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17 May 2026-5:00 pm
Stats Prediction
Result probability
14%
19%
67%
Sevilla 14%
Draw 19%
Real Madrid 67%
0.9 – 2.1
goals per side
Expected Goals
0-2
12% chance
Most Likely Score
57%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
SEV · at home
Real Madrid · away
1.33
Goals scored per game
1.82
1.33
Goals conceded per game
1.00
0.85x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.60x
1.17x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.64x
Average: 1.57 home goals and 1.14 away goals per game in La Liga 2025-2026
Based on 35 + 34 La Liga 2025-2026 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-4-2
vs Espanyol (H) 2-1 · 9 May 2026
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-4-2
vs Espanyol (A) 0-2 · 3 May 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 7 meetings
100%
Sevilla wins 0
Draws 0
Real Madrid wins 7
Goals 7 (1.00 per game)
Goals 18 (2.57 per game)
100%
7
of 7
Over 1.5 Goals
71%
5
of 7
Over 2.5 Goals
43%
3
of 7
Over 3.5 Goals
71%
5
of 7
Both Teams Scored
0%
0
of 7
Sevilla Clean Sheets
29%
2
of 7
Real Madrid Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 7 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Opponent
Sevilla
SEV
Real Madrid
REA
Points on these 5
10 of 30 · 1.00 per game
25 of 30 · 2.50 per game
Form & Points per Game
W
W
L
L
W
W
W
L
L
W
L
L
L
D
D
1.14
11-7-17
PPG Overall
1.39
7-4-7
PPG at Home
0.88
4-3-10
PPG Away
W
D
W
D
L
W
D
W
D
L
W
W
W
L
L
2.26
24-5-5
PPG Overall
2.53
14-1-2
PPG at Home
2.00
10-4-3
PPG Away
Venue form: Real Madrid away +44% on points per game vs Sevilla at home (2.00 vs 1.39)
Rest & Schedule
8
days rest
Sevilla 2-1 Espanyol
2 games in 14 days · 4 in 30 days
14
days rest
Espanyol 0-2 Real Madrid
1 game in 14 days · 3 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
35
18
17
Win %
31%
39%
24%
Goals per game
2.83
2.67
3.00
Scored
1.23
1.33
1.12
Conceded
1.60
1.33
1.88
Both teams scored
60%
61%
59%
Clean sheets
17%
17%
18%
Failed to score
23%
22%
24%
xG
1.04
1.18
0.88
xGA
1.49
1.26
1.73
Overall
Home
Away
Played
34
17
17
Win %
71%
82%
59%
Goals per game
2.97
3.12
2.82
Scored
2.06
2.29
1.82
Conceded
0.91
0.82
1.00
Both teams scored
59%
59%
59%
Clean sheets
35%
29%
41%
Failed to score
9%
12%
6%
xG
2.01
2.29
1.72
xGA
1.09
0.92
1.25
La Liga 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Sevilla
SEV
Real Madrid
REA
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
100% 35/35
97% 33/34
99%
–
Over 1.5
83% 29/35
88% 30/34
86%
79%
Over 2.5
57% 20/35
59% 20/34
58%
51%
Over 3.5
26% 9/35
26% 9/34
26%
26%
Over 4.5
11% 4/35
18% 6/34
15%
–
Under 2.5
43% 15/35
41% 14/34
42%
49%
Both teams score
BTTS
60% 21/35
59% 20/34
59%
57%
BTTS & win
14% 5/35
38% 13/34
26%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
49% 17/35
50% 17/34
49%
–
Sevilla
SEV
Real Madrid
REA
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
69% 24/35
68% 23/34
68%
–
Over 1.5
34% 12/35
29% 10/34
32%
–
Over 2.5
11% 4/35
15% 5/34
13%
–
BTTS
23% 8/35
15% 5/34
19%
–
% of each club's games · League = La Liga 2025-2026 (345 games, 2.70 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.33 at home
1.82 away
Sevilla scored 24 in 18 home games
Real Madrid scored 31 in 17 away games
Sevilla
SEV
Real Madrid
REA
Scored over 0.5
77% 27/35
91% 31/34
Scored over 1.5
34% 12/35
71% 24/34
Scored over 2.5
6% 2/35
26% 9/34
Failed to score
23% 8/35
9% 3/34
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.33 at home
1.00 away
Sevilla conceded 24 in 18 home games
Real Madrid conceded 17 in 17 away games
Sevilla
SEV
Real Madrid
REA
Conceded over 0.5
83% 29/35
65% 22/34
Conceded over 1.5
51% 18/35
18% 6/34
Conceded over 2.5
17% 6/35
3% 1/34
Clean sheets
17% 6/35
35% 12/34
Streaks
2
Won in a row
3
Scored in a row
4
Unbeaten last loss 5 games ago
8
Scored in a row
8
Longest win run this season
Match Totals
Sevilla
SEV
Real Madrid
REA
League
Corners
Corners won
4.97
6.35
–
Corners conceded
4.50
3.94
–
Match total
9.47
10.29
9.65
Over 8.5
56% 19/34
77% 24/31
–
Over 9.5
53% 18/34
65% 20/31
–
Over 10.5
35% 12/34
45% 14/31
–
Cards
Cards
2.89
2.00
–
Opponent cards
2.26
2.59
–
Match total
5.14
4.59
4.62
Over 3.5
69% 24/35
50% 17/34
–
Over 4.5
57% 20/35
44% 15/34
–
Shots
Shots
11.34
17.65
–
Opponent shots
10.40
10.59
–
Match total
21.74
28.24
24.67
Shots on target
On target
3.69
6.63
–
Opponent on target
4.44
3.40
–
Match total
8.13
10.03
–
Fouls
Fouls
14.66
10.47
–
Opponent fouls
12.86
13.29
–
Match total
27.51
23.76
–
Possession
All games
52%
59%
–
Home games
53%
60%
–
Away games
51%
59%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = La Liga 2025-2026 (345 games) · La Liga 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Sevilla
Scored · 43
12%
12%
16%
18%
14%
28%
Conceded · 56
7%
11%
25%
19%
11%
27%
Real Madrid
Scored · 70
7%
15%
20%
20%
14%
24%
Conceded · 31
3%
10%
23%
19%
19%
26%
43%
Scored first
73%
28%
Goals after 75'
24%
Scored first: Sevilla 15 of 35, Real Madrid 24 of 33 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · La Liga 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
23%43%34%
Leading 8
Level 15
Trailing 12
1.11
points per game
At half-time
50%
4 of 8
Led at HT, won
25%
3 of 12
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 172nd 26
At half-time
47%38%15%
Leading 16
Level 13
Trailing 5
1.79
points per game
At half-time
94%
15 of 16
Led at HT, won
40%
2 of 5
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 292nd 41
10
Points won from losing positions in 23 · 9 games
8
14
Points dropped from winning positions in 17 · 27 games
7
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · La Liga 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
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