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13 Dec 2026-5:30 pm
days
hours
minutes
seconds
Stats Prediction
Result probability
34%
26%
40%
Napoli 34%
Draw 26%
AC Milan 40%
1.3 – 1.4
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-1
12% chance
Most Likely Score
50%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
54%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
Napoli · all games
AC Milan · away
1.40
Goals scored per game
1.67
1.20
Goals conceded per game
1.33
0.95x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.17x
0.85x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.90x
Average: 1.48 home goals and 1.42 away goals per game in Serie A 2026-2027
Based on 5 + 5 Serie A 2026-2027 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Fiorentina (A) 1-1 · 20 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Last game lineup
3-4-2-1
vs Lecce (H) 3-0 · 20 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings
60%
10%
30%
Napoli wins 6
Draws 1
AC Milan wins 3
Goals 12 (1.20 per game)
Goals 11 (1.10 per game)
60%
6
of 10
Over 1.5 Goals
50%
5
of 10
Over 2.5 Goals
20%
2
of 10
Over 3.5 Goals
40%
4
of 10
Both Teams Scored
40%
4
of 10
Napoli Clean Sheets
20%
2
of 10
AC Milan Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 10 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Form & Points per Game
D
W
L
L
W
1.40
2-1-2
PPG Overall
1.50
1-0-1
PPG at Home
1.33
1-1-1
PPG Away
Venue form: AC Milan away +11% on points per game vs Napoli at home (1.67 vs 1.50)
Rest & Schedule
84
days rest
Fiorentina 1-1 Napoli
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
84
days rest
AC Milan 3-0 Lecce
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
5
2
3
Win %
40%
50%
33%
Goals per game
2.60
2.00
3.00
Scored
1.40
1.00
1.67
Conceded
1.20
1.00
1.33
Both teams scored
60%
50%
67%
Clean sheets
40%
50%
33%
Failed to score
0%
0%
0%
xG
1.44
1.29
1.53
xGA
1.40
0.67
1.89
Overall
Home
Away
Played
5
2
3
Win %
60%
100%
33%
Goals per game
2.80
2.50
3.00
Scored
2.00
2.50
1.67
Conceded
0.80
0.00
1.33
Both teams scored
60%
0%
100%
Clean sheets
40%
100%
0%
Failed to score
0%
0%
0%
xG
1.58
2.20
1.17
xGA
1.18
0.51
1.63
Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Napoli
NAP
AC Milan
AC
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
100% 5/5
100% 5/5
100%
–
Over 1.5
80% 4/5
100% 5/5
90%
82%
Over 2.5
40% 2/5
60% 3/5
50%
54%
Over 3.5
20% 1/5
20% 1/5
20%
28%
Over 4.5
20% 1/5
0% 0/5
10%
–
Under 2.5
60% 3/5
40% 2/5
50%
46%
Both teams score
BTTS
60% 3/5
60% 3/5
60%
58%
BTTS & win
0% 0/5
20% 1/5
10%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
40% 2/5
40% 2/5
40%
–
Napoli
NAP
AC Milan
AC
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
40% 2/5
40% 2/5
40%
–
Over 1.5
20% 1/5
20% 1/5
20%
–
Over 2.5
20% 1/5
0% 0/5
10%
–
BTTS
20% 1/5
0% 0/5
10%
–
% of each club's games · League = Serie A 2026-2027 (50 games, 2.90 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.00 at home
1.67 away
Napoli scored 2 in 2 home games
AC Milan scored 5 in 3 away games
Napoli
NAP
AC Milan
AC
Scored over 0.5
100% 5/5
100% 5/5
Scored over 1.5
40% 2/5
80% 4/5
Scored over 2.5
0% 0/5
20% 1/5
Failed to score
0% 0/5
0% 0/5
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.00 at home
1.33 away
Napoli conceded 2 in 2 home games
AC Milan conceded 4 in 3 away games
Napoli
NAP
AC Milan
AC
Conceded over 0.5
60% 3/5
60% 3/5
Conceded over 1.5
40% 2/5
20% 1/5
Conceded over 2.5
20% 1/5
0% 0/5
Clean sheets
40% 2/5
40% 2/5
Streaks
Match Totals
Napoli
NAP
AC Milan
AC
League
Corners
Corners won
5.40
2.80
–
Corners conceded
5.20
3.40
–
Match total
10.60
6.20
9.50
Over 8.5
100% 5/5
0% 0/5
–
Over 9.5
60% 3/5
0% 0/5
–
Over 10.5
20% 1/5
0% 0/5
–
Cards
Cards
0.80
1.60
–
Opponent cards
1.40
1.40
–
Match total
2.20
3.00
3.26
Over 3.5
0% 0/5
60% 3/5
–
Over 4.5
0% 0/5
20% 1/5
–
Shots
Shots
13.80
12.80
–
Opponent shots
16.60
9.00
–
Match total
30.40
21.80
29.14
Shots on target
On target
4.20
4.20
–
Opponent on target
4.40
3.40
–
Match total
8.60
7.60
–
Fouls
Fouls
9.60
10.20
–
Opponent fouls
8.60
12.20
–
Match total
18.20
22.40
–
Offsides
Offsides
3.20
1.40
–
Opponent offsides
1.00
2.80
–
Match total
4.20
4.20
–
Possession
All games
50%
61%
–
Home games
50%
64%
–
Away games
50%
59%
–
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Serie A 2026-2027 (50 games) · Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Napoli
Scored · 7
0%
29%
0%
29%
14%
28%
Conceded · 6
0%
17%
17%
33%
0%
33%
AC Milan
Scored · 10
10%
0%
0%
0%
80%
10%
Conceded · 4
25%
0%
25%
0%
0%
50%
80%
Scored first
80%
29%
Goals after 75'
10%
Scored first: Napoli 4 of 5, AC Milan 4 of 5 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
20%60%20%
Leading 1
Level 3
Trailing 1
1.20
points per game
At half-time
0%
0 of 1
Led at HT, won
0%
0 of 1
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 22nd 5
At half-time
20%60%20%
Leading 1
Level 3
Trailing 1
1.20
points per game
At half-time
100%
1 of 1
Led at HT, won
100%
1 of 1
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 12nd 9
0
Points won from losing positions in 2 · 1 games
1
5
Points dropped from winning positions in 4 · 4 games
2
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Latest Games
