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10 Oct 2026-12:00 pm
Stats Prediction
Result probability
36%
28%
36%
Rayo Vallecano 36%
Draw 28%
Athletic Club 36%
1.2 – 1.2
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-1
13% chance
Most Likely Score
41%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
47%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
RAY · at home
BIL · all games
2.00
Goals scored per game
1.17
1.33
Goals conceded per game
1.00
1.17x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
0.88x
1.00x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.58x
Average: 1.71 home goals and 1.33 away goals per game in La Liga 2026-2027
Based on 7 + 6 La Liga 2026-2027 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-3-3
vs Osasuna (A) 1-1 · 19 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Alaves (H) 0-0 · 19 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 8 meetings
13%
25%
63%
Rayo Vallecano wins 1
Draws 2
Athletic Club wins 5
Goals 7 (0.88 per game)
Goals 12 (1.50 per game)
63%
5
of 8
Over 1.5 Goals
50%
4
of 8
Over 2.5 Goals
25%
2
of 8
Over 3.5 Goals
63%
5
of 8
Both Teams Scored
13%
1
of 8
Rayo Vallecano Clean Sheets
38%
3
of 8
Athletic Club Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 8 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
D
W
L
W
L
D
W
L
W
L
D
L
1.14
2-2-3
PPG Overall
2.33
2-1-0
PPG at Home
0.25
0-1-3
PPG Away
D
D
W
W
L
D
D
W
W
L
L
1.33
2-2-2
PPG Overall
1.25
1-2-1
PPG at Home
1.50
1-0-1
PPG Away
Venue form: Rayo Vallecano at home +55% on points per game vs Athletic Club away (2.33 vs 1.50)
Rest & Schedule
21
days rest
Osasuna 1-1 Rayo Vallecano
0 games in 14 days · 3 in 30 days
21
days rest
Athletic Club 0-0 Alaves
0 games in 14 days · 2 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
7
3
4
Win %
29%
67%
0%
Goals per game
3.86
3.33
4.25
Scored
1.57
2.00
1.25
Conceded
2.29
1.33
3.00
Both teams scored
100%
100%
100%
Clean sheets
0%
0%
0%
Failed to score
0%
0%
0%
xG
1.27
1.18
1.33
xGA
1.76
1.32
2.10
Overall
Home
Away
Played
6
4
2
Win %
33%
25%
50%
Goals per game
2.17
2.25
2.00
Scored
1.17
1.25
1.00
Conceded
1.00
1.00
1.00
Both teams scored
33%
50%
0%
Clean sheets
50%
50%
50%
Failed to score
33%
25%
50%
xG
1.62
1.67
1.52
xGA
1.22
0.58
2.49
La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
Athletic Club
BIL
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
100% 7/7
83% 5/6
92%
–
Over 1.5
100% 7/7
83% 5/6
92%
77%
Over 2.5
71% 5/7
33% 2/6
52%
57%
Over 3.5
43% 3/7
17% 1/6
30%
39%
Over 4.5
43% 3/7
0% 0/6
21%
–
Under 2.5
29% 2/7
67% 4/6
48%
43%
Both teams score
BTTS
100% 7/7
33% 2/6
67%
58%
BTTS & win
29% 2/7
0% 0/6
14%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
71% 5/7
17% 1/6
44%
–
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
Athletic Club
BIL
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
86% 6/7
50% 3/6
68%
–
Over 1.5
57% 4/7
17% 1/6
37%
–
Over 2.5
43% 3/7
0% 0/6
21%
–
BTTS
29% 2/7
0% 0/6
14%
–
% of each club's games · League = La Liga 2026-2027 (69 games, 3.04 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
2.00 at home
1.00 away
Rayo Vallecano scored 6 in 3 home games
Athletic Club scored 2 in 2 away games
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
Athletic Club
BIL
Scored over 0.5
100% 7/7
67% 4/6
Scored over 1.5
43% 3/7
33% 2/6
Scored over 2.5
14% 1/7
17% 1/6
Failed to score
0% 0/7
33% 2/6
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.33 at home
1.00 away
Rayo Vallecano conceded 4 in 3 home games
Athletic Club conceded 2 in 2 away games
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
Athletic Club
BIL
Conceded over 0.5
100% 7/7
50% 3/6
Conceded over 1.5
57% 4/7
33% 2/6
Conceded over 2.5
29% 2/7
17% 1/6
Clean sheets
0% 0/7
50% 3/6
Streaks
2
Unbeaten last loss 3 games ago
7
Scored all 7 this season
7
Conceded all 7 this season
7
Both teams scored all 7 this season
4
Unbeaten last loss 5 games ago
2
Longest win run this season
Match Totals
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
Athletic Club
BIL
League
Corners
Corners won
5.29
6.17
–
Corners conceded
6.14
4.83
–
Match total
11.43
11.00
9.65
Over 8.5
57% 4/7
67% 4/6
–
Over 9.5
57% 4/7
67% 4/6
–
Over 10.5
57% 4/7
67% 4/6
–
Cards
Cards
2.71
2.17
–
Opponent cards
2.00
1.67
–
Match total
4.71
3.83
4.42
Over 3.5
57% 4/7
33% 2/6
–
Over 4.5
57% 4/7
33% 2/6
–
Shots
Shots
13.43
15.67
–
Opponent shots
16.57
9.50
–
Match total
30.00
25.17
26.46
Shots on target
On target
4.57
4.67
–
Opponent on target
5.57
3.67
–
Match total
10.14
8.33
–
Fouls
Fouls
13.43
11.17
–
Opponent fouls
13.14
11.33
–
Match total
26.57
22.50
–
Offsides
Offsides
1.00
1.50
–
Opponent offsides
1.57
3.67
–
Match total
2.57
5.17
–
Possession
All games
49%
53%
–
Home games
51%
60%
–
Away games
47%
38%
–
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = La Liga 2026-2027 (69 games) · La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Rayo Vallecano
Scored · 11
27%
18%
9%
46%
0%
0%
Conceded · 16
13%
31%
6%
19%
6%
25%
Athletic Club
Scored · 7
0%
29%
0%
29%
14%
28%
Conceded · 6
17%
0%
17%
50%
0%
16%
57%
Scored first
40%
0%
Goals after 75'
29%
Scored first: Rayo Vallecano 4 of 7, Athletic Club 2 of 5 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
29%29%43%
Leading 2
Level 2
Trailing 3
1.14
points per game
At half-time
50%
1 of 2
Led at HT, won
33%
1 of 3
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 62nd 5
At half-time
17%50%33%
Leading 1
Level 3
Trailing 2
1.00
points per game
At half-time
100%
1 of 1
Led at HT, won
0%
0 of 2
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 22nd 5
4
Points won from losing positions in 5 · 3 games
1
8
Points dropped from winning positions in 5 · 2 games
0
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Latest Games
