots on target
On target
2.00
7.57
–
Opponent on target
5.71
4.43
–
Match total
7.71
12.00
–
Fouls
Fouls
12.86
8.43
–
Opponent fouls
11.71
14.29
–
Match total
24.57
22.71
–
Offsides
Offsides
1.29
1.86
–
Opponent offsides
2.14
1.14
–
Match total
3.43
3.00
–
Possession
All games
51%
52%
–
Home games
52%
54%
–
Away games
50%
51%
–
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = La Liga 2026-2027 (69 games) · La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Malaga
Scored · 3
34%
0%
33%
0%
0%
33%
Conceded · 12
0%
34%
25%
0%
8%
33%
Real Madrid
Scored · 18
11%
28%
17%
6%
5%
33%
Conceded · 8
0%
13%
13%
37%
12%
25%
17%
Scored first
71%
33%
Goals after 75'
33%
Scored first: Malaga 1 of 6, Real Madrid 5 of 7 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
57%43%
Leading 0
Level 4
Trailing 3
0.57
points per game
At half-time
–
Led at HT, won
33%
1 of 3
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 22nd 1
At half-time
43%57%
Leading 3
Level 4
Trailing 0
1.86
points per game
At half-time
100%
3 of 3
Led at HT, won
–
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 102nd 8
2
Points won from losing positions in 6 · 2 games
0
3
Points dropped from winning positions in 1 · 5 games
0
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Latest Games
