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10 May 2026-7:00 pm
Stats Prediction
Result probability
33%
22%
45%
Monaco 33%
Draw 22%
Lille 45%
1.6 – 1.9
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-1
9% chance
Most Likely Score
68%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
68%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
Monaco · at home
LIL · away
2.06
Goals scored per game
1.69
1.38
Goals conceded per game
1.25
1.28x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.38x
1.13x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.77x
Average: 1.62 home goals and 1.22 away goals per game in Ligue 1 2025-2026
Based on 32 + 32 Ligue 1 2025-2026 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
3-4-2-1
vs Metz (A) 1-2 · 2 May 2026
Substitutes
49
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs LE Havre (H) 1-1 · 3 May 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 4 meetings
25%
75%
Monaco wins 0
Draws 1
Lille wins 3
Goals 3 (0.75 per game)
Goals 7 (1.75 per game)
50%
2
of 4
Over 1.5 Goals
25%
1
of 4
Over 2.5 Goals
25%
1
of 4
Over 3.5 Goals
25%
1
of 4
Both Teams Scored
25%
1
of 4
Monaco Clean Sheets
75%
3
of 4
Lille Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 4 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
W
D
D
L
W
W
D
D
L
W
W
W
W
W
W
1.69
16-6-10
PPG Overall
2.00
10-2-4
PPG at Home
1.38
6-4-6
PPG Away
D
W
D
W
W
D
W
D
W
W
W
W
D
W
W
1.81
17-7-8
PPG Overall
1.81
8-5-3
PPG at Home
1.81
9-2-5
PPG Away
Venue form: Monaco at home +10% on points per game vs Lille away (2.00 vs 1.81)
Rest & Schedule
8
days rest
Metz 1-2 Monaco
1 game in 14 days · 3 in 30 days
7
days rest
Lille 1-1 LE Havre
1 game in 14 days · 4 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
32
16
16
Win %
50%
63%
38%
Goals per game
3.25
3.44
3.06
Scored
1.75
2.06
1.44
Conceded
1.50
1.38
1.63
Both teams scored
66%
63%
69%
Clean sheets
22%
31%
13%
Failed to score
19%
6%
31%
xG
1.64
1.81
1.46
xGA
1.46
1.25
1.67
Overall
Home
Away
Played
32
16
16
Win %
53%
50%
56%
Goals per game
2.69
2.44
2.94
Scored
1.59
1.50
1.69
Conceded
1.09
0.94
1.25
Both teams scored
41%
50%
31%
Clean sheets
38%
38%
38%
Failed to score
28%
19%
38%
xG
1.57
1.68
1.47
xGA
1.07
0.89
1.24
Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Monaco
MON
Lille
LIL
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
94% 30/32
94% 30/32
94%
–
Over 1.5
75% 24/32
66% 21/32
70%
72%
Over 2.5
66% 21/32
41% 13/32
53%
53%
Over 3.5
53% 17/32
22% 7/32
38%
33%
Over 4.5
22% 7/32
19% 6/32
20%
–
Under 2.5
34% 11/32
59% 19/32
47%
47%
Both teams score
BTTS
66% 21/32
41% 13/32
53%
51%
BTTS & win
34% 11/32
22% 7/32
28%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
63% 20/32
28% 9/32
45%
–
Monaco
MON
Lille
LIL
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
66% 21/32
66% 21/32
66%
–
Over 1.5
28% 9/32
19% 6/32
23%
–
Over 2.5
16% 5/32
3% 1/32
9%
–
BTTS
22% 7/32
9% 3/32
16%
–
% of each club's games · League = Ligue 1 2025-2026 (287 games, 2.84 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
2.06 at home
1.69 away
Monaco scored 33 in 16 home games
Lille scored 27 in 16 away games
Monaco
MON
Lille
LIL
Scored over 0.5
81% 26/32
72% 23/32
Scored over 1.5
53% 17/32
34% 11/32
Scored over 2.5
25% 8/32
22% 7/32
Failed to score
19% 6/32
28% 9/32
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.38 at home
1.25 away
Monaco conceded 22 in 16 home games
Lille conceded 20 in 16 away games
Monaco
MON
Lille
LIL
Conceded over 0.5
78% 25/32
63% 20/32
Conceded over 1.5
41% 13/32
28% 9/32
Conceded over 2.5
22% 7/32
16% 5/32
Clean sheets
22% 7/32
38% 12/32
Streaks
Match Totals
Monaco
MON
Lille
LIL
League
Corners
Corners won
5.19
5.81
–
Corners conceded
4.19
3.78
–
Match total
9.39
9.59
9.49
Over 8.5
61% 19/31
53% 17/32
–
Over 9.5
48% 15/31
47% 15/32
–
Over 10.5
39% 12/31
38% 12/32
–
Cards
Cards
2.34
2.28
–
Opponent cards
1.78
2.03
–
Match total
4.13
4.31
3.97
Over 3.5
59% 19/32
66% 21/32
–
Over 4.5
34% 11/32
44% 14/32
–
Shots
Shots
12.28
13.59
–
Opponent shots
13.50
9.00
–
Match total
25.78
22.59
24.23
Shots on target
On target
4.31
4.69
–
Opponent on target
4.50
3.22
–
Match total
8.81
7.91
–
Fouls
Fouls
12.72
10.78
–
Opponent fouls
10.91
13.16
–
Match total
23.63
23.94
–
Possession
All games
54%
56%
–
Home games
55%
56%
–
Away games
53%
56%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Ligue 1 2025-2026 (287 games) · Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Monaco
Scored · 56
7%
13%
14%
20%
25%
21%
Conceded · 48
10%
13%
19%
12%
19%
27%
Lille
Scored · 51
10%
10%
10%
17%
8%
45%
Conceded · 35
9%
11%
17%
26%
20%
17%
47%
Scored first
57%
21%
Goals after 75'
45%
Scored first: Monaco 14 of 30, Lille 17 of 30 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
28%44%28%
Leading 9
Level 14
Trailing 9
1.28
points per game
At half-time
89%
8 of 9
Led at HT, won
44%
4 of 9
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 192nd 37
At half-time
34%41%25%
Leading 11
Level 13
Trailing 8
1.44
points per game
At half-time
91%
10 of 11
Led at HT, won
13%
1 of 8
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 152nd 36
14
Points won from losing positions in 16 · 14 games
14
4
Points dropped from winning positions in 18 · 20 games
6
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Latest Games
