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17 May 2026-7:00 pm
Stats Prediction
Result probability
18%
22%
60%
Nantes 18%
Draw 22%
Toulouse 60%
1.0 – 1.9
goals per side
Expected Goals
0-1
11% chance
Most Likely Score
54%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
NAN · at home
TOU · away
1.13
Goals scored per game
1.38
1.69
Goals conceded per game
1.38
0.70x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.13x
1.38x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.85x
Average: 1.62 home goals and 1.22 away goals per game in Ligue 1 2025-2026
Based on 33 + 32 Ligue 1 2025-2026 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
3-1-4-2
vs Lens (A) 1-0 · 8 May 2026
Substitutes
Last game lineup
3-4-2-1
vs Strasbourg (A) 1-2 · 3 May 2026
45
11
Substitutes
20
Head to Head
Last 4 meetings
25%
50%
25%
Nantes wins 1
Draws 2
Toulouse wins 1
Goals 6 (1.50 per game)
Goals 5 (1.25 per game)
75%
3
of 4
Over 1.5 Goals
75%
3
of 4
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
2
of 4
Over 3.5 Goals
75%
3
of 4
Both Teams Scored
25%
1
of 4
Nantes Clean Sheets
25%
1
of 4
Toulouse Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 4 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
L
W
L
L
D
L
W
L
L
D
D
D
L
L
L
0.70
5-8-20
PPG Overall
0.75
3-3-10
PPG at Home
0.65
2-5-10
PPG Away
W
D
L
L
L
W
D
L
L
L
W
W
L
L
D
1.28
11-8-13
PPG Overall
1.31
5-6-5
PPG at Home
1.25
6-2-8
PPG Away
Venue form: Toulouse away +67% on points per game vs Nantes at home (1.25 vs 0.75)
Rest & Schedule
9
days rest
Lens 1-0 Nantes
1 game in 14 days · 5 in 30 days
14
days rest
Strasbourg 1-2 Toulouse
0 games in 14 days · 2 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
33
16
17
Win %
15%
19%
12%
Goals per game
2.45
2.81
2.12
Scored
0.88
1.13
0.65
Conceded
1.58
1.69
1.47
Both teams scored
45%
50%
41%
Clean sheets
21%
19%
24%
Failed to score
42%
31%
53%
xG
1.08
1.11
1.04
xGA
1.44
1.47
1.40
Overall
Home
Away
Played
32
16
16
Win %
34%
31%
38%
Goals per game
2.81
2.88
2.75
Scored
1.41
1.44
1.38
Conceded
1.41
1.44
1.38
Both teams scored
47%
38%
56%
Clean sheets
28%
38%
19%
Failed to score
31%
38%
25%
xG
1.28
1.52
1.04
xGA
1.27
1.12
1.41
Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Nantes
NAN
Toulouse
TOU
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
91% 30/33
94% 30/32
92%
–
Over 1.5
67% 22/33
66% 21/32
66%
72%
Over 2.5
45% 15/33
53% 17/32
49%
53%
Over 3.5
21% 7/33
34% 11/32
28%
33%
Over 4.5
12% 4/33
13% 4/32
12%
–
Under 2.5
55% 18/33
47% 15/32
51%
47%
Both teams score
BTTS
45% 15/33
47% 15/32
46%
51%
BTTS & win
3% 1/33
13% 4/32
8%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
36% 12/33
41% 13/32
38%
–
Nantes
NAN
Toulouse
TOU
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
64% 21/33
72% 23/32
68%
–
Over 1.5
30% 10/33
34% 11/32
32%
–
Over 2.5
12% 4/33
9% 3/32
11%
–
BTTS
21% 7/33
16% 5/32
18%
–
% of each club's games · League = Ligue 1 2025-2026 (287 games, 2.84 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.13 at home
1.38 away
Nantes scored 18 in 16 home games
Toulouse scored 22 in 16 away games
Nantes
NAN
Toulouse
TOU
Scored over 0.5
58% 19/33
69% 22/32
Scored over 1.5
24% 8/33
44% 14/32
Scored over 2.5
6% 2/33
16% 5/32
Failed to score
42% 14/33
31% 10/32
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.69 at home
1.38 away
Nantes conceded 27 in 16 home games
Toulouse conceded 22 in 16 away games
Nantes
NAN
Toulouse
TOU
Conceded over 0.5
79% 26/33
72% 23/32
Conceded over 1.5
45% 15/33
38% 12/32
Conceded over 2.5
21% 7/33
19% 6/32
Clean sheets
21% 7/33
28% 9/32
Streaks
Match Totals
Nantes
NAN
Toulouse
TOU
League
Corners
Corners won
3.55
4.34
–
Corners conceded
5.84
5.00
–
Match total
9.39
9.34
9.49
Over 8.5
68% 21/31
56% 18/32
–
Over 9.5
48% 15/31
50% 16/32
–
Over 10.5
45% 14/31
44% 14/32
–
Cards
Cards
2.09
2.38
–
Opponent cards
2.36
2.00
–
Match total
4.45
4.38
3.97
Over 3.5
70% 23/33
72% 23/32
–
Over 4.5
42% 14/33
47% 15/32
–
Shots
Shots
11.09
12.66
–
Opponent shots
13.30
11.91
–
Match total
24.39
24.56
24.23
Shots on target
On target
3.47
4.29
–
Opponent on target
4.90
4.13
–
Match total
8.37
8.42
–
Fouls
Fouls
12.52
14.03
–
Opponent fouls
13.85
11.06
–
Match total
26.36
25.09
–
Possession
All games
42%
42%
–
Home games
44%
43%
–
Away games
40%
41%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Ligue 1 2025-2026 (287 games) · Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Nantes
Scored · 29
21%
4%
31%
17%
10%
17%
Conceded · 52
12%
15%
15%
13%
8%
37%
Toulouse
Scored · 45
18%
9%
16%
11%
13%
33%
Conceded · 45
11%
20%
18%
18%
11%
22%
30%
Scored first
40%
17%
Goals after 75'
33%
Scored first: Nantes 9 of 30, Toulouse 12 of 30 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
21%48%30%
Leading 7
Level 16
Trailing 10
1.12
points per game
At half-time
57%
4 of 7
Led at HT, won
20%
2 of 10
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 162nd 13
At half-time
25%34%41%
Leading 8
Level 11
Trailing 13
1.09
points per game
At half-time
75%
6 of 8
Led at HT, won
38%
5 of 13
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 192nd 26
2
Points won from losing positions in 22 · 21 games
12
9
Points dropped from winning positions in 9 · 14 games
8
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Latest Games
