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28 Feb 2027-4:00 pm
days
hours
minutes
seconds
Stats Prediction
Result probability
91%
Real Madrid 91%
Draw 7%
Valencia 2%
3.1 – 0.3
goals per side
Expected Goals
3-0
16% chance
Most Likely Score
67%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
27%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
Real Madrid · at home
Valencia · away
4.00
Goals scored per game
0.67
0.67
Goals conceded per game
1.33
2.34x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
0.50x
0.50x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.78x
Average: 1.71 home goals and 1.33 away goals per game in La Liga 2026-2027
Based on 7 + 7 La Liga 2026-2027 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Atletico Madrid (A) 2-1 · 20 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-4-2
vs Real Sociedad (H) 2-3 · 20 Sep 2026
33
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 8 meetings
75%
25%
Real Madrid wins 6
Draws 0
Valencia wins 2
Goals 17 (2.13 per game)
Goals 6 (0.75 per game)
88%
7
of 8
Over 1.5 Goals
63%
5
of 8
Over 2.5 Goals
25%
2
of 8
Over 3.5 Goals
50%
4
of 8
Both Teams Scored
38%
3
of 8
Real Madrid Clean Sheets
13%
1
of 8
Valencia Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 8 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
L
W
W
L
W
L
W
W
L
W
W
W
2.14
5-0-2
PPG Overall
3.00
3-0-0
PPG at Home
1.50
2-0-2
PPG Away
L
W
L
L
L
L
W
L
L
L
L
D
0.57
1-1-5
PPG Overall
0.25
0-1-3
PPG at Home
1.00
1-0-2
PPG Away
Venue form: Real Madrid at home +200% on points per game vs Valencia away (3.00 vs 1.00)
Rest & Schedule
161
days rest
Atletico Madrid 2-1 Real Madrid
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
161
days rest
Valencia 2-3 Real Sociedad
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
7
3
4
Win %
71%
100%
50%
Goals per game
3.71
4.67
3.00
Scored
2.57
4.00
1.50
Conceded
1.14
0.67
1.50
Both teams scored
71%
67%
75%
Clean sheets
14%
33%
0%
Failed to score
14%
0%
25%
xG
2.64
2.79
2.52
xGA
1.09
0.83
1.28
Overall
Home
Away
Played
7
4
3
Win %
14%
0%
33%
Goals per game
2.43
2.75
2.00
Scored
0.57
0.50
0.67
Conceded
1.86
2.25
1.33
Both teams scored
29%
25%
33%
Clean sheets
29%
25%
33%
Failed to score
57%
75%
33%
xG
0.87
0.98
0.72
xGA
1.64
2.03
1.13
La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Real Madrid
REA
Valencia
VAL
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
100% 7/7
86% 6/7
93%
–
Over 1.5
86% 6/7
43% 3/7
64%
77%
Over 2.5
86% 6/7
43% 3/7
64%
57%
Over 3.5
57% 4/7
43% 3/7
50%
39%
Over 4.5
43% 3/7
29% 2/7
36%
–
Under 2.5
14% 1/7
57% 4/7
36%
43%
Both teams score
BTTS
71% 5/7
29% 2/7
50%
58%
BTTS & win
57% 4/7
0% 0/7
29%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
71% 5/7
29% 2/7
50%
–
Real Madrid
REA
Valencia
VAL
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
71% 5/7
43% 3/7
57%
–
Over 1.5
71% 5/7
29% 2/7
50%
–
Over 2.5
29% 2/7
14% 1/7
21%
–
BTTS
29% 2/7
14% 1/7
21%
–
% of each club's games · League = La Liga 2026-2027 (69 games, 3.04 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
4.00 at home
Real Madrid scored 12 in 3 home games
Valencia scored 2 in 3 away games
Real Madrid
REA
Valencia
VAL
Scored over 0.5
86% 6/7
43% 3/7
Scored over 1.5
71% 5/7
14% 1/7
Scored over 2.5
57% 4/7
0% 0/7
Failed to score
14% 1/7
57% 4/7
Goals conceded per game at this venue
0.67 at home
1.33 away
Real Madrid conceded 2 in 3 home games
Valencia conceded 4 in 3 away games
Real Madrid
REA
Valencia
VAL
Conceded over 0.5
86% 6/7
71% 5/7
Conceded over 1.5
29% 2/7
43% 3/7
Conceded over 2.5
0% 0/7
43% 3/7
Clean sheets
14% 1/7
29% 2/7
Streaks
1
Lost last game
4
Conceded in a row
3
Scored in a row
3
Both teams scored in a row
3
Longest win run this season
1
Lost last game
2
Scored in a row
Match Totals
Real Madrid
REA
Valencia
VAL
League
Corners
Corners won
6.86
4.43
–
Corners conceded
4.14
3.71
–
Match total
11.00
8.14
9.65
Over 8.5
57% 4/7
57% 4/7
–
Over 9.5
57% 4/7
57% 4/7
–
Over 10.5
57% 4/7
14% 1/7
–
Cards
Cards
1.86
2.00
–
Opponent cards
2.86
2.00
–
Match total
4.71
4.00
4.42
Over 3.5
71% 5/7
57% 4/7
–
Over 4.5
71% 5/7
43% 3/7
–
Shots
Shots
18.86
10.57
–
Opponent shots
12.71
15.29
–
Match total
31.57
25.86
26.46
Shots on target
On target
7.57
2.71
–
Opponent on target
4.43
4.71
–
Match total
12.00
7.43
–
Fouls
Fouls
8.43
10.57
–
Opponent fouls
14.29
10.71
–
Match total
22.71
21.29
–
Offsides
Offsides
1.86
2.29
–
Opponent offsides
1.14
2.14
–
Match total
3.00
4.43
–
Possession
All games
52%
48%
–
Home games
54%
42%
–
Away games
51%
55%
–
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = La Liga 2026-2027 (69 games) · La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Real Madrid
Scored · 18
11%
28%
17%
6%
5%
33%
Conceded · 8
0%
13%
13%
37%
12%
25%
Valencia
Scored · 4
0%
25%
0%
25%
0%
50%
Conceded · 13
16%
23%
0%
15%
0%
46%
71%
Scored first
17%
33%
Goals after 75'
50%
Scored first: Real Madrid 5 of 7, Valencia 1 of 6 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
43%57%
Leading 3
Level 4
Trailing 0
1.86
points per game
At half-time
100%
3 of 3
Led at HT, won
–
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 102nd 8
At half-time
57%43%
Leading 0
Level 4
Trailing 3
0.57
points per game
At half-time
–
Led at HT, won
0%
0 of 3
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 12nd 3
0
Points won from losing positions in 2 · 5 games
0
0
Points dropped from winning positions in 5 · 1 games
0
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · La Liga 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Latest Games
