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11 Oct 2026-4:00 pm
Stats Prediction
Result probability
30%
21%
49%
Sassuolo 30%
Draw 21%
AC Milan 49%
1.6 – 2.1
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-2
9% chance
Most Likely Score
72%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
71%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
Sassuolo · all games
AC Milan · away
1.80
Goals scored per game
1.67
1.80
Goals conceded per game
1.33
1.22x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.17x
1.27x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.90x
Average: 1.48 home goals and 1.42 away goals per game in Serie A 2026-2027
Based on 5 + 5 Serie A 2026-2027 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-3-3
vs Monza (A) 2-1 · 18 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Last game lineup
3-4-2-1
vs Lecce (H) 3-0 · 20 Sep 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings
40%
20%
40%
Sassuolo wins 4
Draws 2
AC Milan wins 4
Goals 16 (1.60 per game)
Goals 14 (1.40 per game)
80%
8
of 10
Over 1.5 Goals
70%
7
of 10
Over 2.5 Goals
30%
3
of 10
Over 3.5 Goals
60%
6
of 10
Both Teams Scored
20%
2
of 10
Sassuolo Clean Sheets
30%
3
of 10
AC Milan Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 10 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
L
W
D
W
L
1.40
2-1-2
PPG Overall
3.00
2-0-0
PPG at Home
0.33
0-1-2
PPG Away
Venue form: Sassuolo at home +80% on points per game vs AC Milan away (3.00 vs 1.67)
Rest & Schedule
23
days rest
Monza 2-1 Sassuolo
0 games in 14 days · 2 in 30 days
21
days rest
AC Milan 3-0 Lecce
0 games in 14 days · 2 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
5
2
3
Win %
40%
100%
0%
Goals per game
3.60
4.00
3.33
Scored
1.80
2.50
1.33
Conceded
1.80
1.50
2.00
Both teams scored
100%
100%
100%
Clean sheets
0%
0%
0%
Failed to score
0%
0%
0%
xG
1.73
1.44
1.93
xGA
1.33
1.18
1.42
Overall
Home
Away
Played
5
2
3
Win %
60%
100%
33%
Goals per game
2.80
2.50
3.00
Scored
2.00
2.50
1.67
Conceded
0.80
0.00
1.33
Both teams scored
60%
0%
100%
Clean sheets
40%
100%
0%
Failed to score
0%
0%
0%
xG
1.58
2.20
1.17
xGA
1.18
0.51
1.63
Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Sassuolo
SAS
AC Milan
AC
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
100% 5/5
100% 5/5
100%
–
Over 1.5
100% 5/5
100% 5/5
100%
82%
Over 2.5
100% 5/5
60% 3/5
80%
54%
Over 3.5
40% 2/5
20% 1/5
30%
28%
Over 4.5
20% 1/5
0% 0/5
10%
–
Under 2.5
0% 0/5
40% 2/5
20%
46%
Both teams score
BTTS
100% 5/5
60% 3/5
80%
58%
BTTS & win
40% 2/5
20% 1/5
30%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
100% 5/5
40% 2/5
70%
–
Sassuolo
SAS
AC Milan
AC
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
60% 3/5
40% 2/5
50%
–
Over 1.5
20% 1/5
20% 1/5
20%
–
Over 2.5
0% 0/5
0% 0/5
0%
–
BTTS
20% 1/5
0% 0/5
10%
–
% of each club's games · League = Serie A 2026-2027 (50 games, 2.90 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
2.50 at home
1.67 away
Sassuolo scored 5 in 2 home games
AC Milan scored 5 in 3 away games
Sassuolo
SAS
AC Milan
AC
Scored over 0.5
100% 5/5
100% 5/5
Scored over 1.5
60% 3/5
80% 4/5
Scored over 2.5
20% 1/5
20% 1/5
Failed to score
0% 0/5
0% 0/5
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.50 at home
1.33 away
Sassuolo conceded 3 in 2 home games
AC Milan conceded 4 in 3 away games
Sassuolo
SAS
AC Milan
AC
Conceded over 0.5
100% 5/5
60% 3/5
Conceded over 1.5
80% 4/5
20% 1/5
Conceded over 2.5
0% 0/5
0% 0/5
Clean sheets
0% 0/5
40% 2/5
Streaks
Match Totals
Sassuolo
SAS
AC Milan
AC
League
Corners
Corners won
4.60
2.80
–
Corners conceded
6.80
3.40
–
Match total
11.40
6.20
9.50
Over 8.5
60% 3/5
0% 0/5
–
Over 9.5
60% 3/5
0% 0/5
–
Over 10.5
60% 3/5
0% 0/5
–
Cards
Cards
1.40
1.60
–
Opponent cards
1.80
1.40
–
Match total
3.20
3.00
3.26
Over 3.5
60% 3/5
60% 3/5
–
Over 4.5
20% 1/5
20% 1/5
–
Shots
Shots
17.20
12.80
–
Opponent shots
15.80
9.00
–
Match total
33.00
21.80
29.14
Shots on target
On target
7.00
4.20
–
Opponent on target
6.00
3.40
–
Match total
13.00
7.60
–
Fouls
Fouls
8.80
10.20
–
Opponent fouls
11.60
12.20
–
Match total
20.40
22.40
–
Offsides
Offsides
2.40
1.40
–
Opponent offsides
0.40
2.80
–
Match total
2.80
4.20
–
Possession
All games
47%
61%
–
Home games
44%
64%
–
Away games
49%
59%
–
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Serie A 2026-2027 (50 games) · Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Sassuolo
Scored · 9
0%
11%
11%
22%
11%
45%
Conceded · 9
11%
0%
11%
22%
22%
34%
AC Milan
Scored · 10
10%
0%
0%
0%
80%
10%
Conceded · 4
25%
0%
25%
0%
0%
50%
60%
Scored first
80%
44%
Goals after 75'
10%
Scored first: Sassuolo 3 of 5, AC Milan 4 of 5 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
20%60%20%
Leading 1
Level 3
Trailing 1
1.20
points per game
At half-time
0%
0 of 1
Led at HT, won
0%
0 of 1
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 22nd 7
At half-time
20%60%20%
Leading 1
Level 3
Trailing 1
1.20
points per game
At half-time
100%
1 of 1
Led at HT, won
100%
1 of 1
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 12nd 9
0
Points won from losing positions in 2 · 1 games
1
2
Points dropped from winning positions in 3 · 4 games
2
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Serie A 2026-2027 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Latest Games
