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17 May 2026-7:00 pm
Stats Prediction
Result probability
50%
22%
28%
Nice 50%
Draw 22%
Metz 28%
2.0 – 1.5
goals per side
Expected Goals
2-1
9% chance
Most Likely Score
68%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
67%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
NIC · at home
MET · away
1.19
Goals scored per game
1.06
1.69
Goals conceded per game
2.75
0.73x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
0.87x
1.38x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
1.70x
Average: 1.62 home goals and 1.22 away goals per game in Ligue 1 2025-2026
Based on 32 + 32 Ligue 1 2025-2026 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
5-4-1
vs Lens (H) 1-1 · 2 May 2026
37
32
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Monaco (H) 1-2 · 2 May 2026
15
34
Substitutes
35
3
Head to Head
Last 3 meetings
67%
33%
Nice wins 2
Draws 0
Metz wins 1
Goals 3 (1.00 per game)
Goals 2 (0.67 per game)
33%
1
of 3
Over 1.5 Goals
33%
1
of 3
Over 2.5 Goals
0%
0
of 3
Over 3.5 Goals
33%
1
of 3
Both Teams Scored
67%
2
of 3
Nice Clean Sheets
0%
0
of 3
Metz Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 3 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
D
D
D
D
L
D
D
D
D
L
L
W
L
L
D
0.97
7-10-15
PPG Overall
1.19
4-7-5
PPG at Home
0.75
3-3-10
PPG Away
L
D
L
L
D
L
D
L
L
D
D
L
L
L
L
0.50
3-7-22
PPG Overall
0.63
2-4-10
PPG at Home
0.38
1-3-12
PPG Away
Venue form: Nice at home +213% on points per game vs Metz away (1.19 vs 0.38)
Rest & Schedule
15
days rest
Nice 1-1 Lens
0 games in 14 days · 3 in 30 days
15
days rest
Metz 1-2 Monaco
0 games in 14 days · 3 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
32
16
16
Win %
22%
25%
19%
Goals per game
2.94
2.88
3.00
Scored
1.13
1.19
1.06
Conceded
1.81
1.69
1.94
Both teams scored
59%
56%
63%
Clean sheets
16%
19%
13%
Failed to score
31%
31%
31%
xG
1.22
1.39
1.05
xGA
1.71
1.65
1.76
Overall
Home
Away
Played
32
16
16
Win %
9%
13%
6%
Goals per game
3.25
2.69
3.81
Scored
1.00
0.94
1.06
Conceded
2.25
1.75
2.75
Both teams scored
53%
50%
56%
Clean sheets
19%
25%
13%
Failed to score
41%
44%
38%
xG
1.01
1.19
0.84
xGA
1.74
1.29
2.20
Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Nice
NIC
Metz
MET
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
94% 30/32
88% 28/32
91%
–
Over 1.5
78% 25/32
75% 24/32
77%
72%
Over 2.5
50% 16/32
63% 20/32
56%
53%
Over 3.5
44% 14/32
41% 13/32
42%
33%
Over 4.5
19% 6/32
25% 8/32
22%
–
Under 2.5
50% 16/32
38% 12/32
44%
47%
Both teams score
BTTS
59% 19/32
53% 17/32
56%
51%
BTTS & win
13% 4/32
3% 1/32
8%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
44% 14/32
47% 15/32
45%
–
Nice
NIC
Metz
MET
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
75% 24/32
69% 22/32
72%
–
Over 1.5
41% 13/32
44% 14/32
42%
–
Over 2.5
25% 8/32
19% 6/32
22%
–
BTTS
22% 7/32
31% 10/32
27%
–
% of each club's games · League = Ligue 1 2025-2026 (287 games, 2.84 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.19 at home
1.06 away
Nice scored 19 in 16 home games
Metz scored 17 in 16 away games
Nice
NIC
Metz
MET
Scored over 0.5
69% 22/32
59% 19/32
Scored over 1.5
28% 9/32
31% 10/32
Scored over 2.5
13% 4/32
6% 2/32
Failed to score
31% 10/32
41% 13/32
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.69 at home
2.75 away
Nice conceded 27 in 16 home games
Metz conceded 44 in 16 away games
Nice
NIC
Metz
MET
Conceded over 0.5
84% 27/32
81% 26/32
Conceded over 1.5
47% 15/32
59% 19/32
Conceded over 2.5
28% 9/32
53% 17/32
Clean sheets
16% 5/32
19% 6/32
Streaks
Match Totals
Nice
NIC
Metz
MET
League
Corners
Corners won
5.03
4.16
–
Corners conceded
5.65
5.16
–
Match total
10.68
9.32
9.49
Over 8.5
71% 22/31
48% 15/31
–
Over 9.5
65% 20/31
35% 11/31
–
Over 10.5
48% 15/31
23% 7/31
–
Cards
Cards
2.16
1.69
–
Opponent cards
2.09
1.53
–
Match total
4.25
3.22
3.97
Over 3.5
63% 20/32
47% 15/32
–
Over 4.5
38% 12/32
22% 7/32
–
Shots
Shots
10.78
9.72
–
Opponent shots
14.69
14.84
–
Match total
25.47
24.56
24.23
Shots on target
On target
3.84
3.70
–
Opponent on target
5.09
5.63
–
Match total
8.94
9.33
–
Fouls
Fouls
12.38
11.16
–
Opponent fouls
11.41
11.16
–
Match total
23.78
22.31
–
Possession
All games
46%
49%
–
Home games
45%
50%
–
Away games
47%
48%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Ligue 1 2025-2026 (287 games) · Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Nice
Scored · 36
11%
17%
22%
20%
11%
19%
Conceded · 58
16%
10%
22%
16%
15%
21%
Metz
Scored · 32
13%
12%
19%
16%
6%
34%
Conceded · 72
17%
11%
18%
13%
12%
29%
40%
Scored first
25%
19%
Goals after 75'
34%
Scored first: Nice 12 of 30, Metz 7 of 28 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
28%25%47%
Leading 9
Level 8
Trailing 15
1.09
points per game
At half-time
56%
5 of 9
Led at HT, won
20%
3 of 15
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 182nd 18
At half-time
6%47%47%
Leading 2
Level 15
Trailing 15
0.66
points per game
At half-time
0%
0 of 2
Led at HT, won
7%
1 of 15
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 142nd 18
5
Points won from losing positions in 20 · 24 games
4
12
Points dropped from winning positions in 12 · 8 games
13
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Ligue 1 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Latest Games
