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31 Jan 2027-4:00 pm
days
hours
minutes
seconds
Stats Prediction
Result probability
44%
23%
33%
Rayo Vallecano 44%
Draw 23%
Real Madrid 33%
1.8 – 1.5
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-1
10% chance
Most Likely Score
63%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
64%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
RAY · at home
Real Madrid · away
2.00
Goals scored per game
1.50
1.33
Goals conceded per game
1.50
1.17x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.13x
1.00x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.88x
Average: 1.71 home goals and 1.33 away goals per game in La Liga 2026-2027
Based on 7 + 7 La Liga 2026-2027 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-3-3
vs Osasuna (A) 1-1 · 19 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Atletico Madrid (A) 2-1 · 20 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 9 meetings
11%
22%
67%
Rayo Vallecano wins 1
Draws 2
Real Madrid wins 6
Goals 11 (1.22 per game)
Goals 18 (2.00 per game)
78%
7
of 9
Over 1.5 Goals
78%
7
of 9
Over 2.5 Goals
33%
3
of 9
Over 3.5 Goals
78%
7
of 9
Both Teams Scored
11%
1
of 9
Rayo Vallecano Clean Sheets
22%
2
of 9
Real Madrid Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 9 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
D
W
L
W
L
D
W
L
W
L
D
L
1.14
2-2-3
PPG Overall
2.33
2-1-0
PPG at Home
0.25
0-1-3
PPG Away
L
W
W
L
W
L
W
W
L
W
W
W
2.14
5-0-2
PPG Overall
3.00
3-0-0
PPG at Home
1.50
2-0-2
PPG Away
Venue form: Rayo Vallecano at home +55% on points per game vs Real Madrid away (2.33 vs 1.50)
Rest & Schedule
134
days rest
Osasuna 1-1 Rayo Vallecano
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
133
days rest
Atletico Madrid 2-1 Real Madrid
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
7
3
4
Win %
29%
67%
0%
Goals per game
3.86
3.33
4.25
Scored
1.57
2.00
1.25
Conceded
2.29
1.33
3.00
Both teams scored
100%
100%
100%
Clean sheets
0%
0%
0%
Failed to score
0%
0%
0%
xG
1.27
1.18
1.33
xGA
1.76
1.32
2.10
Overall
Home
Away
Played
7
3
4
Win %
71%
100%
50%
Goals per game
3.71
4.67
3.00
Scored
2.57
4.00
1.50
Conceded
1.14
0.67
1.50
Both teams scored
71%
67%
75%
Clean sheets
14%
33%
0%
Failed to score
14%
0%
25%
xG
2.64
2.79
2.52
xGA
1.09
0.83
1.28
La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
Real Madrid
REA
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
100% 7/7
100% 7/7
100%
–
Over 1.5
100% 7/7
86% 6/7
93%
77%
Over 2.5
71% 5/7
86% 6/7
79%
57%
Over 3.5
43% 3/7
57% 4/7
50%
39%
Over 4.5
43% 3/7
43% 3/7
43%
–
Under 2.5
29% 2/7
14% 1/7
21%
43%
Both teams score
BTTS
100% 7/7
71% 5/7
86%
58%
BTTS & win
29% 2/7
57% 4/7
43%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
71% 5/7
71% 5/7
71%
–
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
Real Madrid
REA
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
86% 6/7
71% 5/7
79%
–
Over 1.5
57% 4/7
71% 5/7
64%
–
Over 2.5
43% 3/7
29% 2/7
36%
–
BTTS
29% 2/7
29% 2/7
29%
–
% of each club's games · League = La Liga 2026-2027 (69 games, 3.04 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
2.00 at home
1.50 away
Rayo Vallecano scored 6 in 3 home games
Real Madrid scored 6 in 4 away games
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
Real Madrid
REA
Scored over 0.5
100% 7/7
86% 6/7
Scored over 1.5
43% 3/7
71% 5/7
Scored over 2.5
14% 1/7
57% 4/7
Failed to score
0% 0/7
14% 1/7
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.33 at home
1.50 away
Rayo Vallecano conceded 4 in 3 home games
Real Madrid conceded 6 in 4 away games
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
Real Madrid
REA
Conceded over 0.5
100% 7/7
86% 6/7
Conceded over 1.5
57% 4/7
29% 2/7
Conceded over 2.5
29% 2/7
0% 0/7
Clean sheets
0% 0/7
14% 1/7
Streaks
2
Unbeaten last loss 3 games ago
7
Scored all 7 this season
7
Conceded all 7 this season
7
Both teams scored all 7 this season
1
Lost last game
4
Conceded in a row
3
Scored in a row
3
Both teams scored in a row
3
Longest win run this season
Match Totals
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
Real Madrid
REA
League
Corners
Corners won
5.29
6.86
–
Corners conceded
6.14
4.14
–
Match total
11.43
11.00
9.65
Over 8.5
57% 4/7
57% 4/7
–
Over 9.5
57% 4/7
57% 4/7
–
Over 10.5
57% 4/7
57% 4/7
–
Cards
Cards
2.71
1.86
–
Opponent cards
2.00
2.86
–
Match total
4.71
4.71
4.42
Over 3.5
57% 4/7
71% 5/7
–
Over 4.5
57% 4/7
71% 5/7
–
Shots
Shots
13.43
18.86
–
Opponent shots
16.57
12.71
–
Match total
30.00
31.57
26.46
Shots on target
On target
4.57
7.57
–
Opponent on target
5.57
4.43
–
Match total
10.14
12.00
–
Fouls
Fouls
13.43
8.43
–
Opponent fouls
13.14
14.29
–
Match total
26.57
22.71
–
Offsides
Offsides
1.00
1.86
–
Opponent offsides
1.57
1.14
–
Match total
2.57
3.00
–
Possession
All games
49%
52%
–
Home games
51%
54%
–
Away games
47%
51%
–
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = La Liga 2026-2027 (69 games) · La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Rayo Vallecano
Scored · 11
27%
18%
9%
46%
0%
0%
Conceded · 16
13%
31%
6%
19%
6%
25%
Real Madrid
Scored · 18
11%
28%
17%
6%
5%
33%
Conceded · 8
0%
13%
13%
37%
12%
25%
57%
Scored first
71%
0%
Goals after 75'
33%
Scored first: Rayo Vallecano 4 of 7, Real Madrid 5 of 7 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
29%29%43%
Leading 2
Level 2
Trailing 3
1.14
points per game
At half-time
50%
1 of 2
Led at HT, won
33%
1 of 3
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 62nd 5
At half-time
43%57%
Leading 3
Level 4
Trailing 0
1.86
points per game
At half-time
100%
3 of 3
Led at HT, won
–
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 102nd 8
4
Points won from losing positions in 5 · 2 games
0
8
Points dropped from winning positions in 5 · 5 games
0
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
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