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4 Apr 2027-3:00 pm
days
hours
minutes
seconds
Stats Prediction
Result probability
79%
12%
9%
Real Madrid 79%
Draw 12%
Atletico Madrid 9%
3.1 – 1.0
goals per side
Expected Goals
3-0
8% chance
Most Likely Score
78%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
Real Madrid · at home
Atletico Madrid · away
4.00
Goals scored per game
2.00
0.67
Goals conceded per game
1.33
2.34x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.50x
0.50x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.78x
Average: 1.71 home goals and 1.33 away goals per game in La Liga 2026-2027
Based on 7 + 7 La Liga 2026-2027 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Atletico Madrid (A) 2-1 · 20 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-4-2
vs Real Madrid (H) 2-1 · 20 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 9 meetings
33%
33%
33%
Real Madrid wins 3
Draws 3
Atletico Madrid wins 3
Goals 13 (1.44 per game)
Goals 14 (1.56 per game)
89%
8
of 9
Over 1.5 Goals
44%
4
of 9
Over 2.5 Goals
22%
2
of 9
Over 3.5 Goals
78%
7
of 9
Both Teams Scored
11%
1
of 9
Real Madrid Clean Sheets
11%
1
of 9
Atletico Madrid Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 9 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
L
W
W
L
W
L
W
W
L
W
W
W
2.14
5-0-2
PPG Overall
3.00
3-0-0
PPG at Home
1.50
2-0-2
PPG Away
W
W
W
L
W
W
W
W
L
W
D
W
2.29
5-1-1
PPG Overall
2.50
3-1-0
PPG at Home
2.00
2-0-1
PPG Away
Venue form: Real Madrid at home +50% on points per game vs Atletico Madrid away (3.00 vs 2.00)
Rest & Schedule
196
days rest
Atletico Madrid 2-1 Real Madrid
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
196
days rest
Atletico Madrid 2-1 Real Madrid
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
7
3
4
Win %
71%
100%
50%
Goals per game
3.71
4.67
3.00
Scored
2.57
4.00
1.50
Conceded
1.14
0.67
1.50
Both teams scored
71%
67%
75%
Clean sheets
14%
33%
0%
Failed to score
14%
0%
25%
xG
2.64
2.79
2.52
xGA
1.09
0.83
1.28
Overall
Home
Away
Played
7
4
3
Win %
71%
75%
67%
Goals per game
3.29
3.25
3.33
Scored
2.29
2.50
2.00
Conceded
1.00
0.75
1.33
Both teams scored
43%
50%
33%
Clean sheets
43%
50%
33%
Failed to score
14%
0%
33%
xG
1.72
2.01
1.33
xGA
1.02
1.13
0.86
La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Real Madrid
REA
Atletico Madrid
ATL
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
100% 7/7
100% 7/7
100%
–
Over 1.5
86% 6/7
100% 7/7
93%
77%
Over 2.5
86% 6/7
86% 6/7
86%
57%
Over 3.5
57% 4/7
43% 3/7
50%
39%
Over 4.5
43% 3/7
0% 0/7
21%
–
Under 2.5
14% 1/7
14% 1/7
14%
43%
Both teams score
BTTS
71% 5/7
43% 3/7
57%
58%
BTTS & win
57% 4/7
29% 2/7
43%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
71% 5/7
43% 3/7
57%
–
Real Madrid
REA
Atletico Madrid
ATL
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
71% 5/7
29% 2/7
50%
–
Over 1.5
71% 5/7
14% 1/7
43%
–
Over 2.5
29% 2/7
14% 1/7
21%
–
BTTS
29% 2/7
0% 0/7
14%
–
% of each club's games · League = La Liga 2026-2027 (69 games, 3.04 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
4.00 at home
2.00 away
Real Madrid scored 12 in 3 home games
Atletico Madrid scored 6 in 3 away games
Real Madrid
REA
Atletico Madrid
ATL
Scored over 0.5
86% 6/7
86% 6/7
Scored over 1.5
71% 5/7
86% 6/7
Scored over 2.5
57% 4/7
43% 3/7
Failed to score
14% 1/7
14% 1/7
Goals conceded per game at this venue
0.67 at home
1.33 away
Real Madrid conceded 2 in 3 home games
Atletico Madrid conceded 4 in 3 away games
Real Madrid
REA
Atletico Madrid
ATL
Conceded over 0.5
86% 6/7
57% 4/7
Conceded over 1.5
29% 2/7
29% 2/7
Conceded over 2.5
0% 0/7
14% 1/7
Clean sheets
14% 1/7
43% 3/7
Streaks
1
Lost last game
4
Conceded in a row
3
Scored in a row
3
Both teams scored in a row
3
Longest win run this season
3
Won in a row
6
Over 2.5 goals in a row
3
Scored in a row
Match Totals
Real Madrid
REA
Atletico Madrid
ATL
League
Corners
Corners won
6.86
5.00
–
Corners conceded
4.14
3.00
–
Match total
11.00
8.00
9.65
Over 8.5
57% 4/7
29% 2/7
–
Over 9.5
57% 4/7
29% 2/7
–
Over 10.5
57% 4/7
29% 2/7
–
Cards
Cards
1.86
1.86
–
Opponent cards
2.86
2.00
–
Match total
4.71
3.86
4.42
Over 3.5
71% 5/7
57% 4/7
–
Over 4.5
71% 5/7
43% 3/7
–
Shots
Shots
18.86
17.00
–
Opponent shots
12.71
9.71
–
Match total
31.57
26.71
26.46
Shots on target
On target
7.57
6.43
–
Opponent on target
4.43
3.29
–
Match total
12.00
9.71
–
Fouls
Fouls
8.43
12.29
–
Opponent fouls
14.29
11.86
–
Match total
22.71
24.14
–
Offsides
Offsides
1.86
1.71
–
Opponent offsides
1.14
1.14
–
Match total
3.00
2.86
–
Possession
All games
52%
57%
–
Home games
54%
59%
–
Away games
51%
55%
–
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = La Liga 2026-2027 (69 games) · La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Real Madrid
Scored · 18
11%
28%
17%
6%
5%
33%
Conceded · 8
0%
13%
13%
37%
12%
25%
Atletico Madrid
Scored · 16
6%
13%
6%
25%
13%
37%
Conceded · 7
0%
0%
0%
29%
28%
43%
71%
Scored first
86%
33%
Goals after 75'
38%
Scored first: Real Madrid 5 of 7, Atletico Madrid 6 of 7 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
43%57%
Leading 3
Level 4
Trailing 0
1.86
points per game
At half-time
100%
3 of 3
Led at HT, won
–
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 102nd 8
At half-time
29%71%
Leading 2
Level 5
Trailing 0
1.57
points per game
At half-time
100%
2 of 2
Led at HT, won
–
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 42nd 12
0
Points won from losing positions in 2 · 2 games
1
0
Points dropped from winning positions in 5 · 6 games
2
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Latest Games
